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Pot Odds 102: Exemplified.

  
 
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euphoricism
Old 05-05-2006, 11:35 PM     Post subject: Pot Odds 102: Exemplified. #1 (permalink)  
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This hand is a pretty good example of when it is correct, due to implied odds, to chase the gutshot.


Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9, Q.
UTG calls, 1 fold, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 8, 5, J (4 players)
SB bets, Hero calls, UTG raises, Button folds, SB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (5 BB) T (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG bets, SB folds, Hero raises, UTG calls.

River: (9 BB) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 11 BB

The converter rounds (poorly), so I'll detail it out here. The numbers in ( )'s are a running tally of the pot size.

Preflop...
SB Posts (.5 SB)
BB posts (1.5SB)
UTG calls (2.5 SB)
BTN calls (3.5 SB)

Flop... (3.5 small bets going in)
SB bets (4.5 SB)
I call (5.5 SB) -- I realize this is "not quite there" but there was another opponent in the pot, whom I expected to call because well, he sucked, and that would give me 6.5 SB)
UTG raises (7.5 SB) -- I didn't really expect that.
SB calls (8.5 SB)
I call (9.5 SB) --

Turn.... -- we're switchin to BIG BETS now...
check check
UTG bets (5.75 BB)
I raise (7.75 BB)
He calls (8.75 BB)

River ...
I bet (9.75 BB)
He calls (10.75 BB)


And so, as we can see, the pot does in fact reach almost exactly the expected size. I was then called a "moron fish".



So now we can discuss:
What if I hadn't hit the turn?
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elipsesjeff
Old 05-05-2006, 11:39 PM #2 (permalink)  
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Quote:
What if I hadn't hit the turn?
Fold. Your flop call is only valid because you have a highly probable chance of getting another guy to call.

Also, if SB checks the flop, I donk it out.


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Fnord
Old 05-05-2006, 11:53 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
Also, if SB checks the flop, I donk it out.
Given the passive read on UTG plus it being short handed, I really like the check/raise. I don't think the threat of this getting checked through is as high because quite often UTG has something big here.
 
elipsesjeff
Old 05-05-2006, 11:58 PM #4 (permalink)  
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I said bet the flop, not the turn. I check/raise the turn too when I hit.


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euphoricism
Old 05-07-2006, 05:19 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
Quote:
What if I hadn't hit the turn?
Fold ...
No, Our implied odds have not changed, the pot would still be 10.75 bets, and we still have a 10.5:1 draw. Its a a slightly +EV call.
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elipsesjeff
Old 05-07-2006, 05:35 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Thats an easy fold man. The pot wouldn't be 10.75 bets because 2 of those bets are our own on the river. The reason why the flop call is good because the size of the bets on the turn and river are double, which effectively gives us the implied odds.

You cant say its a 10.5:1 draw, when you are only going to effectively net 8.5.


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euphoricism
Old 05-07-2006, 07:14 PM #7 (permalink)  
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pot odds aren't about net, though. Otherwise we would figure our past betting into the future equation, in which case we'd almost never have odds to call anything. We'd figure "Well, I've already put 3.5 bets into this pot, and theres currently 10 in it" when we cant do that. The pot money ain't ours, right?

The pot going in to the turn is 4.75 big bets.

we check / call the turn, pot goes +2 bets (6.75)
we check/raise the river, pot goes +4 bets (10.75)

There is no difference in our implied odds. If we can get a river check/raise off when we hit, our implied odds make it a call.

How am I wrong?
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elipsesjeff
Old 05-07-2006, 07:23 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by euphoricism
pot odds aren't about net, though. Otherwise we would figure our past betting into the future equation, in which case we'd almost never have odds to call anything. We'd figure "Well, I've already put 3.5 bets into this pot, and theres currently 10 in it" when we cant do that. The pot money ain't ours, right?

The pot going in to the turn is 4.75 big bets.

we check / call the turn, pot goes +2 bets (6.75)
we check/raise the river, pot goes +4 bets (10.75)

There is no difference in our implied odds. If we can get a river check/raise off when we hit, our implied odds make it a call.

How am I wrong?
The pot is always in terms of net man. You are being confused in that as soon as your money goes into the pot, it is no longer part of your own money, which you understand.

However, before you put the money in the pot the money is still yours and you have to think of terms of net. Because, you are putting 3 BB into the pot to win on the turn and river if you hit, but you are only going to net 9 (6 in the pot plus the other 2 from him).


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euphoricism
Old 05-07-2006, 07:32 PM #9 (permalink)  
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I'm definitely not understanding that point. I get why the flop call is good, but using the same logic the turn call should be as well?
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euphoricism
Old 05-07-2006, 07:36 PM #10 (permalink)  
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On the turn (if i miss) I'm holding a 10.5:1 draw.

If I hit the river, and checkraise, the pot will be 10.75 bets.

Why is that not a call?
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euphoricism
Old 05-07-2006, 07:41 PM #11 (permalink)  
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the implied odds, as my retard ass understands it, is

"Expected size of pot" : "How much I have to put in"

If I expect the size of the pot to be 10.75 bets at showdown, and it costs me 1 bet to see if I hit, thats 10.75:1 implied, right?
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euphoricism
Old 05-07-2006, 07:43 PM #12 (permalink)  
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The only thing I can think of that I'm doing wrong is understanding the definition of implied odds..

in that its not how big the pot is, its how much I can take off of the other guy compared to what i have to put in.

In which case, I'm putting +1 bet in on the turn to call, and +2 bets in on the river, for a total of 3 bets. Compared to size of pot, would be 3:10.75. Which is obviously not correct.

Is that right? That atleast makes sense, I negated the price of the checkraise.
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euphoricism
Old 05-07-2006, 07:45 PM #13 (permalink)  
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I am an idiot. That is correct. I confusled myself.

{locked}
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pokerfanatic
Old 05-07-2006, 07:49 PM #14 (permalink)  
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I agree with Jeff we had this conversation on AIM...

Flop call is fine... we don't need to go into that... IF you miss the turn you figure you have to c/c there to draw out, those laying the pot at 6:1 to call you figure on avg you get 2 bets in on the river thus you are getting 8:1 to call it's an easy fold for me...

When you miss the turn you can't say that ohh I still have 10.5:1 to call based on flop implied odds, it needs recalculated on the turn...

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~
I am an idiot. That is correct. I confusled myself.

{locked}

Opps got in after you locked it
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euphoricism
Old 05-07-2006, 08:18 PM #15 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerfanatic
I agree with Jeff we had this conversation on AIM...

Flop call is fine... we don't need to go into that... IF you miss the turn you figure you have to c/c there to draw out, those laying the pot at 6:1 to call you figure on avg you get 2 bets in on the river thus you are getting 8:1 to call it's an easy fold for me...

When you miss the turn you can't say that ohh I still have 10.5:1 to call based on flop implied odds, it needs recalculated on the turn...

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~
I am an idiot. That is correct. I confusled myself.

{locked}

Opps got in after you locked it
ABUSE! ABUSE!
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