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Anosmic
Old 10-10-2006, 06:46 AM     Post subject: Post-flop problems #1 (permalink)  
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Okay, how bad is this one?
I thought the raise may mean he's on a draw. When I got check/raised again I go the message. Is it then stupid to actually call down?


Limit Hold'em CryptoLogic ($1/$2)
Converted by FTRConv
9-handed

StacksUTG: $38.25
UTG+1: $50
UTG+2: $81.50
MP1: $77.50
MP2: $52.75
Hero: $40
BTN: $23.25
SB: $37.25
BB: $81.75


Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with K K
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, Hero raises, BTN calls, SB folds, BB 3-bets, Hero 4-bets, BTN calls, BB calls,

Flop:(12.5SB) 3 4 J (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BTN calls, BB raises, Hero calls, BTN calls,

Turn:(12.25BB) 9 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BTN folds, BB raises, Hero calls,

River:(16.25BB) 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks,
Final Pot: 16.25 BB

Hand 2:
I see that I have odds to call here. What about the turn c/r? I'm not quite as good as I thought here, but if I'm >25% to win then building the pot is +EV?


Limit Hold'em CryptoLogic ($1/$2)
Converted by FTRConv
10-handed

StacksMP1: $13.25
MP2: $49.25
MP3: $94.63
CO: $7
BTN: $74
Hero: $20.37
BB: $19
UTG: $20
UTG+1: $58.75
UTG+2: $96.50


Pre-Flop: Hero is SB with 8 4
UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO calls, BTN calls, Hero calls, BB checks,

Flop:(7SB) Q 7 5 (8 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 bets, MP2 calls, CO calls, BTN calls, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG+1 folds,

Turn:(9.5BB) 5 (7 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG+2 bets, MP2 calls, CO calls, BTN folds, Hero raises, BB folds, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls, CO 3-bets and is all-in, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls,

River:(21.5BB) Q (5 players 1 all-ins)
Hero checks, UTG+2 bets, MP2 calls, Hero calls,
Final Pot: 24.5 BB

Hand 3:
Do you lay-down TPTK here? Or just call it down?

Limit Hold'em CryptoLogic ($1/$2)
Converted by FTRConv
9-handed

StacksBTN: $52
Hero: $37
BB: $40.63
UTG: $42.12
UTG+1: $81.75
UTG+2: $20
MP1: $92
MP2: $42
CO: $62


Pre-Flop: Hero is SB with Q A
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, CO folds, BTN folds, Hero raises, BB folds, UTG+1 calls,

Flop:(5SB) 8 Q 6 (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 calls,

Turn:(4.5BB) J (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 raises, Hero calls,

River:(8.5BB) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets, Hero calls,
Final Pot: 10.5 BB

Hand 4:
If you sense villain is weak can you justify this play? Is there any folding equity on the river?


Limit Hold'em CryptoLogic ($1/$2)
Converted by FTRConv
10-handed

StacksMP1: $35
MP2: $42.25
MP3: $92.13
CO: $9
BTN: $75.75
Hero: $52.62
BB: $39
UTG: $14.75
UTG+1: $47.75
UTG+2: $117.50


Pre-Flop: Hero is SB with A 3
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO calls, BTN raises, Hero calls, BB folds, CO calls,

Flop:(7SB) 8 4 7 (3 players)
Hero bets, CO calls, BTN calls,

Turn:(6.5BB) 5 (3 players)
Hero bets, CO calls, BTN folds,

River:(8.5BB) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets, CO calls,
Final Pot: 10.5 BB
Blah blah Op Blah blah

Faith in Jesus Christ is +EV. That is all.
 
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arkitekton
Old 10-10-2006, 07:08 AM #2 (permalink)  
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in hand 2 there's something weird going on with the hand converter. Says there's 9.5 BB in the pot. Ain't so.
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Anosmic
Old 10-10-2006, 09:26 AM #3 (permalink)  
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I'll fix it manually:

Limit Hold'em CryptoLogic ($1/$2)
Converted by FTRConv
10-handed

Pre-Flop: Hero is SB with 8 4
UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO calls, BTN calls, Hero calls, BB checks,

Flop:(7SB) Q 7 5 (7 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 bets, MP2 calls, CO calls, BTN calls, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG+1 folds,

Turn:(6.5BB) 5 (6 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG+2 bets, MP2 calls, CO calls, BTN folds, Hero raises, BB folds, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls, CO 3-bets and is all-in, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls,

River:(18.5BB) Q (4 players 1 all-ins)
Hero checks, UTG+2 bets, MP2 calls, Hero calls,
Final Pot: 21.5 BB
Blah blah Op Blah blah

Faith in Jesus Christ is +EV. That is all.
 
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NWNewell
Old 10-10-2006, 02:01 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Hand 1

{ Deleted because I'm an idiot! }


Hand 2

Preflop: 13:1 odds to call preflop. I call win any suited cards. Good.

Flop: You've got 11:1 odds to call with a dirty gutshot and back door flush draw ~4 outs. 10.5:1 with 11:1 pot odds. It is a profitable call. Good.

Turn: You've got ~10 outs with your weak flush draw and dirty gutshot, giving you a 20% chance to win. With a 20% chance to win, you need 5 total players (4 opponents calling). You've got that, so good raise. But when the CO 3-bets, you will only have 3 opponents calling if you cap. So, you're cap would actually cost you EV since the 4th opponent is already all in. Good 3-bet call. Plus, with him 3-betting the second spade, he could have a higher flush. Whether you played the turn like that for those reasons or not, it was played will I think.

River: You hit your flush, and only called????? Why? I can't believe UTG+2 was betting a spade flush since the flop. It is unlikely that MP2 was calling down with only a spade flush draw and didn't hit raise the river when he hit. The only person that might have hit the flush draw was CO since he 3-bet when the second spade fell (but he could have hit trips too). But the great thing is that CO is all in. So, if you raise, you can earn 2 more BB of of UTG+2 and MP2 in a side pot and actually win a total of 4BB and make a 0.25BB profit (minus the rake) even when CO has the higher flush!!!

Definitely raise the river!!! The rest of the hand was played well.

Hand 3:
Very tough for me. Basically, you're looking at 4:1 Pot odds to call down. Are you going to be ahead more than 20% of the time? Don't really know. Looks like someone either slowplayed trips or two pair, or hit two pair or a straight. Or would he raise a straight or flush draw.

And with the flush/straight card on the river, you're looking at about 9:1 Pot odds to call. Pretty decent size pot. But what how often will we win?

Both the Turn and River desicions seem kind of borderline to me. I'd like to se a little bigger pot (payoff) because I think we are behind a significant amount of the time. But I would probably end unsurely calling down....

Hand 4

I'm checking the river. The most of the time the only hands he is going to fold are hands that you're Ace high already as beat, and you can win the showdown without any extra cost. Most of the time, he is going to call the river with a better hand, or maybe even another Ace high (but his Ace high is going to beat yours). I don't think he is folding a better hand, or calling with a worse hand enough to make betting the river profitable.
My "Operation Come Back" Thread: Interupted.
 
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Anosmic
Old 10-10-2006, 02:16 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NWNewell
Hand 1
Building the pot against one opponent is not +EV with a little greater than >25%. It is only +EV if you are greater than 50% favorite.

When you talk about building the pot, you are talking about what you have to contribute from then on, versus what others will have to contribute from then on.
Hmm.
Hand one is an overpair, heads up... so I don't follow you.

Hand TWO is the flush+gutshot after the turn with 3 opponents which is what the building-the-pot question refers to.

As I see it: I made it 26% to win and 3 opponents who seemed to be ready to keep on piling money into the pot, so +EV.
What I'd failed to account for was that the Qs was not an out, so I was actually 25% to win and so therefore it's break-even at best.

One perhaps should factor in the possibility of a better flush draw out there (minor), 55 (very minor) and Q5 (once the BB folds, very minor).
Blah blah Op Blah blah

Faith in Jesus Christ is +EV. That is all.
 
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kyc12
Old 10-10-2006, 02:18 PM #6 (permalink)  

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Posts: 89
kyc12
Hand 1: Most likely, villian has AK/AQ/AJ clubs or JJ-AA when he raise the flop. When he c/r the river, I think it's most likely JJ/99, or an overpair badly played, because without a made hand you won't be betting. If the site does not show mucked hand I'd have to check to make sure I know what he holds.

I think the only logical hand here is JJ/AA, but with that he should be betting the river. So, to determine whether to bet or not, you have to get a read on him, maybe he raise with many things, or maybe he loves to slowplay whenever he has a monster.

Hand 2: When you call the flop, you're drawing to your 3 non-club gutshot outs much more than the backdoor flush. When the board pairs on the turn, you could be dead to a bigger FD and/or a boat. It is difficut to estimate, but raising is not for value here. Calling maybe slightly better than folding beacuse you still have your gutshot draw.

Hand 3: I play the same

Hand 4: If you're going to semi-bluff, c/r the flop. If CO calls, you know he got something and you can stop. If he folds, you can lead the turn and hope that BTN folds.
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kyc12
Old 10-10-2006, 02:20 PM #7 (permalink)  

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kyc12
Quote:
Originally Posted by Anosmic

One perhaps should factor in the possibility of a better flush draw out there (minor), 55 (very minor) and Q5 (once the BB folds, very minor).
I don't think you should count anything out when it's 8 handed to the flop and 7 handed to the turn!!!!
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NWNewell
Old 10-10-2006, 02:24 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Anosmic
Quote:
Originally Posted by NWNewell
Hand 1
Building the pot against one opponent is not +EV with a little greater than >25%. It is only +EV if you are greater than 50% favorite.

When you talk about building the pot, you are talking about what you have to contribute from then on, versus what others will have to contribute from then on.
Hmm.
Hand one is an overpair, heads up... so I don't follow you.

Hand TWO is the flush+gutshot after the turn with 3 opponents which is what the building-the-pot question refers to.

As I see it: I made it 26% to win and 3 opponents who seemed to be ready to keep on piling money into the pot, so +EV.
What I'd failed to account for was that the Qs was not an out, so I was actually 25% to win and so therefore it's break-even at best.

One perhaps should factor in the possibility of a better flush draw out there (minor), 55 (very minor) and Q5 (once the BB folds, very minor).
Sorry... I read your comment for hand two about building the pot.. but thought you were refering to hand 1.

Sorry for the confusion... my bad!
My "Operation Come Back" Thread: Interupted.
 
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bigspenda73
Old 10-10-2006, 08:38 PM #9 (permalink)  
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bigspenda73 will become famous soon enoughbigspenda73 will become famous soon enough
 I really do not like the way you played hand 2. The turn raise is just really poor IMO as a flopped set has you drawing dead. If you are going to raise the turn w/ a flush draw then you need to be willing to raise the river. But, why raise this board w/ a poor flush draw?

Hand 3: Im folding to the turn raise

Hand 4: Im not betting this river b/c you beat nothing but a busted flush draw
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Anosmic
Old 10-11-2006, 06:30 AM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigspenda73
I really do not like the way you played hand 2. The turn raise is just really poor IMO as a flopped set has you drawing dead. If you are going to raise the turn w/ a flush draw then you need to be willing to raise the river. But, why raise this board w/ a poor flush draw?
Because it's a flush+gutshot which is 26% (normally) after the turn. 26% with four opponents seems to me that it's +EV to get as big a pot as possible. Even when one drops out it's still paying 25% for a 26% shot (forgetting the existing pot) and seems +EV.

There are some dangers. I admit I forgot that the Qs wasn't an out and that takes my outs down. The other question is: am I drawing dead against a boat/quads.
I reasoned that none of those hands is likely except 77. Does the hand where one of my opponents holds 77 destory my edge? That's where I have difficulty working it out.

Let's make it explicit:
UTG+2 has QdTd
MP2 has As6s
CO has Qh7c (!!)
BTN and BB are unknown let's take it that we KNOW they will fold.

So I made a mistake: if I knew my opponents hole cards I'd have played differently. (Well actually, if I'd calculated my odds better....).

But let's put BB on Kc7d (so he caught middle pair with a reasonable kicker). I'm now 26.32% to win.
Do I call and hope BB calls (so paying 20% of a smaller pot (but my margin is 6%)) or raise so that even with the fold I'm paying 25% of a larger pot (my margin being only 1% now).

As I understand it the narrower my margin the greater the swings, but the profit is only determined by the odds and the pot size.


Quote:
Originally Posted by bigspenda73
Hand 3: Im folding to the turn raise

Hand 4: Im not betting this river b/c you beat nothing but a busted flush draw
I'm not sure about folding 3. There will be a number of times when you're folding a winning hand at these limits; I just don't know how often it is and whether the saved 2 bets makes it worthwhile.

I agree with you on four.
Blah blah Op Blah blah

Faith in Jesus Christ is +EV. That is all.
 
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