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Pot Odds: Turn + River

  
 
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steviebrutal
Old 12-25-2004, 10:53 AM     Post subject: Pot Odds: Turn + River #1 (permalink)  
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Lately ive been going deep into my hand histories looking for blatant holes in my game... I think that this could be one of them, but im still undecided.

I generally make my drawing decisions on the flop based on the odds that I would turn OR river an out. On second look at this technique, it seems that it is flawed... especially in a situation where if you dont turn the out, you wouldnt have the odds to call any bet. In that fashion, turn+river pot odds dont make alot of sense.

On the other hand, one of the pivotal ideas I have learned since reading SSH is that if you have an edge you should push it. Subsequently, giving up those edges can cost you profit in the long run. If you have the odds to turn or river an out, but not the odds to turn the out - what do you think is the best course of action?

My first notion would be to build a pot worthy of winning for the turn. Is that mathematically a good decision - going against your odds for the next card to build a pot that you could draw to again, on the premise that your odds to draw out on 2 cards are justified?

Thanks in advance for any replies.

P.S. Happy Holidays to everyone.
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Fnord
Old 12-25-2004, 05:09 PM #2 (permalink)  
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Post some hands.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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steviebrutal
Old 12-26-2004, 06:40 AM #3 (permalink)  
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heres one, ill post as I get them:

Texas Hold'em $0.50-$1{spam link}(real money),{spam link}hand{spam link}#524,486,085

Table Kandy,{spam link}25 Dec 2004 02:20 AM

Seat{spam link}2:{spam link}footer41{spam link}($30.70{spam link}in{spam link}chips)

Seat{spam link}3:{spam link}Swell Larry{spam link}($9.95{spam link}in{spam link}chips)

Seat{spam link}5:{spam link}Yippi{spam link}($91.55{spam link}in{spam link}chips)

Seat{spam link}6:{spam link}Jayhawk1{spam link}($16{spam link}in{spam link}chips)

Seat{spam link}7:{spam link}SMOKEY0420{spam link}($8{spam link}in{spam link}chips)

Seat{spam link}8:{spam link}xbruticusx{spam link}[JC,10D]{spam link}($29.50{spam link}in{spam link}chips)

Seat{spam link}9:{spam link}sammy1260{spam link}($16.25{spam link}in{spam link}chips)

Seat{spam link}10:{spam link}topnotch35{spam link}($32.30{spam link}in{spam link}chips)

ANTES/BLINDS
SMOKEY0420 posts blind ($0.25), xbruticusx posts blind ($0.50).

PRE-FLOP
sammy1260 calls $0.50, topnotch35 calls $0.50, footer41 calls $0.50, Swell Larry calls $0.50, Yippi folds, Jayhawk1 folds, SMOKEY0420 folds, xbruticusx checks.

FLOP [board cards AH,9S,KD ] Pot: $2.25
xbruticusx checks, sammy1260 checks, topnotch35 bets $0.50, footer41 calls $0.50, Swell Larry calls $0.50, xbruticusx calls $0.50, sammy1260 calls $0.50.

TURN [board cards AH,9S,KD,3H ] Pot $5.25
xbruticusx checks, sammy1260 checks, topnotch35 bets $1, footer41 folds, Swell Larry folds, xbruticusx folds, sammy1260 folds.

I put in Pot amounts to make this format a little easier to read.

Flop: I called this bet on the premise that I had 5 to 1 odds to turn or river my queen. At odds approximately 11 to 1 to turn my queen, I definitely could not call this bet at the 7.5 to 1 the pot was laying me. But like I said, I generally have been using the combined odds for the turn and the river.

Turn: I folded to this bet on the odds alone. I was probably behind here and drawing to my straight was my only set of outs. At roughly 11 to 1, I could not call this bet.

Now here's the rub: Had I followed the odds for only the turn on the flop, I would have been out of this hand and saved myself an extra SB. Is using the odds for the turn and river not pragmatic? Or maybe, should they be used in combination with implied odds to figure approximate situations on later streets?
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|~|ypermegachi
Old 12-26-2004, 06:50 AM #4 (permalink)  
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i never combine both turn and river for pot odds. i always just use the next card on pure pot odds, and make loose calls based on implied odds (roughly 1/2 to 3/4 of what i need normally to call).
 
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gabe
Old 12-26-2004, 03:14 PM #5 (permalink)  
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so if you have a PP and don't flop a set, the pot has to be 22 times the bet instead of 12 times the bet?
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steviebrutal
Old 12-26-2004, 03:55 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gabriel
so if you have a PP and don't flop a set, the pot has to be 22 times the bet instead of 12 times the bet?
essentially, but its actually 11 times the bet in the latter portion (you're 10.9:1 to turn or river the set). I think the flaw in considering the combined odds is that you don't take into account the later bets you would have to concede to. If you were pretty sure you could check behind on the turn - then it would be good to consider those odds.

For example, you could use the "raising for a free card" strat. 3 players on the flop (none of the blinds) - the first bets, second calls which puts 6.5 SB in the pot. Lets say youre drawing to an inside straight. The pot is laying you 13:1 so you could call; but by raising here youre giving yourself 6.5:1 pot odds (on 10.3:1 odds that youll turn the straight). Thats not very good to turn your straight, but youre actually getting good odds to turn OR river the straight (5.1:1). By raising here (using the said strat) you might be able to check behind on the turn basically making those odds work for you.

This is the only situation I can see the Turn+River odds being applicable anymore.
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Fnord
Old 12-26-2004, 09:18 PM #7 (permalink)  
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The way I figure it is that to call that bet you need to expect to win an over $5.5 pot if you hit. I've been routinely making that call on the flop.

Figure overcards are 6 outs, but weaker outs.
A gutshot is 4 outs, but you're drawing to a stronger hand (unless you're only adding a single card to the board, then you need to consider the possibility of a split pot.)
Is one really better than the other?

Of course, having other outs (even backdoor) makes these decisions easier.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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ChezJ
Old 12-27-2004, 12:41 AM #8 (permalink)  
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 stevie,

if you are going to use turn+river odds to decide whether to chase a draw, then you also have to use turn+river betting to calculate the implied pot odds.

in your example, the odds of catching your gutshot by the river are 5:1, so you need the pot to lay you 5:1 by the river. but the "1" in that 5:1 is really 1.5 (or more) because you will be paying at least one small bet and one big bet to get to the river. 5:1 = 7.5:1.5, so you are going to need 7.5 big bets in the pot by the time the river comes.

by my count, you have 8.5 small bets in the pot on the flop when it's your turn to act. you have 4 opponents. if they all pay to see the river, the pot may grow to approximately 8 big bets (of other people's money), so your draw is marginally profitable from this perspective.

however, you have no way to predict whether all 4 opponents will go to the river. someone will probably fold on the turn. you also don't know if anyone will suddenly wake up and raise the turn, making it 2.5 big bets (or more) to see the river. if either of these things occur, your pot odds go from ok to awful.

to keep things simple, i stick to one-card odds decisions. at 10.5:1, your gutshot is marginally worth chasing to the turn. there are 8.5 small bets in the pot and several other players in there to give you implied odds if you hit on the next card.

ChezJ
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