Originally Posted by arkitekton

Always a knotty problem...

You must call--or find another table. If the button finds you that easy to push around, you'll have problems from here on in. Calling the 3 bet then obliges you to play on when an Ace flops (otherwise you're looking for a 9 and not much else). What do you put villain on in these situations?

A typical, if fairly tight range, is something like

AA-77, AK, AQ, AJs, KQs.

Feel free to disagree, but I've tended to run into this range of hands. That means that on the type of flop (uncoordinated, no other face cards) you gave you're ahead in the neighborhood of two-thirds of the time.

67 or so% is almost enough to check-raise or bet out on, even though by doing so you're giving villain odds: with a better hand he's likely to raise or keep raising. Obviously, then, it's too good a hand and flop for you to fold. Check calling is what I prefer here, mainly because in addition to giving odds by betting out or check-raising, I don't want him folding early with a smaller pocket pair that didn't flop a set and is unlikely to improve.

It's critical to put an opponent on a hand here--it's one thing if he's likely to 3 bet only with AA-QQ and AK, another if he'll 3 bet with the range I mentioned, and another entirely if he'll 3 bet with any Ace or any pair.

You might look at it this way (which assumes no one improves after the flop, and discounts the effect of the rake): Once villain 3 bets, there are 6.25 small bets in the pot. If he has a pair of Aces with a good kicker he'll bet to and on the river, so you'll need to put in 6 small bets against 11.25 to get to the showdown. If he has less than Aces, let's assume he'll bet the flop and turn and check the river if you don't bet. You'll win 9.25 small bets in these cases. In other words, roughly, you're putting in 6 small bets to try to win 9.25 small bets-- you therefore only need to win 40% of these confrontation to break even. Take it from there.