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PLO: Ughfuh.

  
 
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lamaros
Old 11-30-2005, 08:32 AM     Post subject: PLO: Ughfuh. #1 (permalink)  
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Posts: 346
lamaros
I just don't know what to do. My head says "he has the ace high flush. fold". But my head also says "shit! what if he has kings or a lower flush? folding would be a huge error".

Ugh.

PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha High, $0.25 BB (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Hero ($38.20)
BB ($39.50)
UTG ($55.85)
UTG+1 ($27.95)
MP1 ($42.50)
MP2 ($7)
CO ($193.40)
Button ($13.50)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, 6, A, T. MP2 posts a blind of $0.25.
2 folds, MP1 calls $0.25, MP2 (poster) checks, 2 folds, Hero completes, BB raises to $1.25, MP1 calls $1, MP2 folds, Hero raises to $5.35, BB calls $4, MP1 folds.

Flop: ($12.10) 2, 7, K (2 players)
Hero bets $11.4, BB raises to $27, Hero ??

I ran it down on the timer and clicked AI just before it folded me. I felt horrible right after that.
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TLR
Old 11-30-2005, 03:59 PM #2 (permalink)  
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TLR is an unknown quantity at this point
 You have the 4th flush, and A,Q,J beats you
Assuming he has a flush, there are 8 spades out there
7 A high combinations
6 Q high
5 J high
4 9 high
3 8 high
2 5 high
1 4 high
so 18 out of the 28 flush comibinations beat you.
Unless you have a read that he is very very loose it is a clear fold.


 
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lamaros
Old 12-01-2005, 02:43 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Posts: 346
lamaros
Wtf?

All it needs is for him to think I don't have two spades. Or to think he can bluff me with the As.

There are 5 spades, and 7 cards, accounted for, so he needs to have 2 of the remaining 8 spades with 45 cards left. I cbf working the numbers, but I doubt it comes out that clear.

The only time I should fold it is when I have a clear read, which I prety much did this time, that's why it's an error.

In no case is it a clear fold.
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KoRnholio
Old 12-01-2005, 03:44 AM #4 (permalink)  
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 He raised hard preflop (probably indicating aces, often with the As as well). He *could* have top set, but why would he push so hard and destory his odds? It may be a bluff with As, but it could also be something like KK with QsJs.. I'd fold it.
Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
 
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azureXsmurF
Old 12-01-2005, 04:26 AM #5 (permalink)  
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I would fold it... as tempting as it is to play. Too many ways to beat you, and I think if he was on a draw or didn't have any spades he would've at most called to see how you reacted on the turn (unless he's superloose)
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lamaros
Old 12-01-2005, 04:52 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Posts: 346
lamaros
Quote:
Originally Posted by KoRnholio
He raised hard preflop (probably indicating aces, often with the As as well). He *could* have top set, but why would he push so hard and destory his odds? It may be a bluff with As, but it could also be something like KK with QsJs.. I'd fold it.
Aye. As I have the other two aces then if he has AA then he has the As. Which means he either has the nut flush or the nuf flush bluff. If he doesn't have AA then I can only put him on KKxx. Which means he might have top set, or 2nd nut flush. If he doesn't have KKxx he might have a high wrap with two spades.

Most likely IMHO (in order of most liekly) would be Axs with the nut flush, KK with the top set and believing me to not have two spades, or As flush bluff. If I gave proper respect to those odds I think I'd have to fold it, but it's not necessarily a clear thing.
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