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PLO hand, turn play

  
 
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KoRnholio
Old 02-01-2007, 12:30 AM     Post subject: PLO hand, turn play #1 (permalink)  
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 Cryptologic 0.50/1.00 PL Omaha (10 handed) link

UTG+2 ($153.75)
MP1 ($144.15)
MP2 ($406.13)
Hero ($98.50)
CO ($118.25)
Button ($197.75)
SB ($41.42)
BB ($68.75)
UTG ($160.75)
UTG+1 ($91.87)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A, 6, 9, 9
1 folds, UTG+1 calls, 3 folds, Hero calls, 3 folds, BB checks.

Flop: (7.00 SB) 4, 9, 3 (3 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero $3.50, BB folds, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (10.50 BB) 7 (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $10.50, UTG+1 raises to $42.00, Hero...?

Read on villain: fairly with it, very possibly has the nut straight here. But I have also been very active lately. Anyone like a push here with the top set and flush draw on the turn? I've been mulling over it for a while.

If I push and he has the nut straight I'm not losing all that much since I am ~40% to win. But on the other hand if he has a set/combo draw (unlikely, but possible, IMO) I am in great shape and can't get bluffed out on the river.

If I just call and I make my hand on the river, there is no guarantee that he will pay off any size bet if he has the straight or lower set (there's still ~$45 left behind, and a $90 pot).

Random thoughts are welcome.
Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
 
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Muley05
Old 02-01-2007, 08:05 PM #2 (permalink)  

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I'm no Omaha expert, so take this with that in mind.

To me, I think the guy is holding 5-6 and maybe 5h-6h for the nut straight and a SF draw.

If I am not mistaken, 5-6 is the only hand you are behind after the turn.

I would definitely call the raise, and might push over the top, depending on whether you want to hope for a heart or the board to pair on the river.

Hope I helped.
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Miffed22001
Old 02-01-2007, 09:29 PM #3 (permalink)  
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 i think its a boarderline spot to gambool, high variance but probably ok.
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KoRnholio
Old 02-02-2007, 02:28 AM #4 (permalink)  
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 Results were: I called and the river bricked, he pushed. As soon as he pushed I realized that this villain is perfectly capable of bluffing in this spot and kicked myself for not putting it all in on the turn. Had he been a standard donk at these limits I like a call better since I can put them about 90%+ on the straight.
Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
 
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Miffed22001
Old 02-02-2007, 06:43 AM #5 (permalink)  
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 how about if you only half pot the turn?
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ihategnomes
Old 02-02-2007, 08:55 AM #6 (permalink)  
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How about not betting that turn at all?
Field mice are fast, but owls can see in the dark.
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elipsesjeff
Old 02-02-2007, 09:35 AM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ihategnomes
How about not betting that turn at all?
56 that likely to be scared of it? or are we not worried about any free cards....


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KoRnholio
Old 02-02-2007, 05:15 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Miffed22001
how about if you only half pot the turn?
In retrospect, that might be a good idea. Although it could just be me being results orientated.

Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
Quote:
Originally Posted by ihategnomes
How about not betting that turn at all?
56 that likely to be scared of it? or are we not worried about any free cards....
I wasn't all that afraid of 56 until I got check raised the maximum and thought "oops". I think a bet on the turn is mandatory since there are now many possible straight draws out there. Any offsuit A, 2, 5, 6, 8, 10 or J could make a new straight using cards other than exactly 5 and 6. A 5 or 6 are especially bad since almost any 6xxx or 5xxx hand that is still in will surely have a straight.
Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
 
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Miffed22001
Old 02-02-2007, 06:21 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ihategnomes
How about not betting that turn at all?
how scared is the straight going to be when the board pairs/flushes etc I cant see the straight calling much if we catch on the river.

I think we need to build but know that we are going to get raised anyhow and need t control the size that opp can raise to eg. potting it got it out of control quick.
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dsaxton
Old 02-04-2007, 09:38 AM #10 (permalink)  
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You have about 35% equity assuming he has a made straight with a flush draw, so clearly you have to at least call. I don't, however, see any reason to reraise, since this results in either a fold or a call from the nuts. In my opinion it's just a question of whether or not you're willing to call his expected push on the river, which depends purely on how this guy plays. That is to say, I have no answer.

And I think checking behind on the turn would be borderline silly. You want to charge two pair, smaller sets and flush draws to draw dead.
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zenbitz
Old 02-05-2007, 01:10 AM #11 (permalink)  
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Why would he want to charge flush draws, he has AXh? He wants to trap them...
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KoRnholio
Old 02-05-2007, 01:24 AM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zenbitz
Why would he want to charge flush draws, he has AXh? He wants to trap them...
Because even if the villain does have a flush draw now (which isn't all that likely), he probably won't stack off after I raise him on the river. This is true even if he has the Q or K-high flush since in Omaha the nuts are often out there when there is heavy betting.

By betting the turn the pot grows and gives him less chance to get away from losing a lot of money with a 2nd best hand on the river (be it a boat or a flush).

I'm always betting the turn here with the 2nd nuts/only one straight combination to worry about/redraws to two nut hands. If I had the same hand but the board was 10h 9c 3d 8h instead, then there would be 3 very likely straights possible (QJ, 7J and 67) and my set wouldn't be the highest, making a check behind or betting a small amount a better choice.
Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
 
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dsaxton
Old 02-05-2007, 07:17 AM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zenbitz
Why would he want to charge flush draws, he has AXh? He wants to trap them...
The reasoning behind betting the turn with the nut flush draw when your opponent has a smaller flush draw is extremely simple. You give him the opportunity to put more money in the pot drawing to a hand that might not complete on the river, in which case you miss any potential value. If his draw hits, then your opponent is now in a position to lose even more money if you bet the turn because of the increased pot size. He will now feel psychologically committed to calling a much larger bet. So, checking to 'set a trap' seems unequivocally to be the inferior play, since it essentially never wins more money than betting does. The only exception might be if your opponent never draws to non-nut hands, which is to say he'll fold to any reasonable bet. However, even in this case, he likely will not lose much money on the river with a non-nut flush.
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Fnord
Old 02-05-2007, 05:41 PM #14 (permalink)  
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/agree

Checking this turn is absurd. Top set with a nut flush draw is a very strong hand.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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ihategnomes
Old 02-06-2007, 07:56 AM #15 (permalink)  
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We have an extremely strong hand. If we are raised, then we are a dog. Why not check the turn and let this donk bet at the river. Since villian can easily be bluffing in this situation?
Field mice are fast, but owls can see in the dark.
<Bbickes> i still wanna know if the thing in your avatar is a real chick or not
<Bbickes> or am i e-crushing a dude
 
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