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sarbox68

10-20-2006, 04:58 PM Post subject: Playing overcards

#1 (permalink)

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Out of 12K hands, I'm running into this 8 out of 10 times that I get premium non-pockets. Here's an example....

I have AJs UTG (could be any similar premium non-pocket hand). I raise. Called by MP and the BB. Ragged flop (Qc, 6s, 3h). Now what? 3rd ed. WLLHE says to just fold with overs... period. SSHE says consider the draws and pot size.

Okay... but in the majority of my situations I got no draws (or at best a gutshot) and a mid-to-small pot.

So do I...
... c-bet/raise the flop to try and win right there?
... check-fold?

Usually (90%) when I c-bet/raise I get at least one caller and miss the turn, then end up folding on the turn or river to a bet and are 1 or 2SB poorer. So I've been check-folding, but then feel like I'm wasting my PF raise (not to mention feeling like I'm wasting 80+% of my "playable" hole cards)

Any thoughts?? Is this a real strategy issue or am I just on the downside of some variance thing that will take care of itself over time?

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elipsesjeff

10-20-2006, 06:53 PM

#2 (permalink)

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elipsesjeff is an unknown quantity at this point

If you always cbet, always call, always raise, etc then you give up way too much information. You can probably still make a profit (small one) by flat out check/folding these flops, as that is what WLLH is trying to teach you.

The Cbet when checked to you is the only obvious play, I dont i know of a hand where I've raised the preflop and not bet the flop, without any resistance. It must be one HELL of a board to do that, like 678 all spades, 8 way to the flop, when I have AKo, no spades. Thats like the only time.

When you are bet into, you should consider SSH's approach and go from there.

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NWNewell

10-20-2006, 07:10 PM

#3 (permalink)

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Well, for one... you do not have two overs to that board... you've got ONE! Only the Ace when you hold AJ on a Q6h rainbow.

You've got 3 outs if you are lucky. MP could have very easilly cold called with AQ (AQs is one of the few hands that an argument can be made to cold call in a loose game).

Even if you have a bad door flush draw, you probably only have 2-3 effective outs.

So, lets assume you do have the bad door flush draw and optimistically you think you've got 3 effective outs.

You've got 6sb in the pot and if the BB bets, you are getting 7:1 pot odds for worse than a 13:1 shot. Very bad odds. Just give it up.

If the BB checks, you can bet and will have the same odds to hit. But you pick up some fold equity by trying to push the other two out of the pot. The problem is you betting in to MP who cold called preflop. And is very likely to have hit the queen, or at least has a hand that he will call the flop bet with. And if he doesn't the BB might call. Trying to semi-bluff with a weak draw in a multiway pot out of position is typically not a good idea. MP could raise.

If you did actually have two overs (AKs on that board), things are a little better. You are looking at 4-5 outs at best with the addition of a backdoor flush draw (because you'r outs could very easily be dirty). So you're still looking at 7:1 pot odds with a 9:1 shot, still not good odds. This is a little tougher.

Typically, if I miss the flop with only over cards and am bet into, I usually fold (regardless of position), unless there pot is really big. If I miss the flop in a multi-way pot, I don't often semi-bluff out of position (i mix this up a little depending on the table). If I miss the flop with position in a multi-way pot, I typically semi-bluff when checked to. I often semi-bluff out of position heads up. Heads up with position, I almost always continuation bet when checked to.

Basically, it is only worth continuing if the pot is already huge, or you have a big chance to pick up the pot on a semi-bluff because of position or heads-up agression.

Drawing odds with only two overs usually suck (especially, because of the possibility of dirty outs) and it's not worth it unless the pot is really big (in bigger multiway pots, you 've got dirty outs and less of a chance to win. In heads up pots, the pot usually is too small even if you have all 6 clean outs). Much of the value in this siutaion comes from fold equity. In your perticular spot, I would usually check, occationally Cbet (but would be more inclinded to do that with two overs... still checking the majority of the time).

At least that's my two cents... but I suck... so take it for what it's wroth...

My "Operation Come Back" Thread: Interupted.

sarbox68

10-20-2006, 07:43 PM

#4 (permalink)

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Um... yeah, so I also demonstrated that I am semi-retarded....

Yes, bad example as only one over. The feedback was terrific tho', and I appreciate you also covering what I INTENDED which is landing with 2 overs.

Basically what I'm hearing is that if in doubt, follow WLLH's advise to just straight up fold overs that totally miss the flop unless there's some REAL compelling flush or straight draw to get excited about (and I'm assuming that means AT LEAST a 4-flush or OE straight draw or combo of both on the flop...) - and of course the pot is large enough to give you odds based primarily on these draws.

Otherwise, run... run away!!!!

elipsesjeff

10-20-2006, 09:02 PM

#5 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by sarbox68

Basically what I'm hearing is that if in doubt, never follow WLLH's advise

FYP

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NWNewell

10-21-2006, 12:14 AM

#6 (permalink)

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Join Date: Aug 2006

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Quote:

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

Quote:

Originally Posted by sarbox68

Basically what I'm hearing is that if in doubt, never follow WLLH's advise

FYP

FYP????

I wouldn't say follow or never follow. For me it kind of depends. It is usually a bet or check/fold situation for me though. (unless as I said, the pot is really big... becuase you're drawing odds are no good)

Bet if you think the chances of your picking up the pot right there are decent (for example, if checked to with position or heads up against a tighter player).

Fold if you don't think your chances are very good to pick up the pot right (if bet into, or out of position to a couple oppoenents).

To me, playing two missed overs is not a straight forward all or nothing. It depends on position and fold equity.

My "Operation Come Back" Thread: Interupted.

Ragnar4

10-21-2006, 09:32 AM

#7 (permalink)

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My Question... is AJs UTG really a premium hand? I tend to think it's more of a raise with it and hope a c-bet fold my opponents off of any retarded flop kind of a hand. I'm more inclined to try to get a volume pot for a flush draw or brodway straight or a nasty two pair with AJs because AQ, AK, KQ, all suited and unsuited... Along with AA, KK, QQ, and in some cases JJ and TT may pop you back for a re-raise. you're only head of TT, and that's a coinflip. Those hands that call you here when you're looking for a volume pot nasty hand will get involved and pour a lot of money away trying to protect their vulnerable hand.

The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?

sarbox68

10-21-2006, 06:14 PM

#8 (permalink)

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Join Date: Sep 2006

Location: wondering where the 3 extra chairs at my 6max table came from

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I raise AJs if first in from UTG for the following reasons...
1) Both WLLHE and SSHE have told me to (and who am I to argue???)
2) The above referenced and others talk so much about "no limp," "pump or dump," "raise or fold" when first in from EP

Am I off on this???

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