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PLO8 Sng: AA on a Q99 flop

  
 
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TLR
Old 12-27-2007, 12:42 PM     Post subject: PLO8 Sng: AA on a Q99 flop #1 (permalink)  
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 PokerStars Game #14128876409: Tournament #71722066, $6.00+$0.50 Omaha Hi/Lo Pot Limit - Level II (15/30) - 2007/12/27 - 08:38:47 (ET)
Table '71722066 1' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: jenifer1981 (1465 in chips)
Seat 3: colecracker (1655 in chips)
Seat 5: lily (1790 in chips)
Seat 6: dwight55106 (1490 in chips)
Seat 7: Forty2u (1450 in chips)
Seat 8: D_Con113 (1360 in chips)
Seat 9: Eastside28 (4290 in chips)
D_Con113: posts small blind 15
Eastside28: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Forty2u [4d Ah 8h As]
jenifer1981: raises 75 to 105
colecracker: folds
lily: folds
dwight55106: calls 105
Forty2u: raises 360 to 465
D_Con113: calls 450
Eastside28: folds
jenifer1981: calls 360
dwight55106: calls 360
*** FLOP *** [9h Qc 9c]
D_Con113: checks
jenifer1981: checks
dwight55106: checks
Forty2u: ?

What is your move here ? check, pot, 1/2 pot ?
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swiggidy
Old 12-28-2007, 04:43 AM #2 (permalink)  
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 Seems like with 3 other players it's awfully easy for someone to have a 9. With the pot as big as it is 1/2 pot doesn't seem like an option.

I have no idea what the skill level is, but I can't imagine with 3 people calling they all understand what a strong hand is, thus know it doesn't include a 9. I check, fold to any big bet.
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TLR
Old 12-28-2007, 09:06 AM #3 (permalink)  
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 DO you think someone with a 9 will check this flop given possible straight and flush draws ?


 
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swiggidy
Old 12-28-2007, 04:46 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 If they were thinking Omaha players then no. Considering that $6 HE players are bad, and micro-stakes omaha players play like decent micro-stakes HE players, I would expect someone with a 9 to go for a c/r.

When ever I check a paired flop in cash someone insta PSBs the turn. If it gets back to you again (on a non-club/8/K turn) I would fire then. This is an obvious line, but if they're playing their cards (which I would guess) I would expect to win 90% (because they fold), loose 10% to Q9/QQ. Sometimes you'll get looked up by Qxxx because they think you might be bluffing air.
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TLR
Old 12-29-2007, 06:49 AM #5 (permalink)  
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 I fired the flop, mainly because the pot was about 1800 and I had 1000 behind, got called by TTXX


 
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swiggidy
Old 12-29-2007, 01:52 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 lol

Thinking about this again. There are only 2 9s left in the deck. I'm a little hungover but I think that's 4% that one shows up in 4 random cards, which means you only see a 9 12% of the time. So pushing to eliminate draws seems like the easy choice.
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TLR
Old 12-29-2007, 02:39 PM #7 (permalink)  
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 Your math is a bit off, there are 8 known cards, so 2/44 for every given 9.
The chance of 1 player not having a 9
42/44*41/43*40/42*39/41= 82.5%
The chance of 3 players, all of them not having a 9 is
0.825*0.825*0.825=56%


 
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swiggidy
Old 12-29-2007, 03:08 PM #8 (permalink)  
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 that seems a lot better. Still the maths say poooooooooosh
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