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thenonsequitur
Old 05-20-2006, 12:00 AM     Post subject: Poor ladies #1 (permalink)  
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UTG+1 is a fish, CO is a shark.

Is this just a bad beat, or did I do something wrong?

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Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $3/$6
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with Q Q
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises, CO 3-bets, 2 folds, Hero caps, UTG+1 calls, CO calls.

Flop: J 4 T (9.33SB, 3 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, CO calls.

Turn: J (6.17BB, 3 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, CO calls.

River: K (9.17BB, 3 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 folds, CO raises, Hero folds.
Uncalled bets: 1BB returned to CO.

Results:
Final pot: 11.17BB
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midas06
Old 05-20-2006, 02:15 AM #2 (permalink)  
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I'd check/call the river against 2 opponents there
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Xanadu
Old 05-20-2006, 02:02 PM #3 (permalink)  
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How can you fold on the river? Read on the opponent? Well, if he is good, don't you think he has a read on you? If this is an observant opponent, you just got bluffed over 20% of the time, and gave him more reason to take shots in the future. How can you possibly know you are beat over 92% of the time here?

Edit: Looking back at this, I guess you might be beat over 92% here because CO 3-bet preflop. If you have a good idea of his 3-betting standards. But if you are beat 92% of the time, you know it before he raises, so how can you bet the river? Basically, if you are going to fold to a raise, you shouldn't bet in this spot, and probably shouldn't bet at all, especially into 2 opponents who both raised preflop with 3 broadways (and one paired) on the board. I think the line here is either check/call or check/fold depending on reads. Who is going to call that you beat anyway? AT?
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elipsesjeff
Old 05-21-2006, 04:46 AM #4 (permalink)  
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I agree, a check/call is a good line here.


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thenonsequitur
Old 05-21-2006, 08:22 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Yeah, I figured I messed up this river (which is the main reason I posted this hand), but wasn't sure what the best alternative was.

Check/call and check/fold both seem like reasonable choices (and in retrospect it seems like bet/call even has some merit, leaving only bet/fold as obviously a mistake, so of course that's the line I took...).

Thinking about now, I agree that check/call is probably the best line.
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euphoricism
Old 05-21-2006, 09:02 AM #6 (permalink)  
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I'd prefer a check/call.
But I dont mind your bet/fold.

He's not raising anything you can beat.
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koolmoe
Old 05-21-2006, 11:46 AM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by euphoricism
I'd prefer a check/call.
But I dont mind your bet/fold.

He's not raising anything you can beat.
So use your bet to induce a bluff. He's not calling much that you beat.

<edit> IMO, bet/fold on the river just sucks when you'd like to see a showdown.
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euphoricism
Old 05-21-2006, 05:54 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Meh didnt see this was against two opponents either.

Youre holding QQ on a JJTKx board. Why do you need to see showdown? Youve got second pair, coordinated flop, and a paired board, three handed. While I'm not going to be check/folding this river, I really don't want to put more than one bet in, and I highly highly highly doubt I'm ahead.

Either line will work, but for obvious reasons one is better than the other.
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koolmoe
Old 05-21-2006, 10:51 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by euphoricism
Youre holding QQ on a JJTKx board. Why do you need to see showdown?
Because there are over 9 BB in the pot when the river card hits. I want a chance to win the pot, and not many hands that I beat are going to call the river, but someone might take a stab at the pot with a middle pair or busted Axs.

Bet/fold has merit only if you know that your opponents never bluff raise, as you have to call if you think there is a 8% chance that he might bluff raise the river. Even if you know this is true, I still think you have a better chance of winning a bet by inducing a bluff as opposed to having a value bet called.
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koolmoe
Old 05-21-2006, 10:52 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Also, I would add that no better hand is folding this river, so that further reduces your reasons for leading the river.
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