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PLO8 Newb: Call all-in with nut low draw?

  
 
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Zangief
Old 10-28-2005, 03:37 AM     Post subject: PLO8 Newb: Call all-in with nut low draw? #1 (permalink)  
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I'm a PLO8 newb, so be nice.

No hand history, but here is my description:

Loose, low stakes PLO8. Not many PFRs, usually 80% of players to the flop.

There is a PFR from EP, he probably has AA or KK. From previous play, he isn't necessarily as strong as AA2x or AA3x.

A couple of people call behind.

I have 2234.

I figure since I have 22, it's less likely that others will have a 2. If the flop comes with an A, I will have the nut low draw when it's less likely anyone else will.

The flop:
A8K

There is a pot bet, then a pot raise in front of me. If I reraise pot, it would put me all-in and I cover everyone else.

I put the other 2 players on AA and KK or something similar.

By the river, the low draw will complete with any 2-7, of which there are 20 unseen, with 45 total unseen cards. So my hand completes:

1 - (1 - 20/45) * (1 - 20/44) = about 75% of the time.

So if I am right about my reads, I'll win 1/2 pot (the low) 75% of the time.

EV = 0.75 * 1/2 * 3 * x + 0.25 * -x
EV = 0.75 * 1.5 * x - 0.25 * x
EV = 1.125 * x - 0.25 * x
EV = +0.875 * x

where x is my stack size.

So this would seem to be profitable to me, as long as no one splits the low with me when it hits.

I push. Good play or bad play?
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lamaros
Old 10-28-2005, 05:48 AM #2 (permalink)  
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lamaros
Against decent players this would be bad. They might also have a low draw and a high hand. Against crappy players I might call, but most likely wouldn't.
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ihategnomes
Old 10-28-2005, 05:53 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Scooping is your friend.
Field mice are fast, but owls can see in the dark.
<Bbickes> i still wanna know if the thing in your avatar is a real chick or not
<Bbickes> or am i e-crushing a dude
 
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aislephive
Old 10-29-2005, 09:36 PM #4 (permalink)  
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I don't exactly like this play, remember, if you're trying to win the Low pot then you don't want to drive anybody out. Just call and hope everybody calls behind you. Anytime you're drawing to the nuts in a multi way pot you want to keep everybody in, especially with so many outs.
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LeFou
Old 10-29-2005, 10:13 PM #5 (permalink)  
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i go for the overcall here. in fact, the few times i've played this game it seems like i'm always going for overcalls, with a lock or near-lock on one end and even a slim chance at scooping (if your opps have weaker then ace/kind sets, you've got a slim chance to scoop.
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jmontis
Old 10-30-2005, 06:11 AM #6 (permalink)  
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from what I've, you want to always play for both halves of the pot, because when you get quartered it's a mother fucker
take your ego out of the equation and judge the situation dispassionately
 
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Demiparadigm
Old 10-30-2005, 10:03 AM #7 (permalink)  
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In this hand, if you hit your low it is unlikely you will get quartered, unfortunately, it is also unlikely you will scoop.
I think a call is best here since there is a large chance you will get half the pot. you are better off all in 3 ways than all in HU.
second to a call is a fold, since you don't have a made hand, and you are drawing to only half.
To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.
 
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aislephive
Old 10-30-2005, 04:56 PM #8 (permalink)  
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aislephive
Quote:
Originally Posted by jmontis
from what I've, you want to always play for both halves of the pot, because when you get quartered it's a mother fucker
If you get a hand like A23J or something similar then I'll always play it for a flop with at least two or three other players in the pot. If a couple players hit their set or flop a monster and fireworks go off, you can make a lot of money scooping. If you don't get two low cards on the flop then you're pretty much done with the hand.
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jmontis
Old 10-30-2005, 08:08 PM #9 (permalink)  
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with 2234 in the hole and an A8K flop, that means he needs 2 runners for the "scoop", and 1 more low card to take half

in a multiway pot this is a good opportunity, but heads up I'd probably fold.

I have no idea what the odds are on that one
take your ego out of the equation and judge the situation dispassionately
 
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aislephive
Old 11-05-2005, 12:45 AM #10 (permalink)  
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aislephive
Quote:
Originally Posted by jmontis
with 2234 in the hole and an A8K flop, that means he needs 2 runners for the "scoop", and 1 more low card to take half

in a multiway pot this is a good opportunity, but heads up I'd probably fold.

I have no idea what the odds are on that one
My bad, I don't even know I mentioned the word scoop in this spot. Anyways, to the OP, with the Ace showing there's less of a chance you'll get quartered because it's less common for somebody to be playing 23xx than A2xx and so forth. The chance still exists though, but at this point it's probably +EV to stay in with the nut low draw. If I had little money invested in the pot I'd just get away from the hand with almost no shot at the high half.
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