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euphoricism
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08-09-2006, 10:13 PM
Post subject: Pocket Pairs with overcards.
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
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A hypothetical that I should know the answer to, but don't
Say you raise 22-KK in EP, get X number of callers flop is Axx, you lead out. someone raises. You know you have to hit your 2 outter to win, what odds do you need to see a turn card?
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Nehmer
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Decatur, IL
Posts: 666
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Well, with 2 outs, you have approximately 2X2 = 4% chance to hit your outs. Not counting implied odds, you need about 100/4 = 20:1 pot odds for the call to be right. Obviously you don't need nearly that good though once you factor in implied odds. You could possibly be good with as low as 12:1 depending on your opponents.
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
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Actually 4% is more like 24-1. You will win 1 out of every 25 times, or 24-1.
However, I would be likely to call anything around 15-1 here b/c of implied odds and the fact that my hand could still be good. Most players could lead at a draw, then check the turn. However, in the example you said you knew you had to hit your 2 outer. If you know this, I would almost autofold, as I cannot believe the pot could be large enough to be worthy of a call. If you raised PF and even had 5 callers (12 SB) and then someone led at the flop and there were 4 cold callers (17SB) the pot would still not be large enough to justify catching just a two outer. Implied odds on the other hand make up for the missing odds. You are likely to get at least 2BB(4SB) out of the one opponent if not many more. I would usually take a turn card here, a lot of the times you make get a free look at the river.
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Nehmer
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Decatur, IL
Posts: 666
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigspenda73
Actually 4% is more like 24-1. You will win 1 out of every 25 times, or 24-1.
However, I would be likely to call anything around 15-1 here b/c of implied odds and the fact that my hand could still be good. Most players could lead at a draw, then check the turn. However, in the example you said you knew you had to hit your 2 outer. If you know this, I would almost autofold, as I cannot believe the pot could be large enough to be worthy of a call. If you raised PF and even had 5 callers (12 SB) and then someone led at the flop and there were 4 cold callers (17SB) the pot would still not be large enough to justify catching just a two outer. Implied odds on the other hand make up for the missing odds. You are likely to get at least 2BB(4SB) out of the one opponent if not many more. I would usually take a turn card here, a lot of the times you make get a free look at the river. |
Yeah, I'm an idiot...I really do know how to divide 100 by 4 seriously  Yeah, with that small difference, I'd probably change my 12:1 to about 15:1 too with implied odds.
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
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So I've been using 10:1... and uh, thats bad.
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
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Quote:
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So I've been using 10:1... and uh, thats bad.
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Eupho, 10-1 is not as bad as you think situationally.
Say you pick up KK in MP, there was a limper in front, you raise, and the BB calls as does the limper.
Now, the flop comes Axx
Here is the $64,000 question. Say you knew for a fact that UTG would limp with any ace and call a raise back to him. If he leads at the flop then you know you're toast.
However, say the same situation comes but you have JJ and the flop is Qxx.
I would disregard needing 24-1 real odds or something like 16-1 implied odds here b/c the fact of the matter is you're probably still good. Now the question is, do you raise or call down? You're not laying the correct odds to call, so I raise here.
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