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KoRnholio
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11-30-2005, 11:19 PM
Post subject: PLO hand
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 2,165
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Ultimate Bet Pot-Limit Omaha High, $.50 BB (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx
Button ($45.45)
SB ($63.50)
BB ($36.45)
UTG ($57.35)
UTG+1 ($76.70)
Hero ($46.85)
MP2 ($22.25)
MP3 ($26.30)
CO ($72.55)
Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 8 , 8 , A , 7.
2 folds, Hero calls $0.50, MP2 calls $0.50, MP3 calls $0.50, CO calls $0.50, Button calls $0.50, SB completes, BB checks.
Flop: ($3.50) K, K, 8 (7 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $3.5, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB raises to $14, BB folds, Hero...
Either I am quite a bit ahead (of say AK) or way behind (drawing to one out) here. What to do?
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Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
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lamaros
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Flush
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 346
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I push against most plyers.
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KoRnholio
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 2,165
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I really wanted to push, but I thought it just looked too much like K8 trying to protect it's full house from a hand like KAQx that could outdraw it. Of course the same thing could be said for him holding KAxx..
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Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
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lamaros
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Flush
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 346
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by KoRnholio
I really wanted to push, but I thought it just looked too much like K8 trying to protect it's full house from a hand like KAQx that could outdraw it. Of course the same thing could be said for him holding KAxx..
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A lot of guys overplay their sets. I folded a set today when there was a pot raise and two callers before me. I hit my boat on the turn and felt like I got out safe from being stacked. But two showed down and they both had two pair...
So without a read a push it.
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dalecooper
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 3,107
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If he has a king and the case 8, you're drawing dead. If he's got a king and three other cards (obviously much more likely), you have a 60/40 edge. Tough decision.
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KoRnholio
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 2,165
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It was on UB, so the players are relatively tight. His check-massive reraise made it look like he wanted to take it down right there. Mentally I gave it about a 50% chance that he had K8, 50% that he had KAQx or something similar.
Statistically it's much more likely he just has trips/high cards, and that's probably the same kind of hand he put me on. I just felt behind though, didn't think he'd put in such a huge raise without K8 I guess. I ended up folding it.
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Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
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dsaxton
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Arlington, VA
Posts: 2,667
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You folded? How often would you be looking at K-8 when faced with this play from a typical player? It's statistically much easier for this player to have trips, and most players wouldn't even play K-8 like this very frequently when they do have it. I think most players at this level would usually opt to either slow-play (though this isn't necessarily the right play) or check-raise a smaller amount. This seems like an easy reraise.
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KoRnholio
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 2,165
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by dsaxton
You folded? How often would you be looking at K-8 when faced with this play from a typical player? It's statistically much easier for this player to have trips, and most players wouldn't even play K-8 like this very frequently when they do have it. I think most players at this level would usually opt to either slow-play (though this isn't necessarily the right play) or check-raise a smaller amount. This seems like an easy reraise.
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I did fold. Since I was either drawing dead or only slightly ahead (60% or so to win if he had K+high cards) I didn't see much EV in pushing my underfull.
I just worked out the math, and even if he only has K8 20% of the time and KAQ9 80% of the time, it's -EV 
From my experience, most people with trips drawing to a boat don't usually push that hard. Sometimes they will, but more often than not it's to protect their low boat from being drawn out on my the other trips.
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Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
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