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PLO$50: Ah Ad Jh 9c - draw on paired board?

  
 
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JeffreyGB
Old 09-11-2009, 03:04 PM     Post subject: PLO$50: Ah Ad Jh 9c - draw on paired board? #1 (permalink)  
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No reads on villain - he's new to the table. With 14 nut outs, it's got to be right to feel happy getting it in with AdAhJh on any KhQhx board that isn't paired. What about here, where it is paired? Worth it to call the flop? I expect to never be called by worse if I shove.

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UTG ($49.05)
MP ($50)
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Preflop: Hero is CO with J, 9, A, A
UTG calls $0.50, 1 fold, Hero bets $2.25, 3 folds, UTG calls $1.75

Flop: ($5.25) Q, K, K (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $3, UTG raises to $14.25, Hero calls $11.25

Turn: ($33.75) 3 (2 players)
UTG bets $32.55 (All-In), Hero ??
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Alexos
Old 09-11-2009, 05:01 PM #2 (permalink)  
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I think you have just about 33% equity vs his range on the flop. Range being QQ** and K***. Turn is an easy fold. I'd fold flop as well.

Curious what others think as I'm just learning too..
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Alexos
Old 09-11-2009, 05:06 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Oh and I don't mind checking flop at least half the time, its not like he's calling cbets with much worse here except some Qx.
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TLR
Old 09-11-2009, 05:27 PM #4 (permalink)  
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I would fold on the flop to his reraise, it is probably Kx but even if you hit your flush he may have filled up


 
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griffey24
Old 09-11-2009, 06:25 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alexos
Oh and I don't mind checking flop at least half the time, its not like he's calling cbets with much worse here except some Qx.
I'd prob check back the majority of time. He's rarely call worse, we can't handle a c/r, and we don't mind seeing a lot of the perceived 'scare cards'.
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drmcboy
Old 09-11-2009, 06:26 PM #6 (permalink)  
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check behind, fold flop as played. You want to play a big pot here with 3 turns and it might actually happen when you hit them so take the free ones.
You need a read he can show up with a worse draw (that is to say, he's terrible) before you can bet or raise here. It's a bad spot because if you do improve and happen to be ahead he'll know right away and only continue if he's priced in.
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bigspenda73
Old 09-12-2009, 12:46 AM #7 (permalink)  
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check flop don't call flop

I think checking the flop isn't even debatable really
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