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playing the Nut Flush draw heads up OOP

  
 
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snowboard_31
Old 02-07-2008, 07:28 PM     Post subject: playing the Nut Flush draw heads up OOP #1 (permalink)  
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no notes on villian, table has been fairly aggressive. The pot is only 0.65 (2.5 SB's). Is leading out here ok? Im only scared it leaves us open to a
raise, but I dont think vilian is capable of raising unless he has middle pair or better. Does this lead help us disguise the draw and find out where were at? BUT what is the plan going to the turn if he does call?

The other option, checking hoping for a free turn I think is out the window, i guestimate he raises my check 85-90% of the time. Then the pot will contain 0.90 offering a little under 4:1 for one card (as I expect to pay a big bet on the turn for another card).


Full Tilt 0.25/0.5 Hold'em (9 handed)Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, 9.
5 folds, CO calls, 2 folds, Hero checks.

Flop: (2.40 SB) 3, 4, 7 (2 players)
[color=#CC3333]Hero ....

edit: forgot to add that I also have 2 overs, therefore somewhere in the neighborhood of 9+3+3 outs.
1. Get a seat to their right
2. Steal blinds at will
3. ...
4. Profit
"It should be a crime to not bet if someone has checked to you twice."
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dsaxton
Old 02-07-2008, 10:37 PM #2 (permalink)  
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You have an equity edge heads-up against a limper, so I would raise preflop.

On the flop I would bet / 3-bet or check-raise since you're almost guaranteed to be a favorite. Check-raising is nice because you're typically a much larger favorite against his betting range when you check (which is very weak for almost all players) than his raising range when you bet. I'd prefer to be confident my opponent is betting close to 100% of the time before attempting a check-raise, though.

The turn and river can be awkward to play in this situation, but I'm usually tempted to just bet the whole way if I don't improve if there's some chance he'll fold a pair.
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snowboard_31
Old 02-08-2008, 01:01 AM #3 (permalink)  
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I like check raising as it could also contribute to future free cards when seeing a flop cheap in the blinds, scare them off of betting with air on the flop. Though not so sure how good micro stakes players memories are.

Regret to say that I donkily b/c, c/c, c/folded after unimproved by the river. ugh.
1. Get a seat to their right
2. Steal blinds at will
3. ...
4. Profit
"It should be a crime to not bet if someone has checked to you twice."
-soupie
"If you can pinpoint a player's range, you can own his soul."
-Bond18
 
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Hermann the Lombard
Old 02-08-2008, 05:11 PM #4 (permalink)  
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I would like to make a semi-bluff c/r but with no notes and no PFR I wouldn't assume that villain would bet, so I would. I would bet because there are several ways to win here: he could fold, Ace-high could be the best hand, or we could hit a draw.

dsaxton, I find your comment interesting: "Check-raising is nice because you're typically a much larger favorite against his betting range when you check (which is very weak for almost all players) than his raising range when you bet." That sounds true only if his hand changes based on your action (quantum mechanical poker?) Presumably he will indeed bet with a wider range than he would raise, but what about his calling range when you bet? Also, unless this player is unusually tricky for this level I would think that a raise would be fairly reliable information. I don't really understand why your EV would be better if you check than if you bet.
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arborman
Old 02-08-2008, 07:10 PM #5 (permalink)  
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arborman
Raise preflop, maybe you can take it by betting out on the flop.

As played, oop heads up with a flush draw and overcards, without reads, I think betting out is -EV. You only barely have equity to call for one bet on the flop, unless you think he will fold to your bet. 15 outs is optimistic, as he could have you dominated or have hit with ace rag as well, so say 13 outs to be safe (and safe is best oop in a tiny pot like this).

There is nothing wrong, in a tiny pot like this, with check-calling flop (at 3.4:1 for a call and having ~1:3.6 odds). Implied odds make it a just barely legitimate call, and if you give yourself a full 15 outs it is slightly profitable to call flop.

On the turn, UI, with 13 outs your equity is 1:3.5, and it is 1:2.2 to call, so I check and fold. Even with all 15 outs you have only 1:3.2, so a call is not profitable here. On top of that, your best hope is that a heart will fall on the river, in which case any villain with a half a clue will either fold or check behind, meaning you lose any implied odds even if you do manage to hit - unless you hit your 9 maybe, which is only 3 of the outs (1:15) .

Even as played the turn should probably be folded: calling, with all 15 outs, is exactly neutral EV, and if any outs are tainted it is -EV.

This is a tiny pot, it is not weak or nitty to fold when calling is -EV. The only time it is worth calling is if you have a very specific read that villain will bet repeatedly with air, but this guy didn't even have the guts to raise preflop, which suggests he has something he likes postflop.

I know aggression is the default recommendation sometimes, but in tiny pots like this there is no point, and it costs chips. Save the aggression for pots that are worth winning.

There are other lines that might prove profitable, but they require a raise preflop and a bet 3bet on the flop. And most importantly they require some kind of read.
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arborman
Old 02-08-2008, 07:13 PM #6 (permalink)  
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arborman
Checkraising the flop is only worth it if you plan to bet out turn and possibly river no matter what cards actually hit. So many players will call down with any pair that it is probably not worth it in this tiny pot.

And if you do checkraise and are 3bet it is time to fold and move on with your life with some chips intact.
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Ragnar4
Old 02-08-2008, 08:53 PM #7 (permalink)  
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bet/raise/cap preflop. Get as much money in the pot as you can. These kinds of hands win huge pots, and you want the pot to be huge.

Turn and river is where this stuff gets scary. I'm a fan of firing the turn when I miss and slowing down on the river. Just because you'll get a free showdown 9 times out of 10 when he thinks your trying to checkraise. If you hit, just keep pounding.
The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?
 
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arborman
Old 02-08-2008, 10:28 PM #8 (permalink)  
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arborman
Am I the only one who has noticed that the pot is tiny?

And building a pot preflop so you will have the odds to call or raise postflop seems spewy to me. Build a pot preflop because you are ahead, sure, but someone who openlimps lp isn't going to 3bet you, and you already know you will be heads up on the flop.

This pot is too small to play with much seriousness, IMO. Sure it's psychologically satisfying when the draw comes in and we win, but usually it doesn't and we lose. Playing this hand from the turn onwards is -EV.
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DrivingDog
Old 02-09-2008, 12:33 PM #9 (permalink)  
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It's distinctly possible that we have both the best hand and the best draw here. Villian could have KT, QJ, JT, A6, etc. Against villian's entire limping range our equity has to be well above 50%.

I c/r the flop and lead the turn. If villian doesn't show any more aggression after his c-bet on the flop I c/c the river. If he 3bets the flop or raises the turn I fold the river UI.
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dsaxton
Old 02-10-2008, 09:33 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Arborman, two overcards and the nut flush draw is a very strong hand in this situation, and it should be played aggressively. He is clearly a significant favorite here against the limper's range, and is correct in going to the river no matter what his opponent has. I have no idea how you came to the conclusion that continuing from the turn on has negative expected value.
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arborman
Old 02-10-2008, 10:16 PM #11 (permalink)  
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arborman
Preflop he is a favourite against the limper's range. He told us that he bet-called flop - so the limper raised him. Postflop we have more information.
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dsaxton
Old 02-10-2008, 11:55 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Arborman, two live overcards with the nut flush draw is a significant favorite over top pair, and a huge favorite over a worse draw, which together constitute the bulk of the limper's range once he raises the flop.
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arborman
Old 02-11-2008, 03:46 AM #13 (permalink)  
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2 live overs and a nut flush draw would mean 15 outs - just under 1/3 of the deck. So we are actually about 36% to win against top pair on the flop, if we assume everything is good and he doesn't hold one of our overs.

Calling the flop raise is fine - it costs much less than 35% of the pot. On the turn, unimproved, we have one card left to come and a slightly higher percentage of the pot is ours in equity. But mathematically speaking, the call is exactly neutral EV wise.

There are other considerations like reads that can have a huge impact on a hand like this, but we don't have any reads other than that the guy openlimped in late position, and raised the flop. So he's passive preflop and raised something.

If even one of our outs is tainted we are behind and it is not profitable to call the turn.

When a player that is passive enough to openlimp in CO raises on the flop, he likely has something appealing. It is possible he is drawing, but it is more likely he has a pair and (possible) a draw also.
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dsaxton
Old 02-11-2008, 11:25 AM #14 (permalink)  
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Arborman, I have no idea where you got this information, but it's wrong. Please check a poker odds calculator like the one on twodimes.net.
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Jibalob
Old 02-11-2008, 01:32 PM #15 (permalink)  
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This is precisely why you need to pump the pot pre-flop in this kind of situation.

You are easily ahead of CO's open-limping range here so raise for value / equity.

What you do not want to do is check preflop whilst and give villain a chance to take the lead postflop. For arguement's sake just pretend you DIDN'T flop the nut flush draw. You are still likely ahead of villains range yet if you check and he takes a stab at the pot you have to lay it down as you do not have the odd to improve or any way of knowing if you are ahead/behind on a blank turn.

Now, considering the hand posted - as played so far, if you count your flush outs as your ONLY clean outs, raising preflop would have inflated the pot enough (whilst likely ahead remember) to be able to check/call the flop profitably here. With only 2.5sb in the pot you DO NOT have the odds to call hoping to hit your flush on the turn (ignoring implied odds).

OK - so I think I've made my case for raising preflop, now onto the hand as played. This is an easy bet/3-bet for me, again we are likely ahead here and want to get our money in the pot, attempting the check/raise is dangerous unless you are certain villain will bet. We don't want it checking through and a non-heart K/Q/J/T landing on the turn as we will have to lay it down right there. Get your money in good on the flop, take the lead in the hand, give yourself an extra way to win.
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arborman
Old 02-11-2008, 03:25 PM #16 (permalink)  
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arborman
Raising preflop makes perfect sense to me - A9s is definitely ahead of villain, so it is getting money in while ahead. Raising preflop to ensure you have the pot odds to call later in the hand seems like specious logic to me.

As played I still see the hand as a fold on the turn. I'm open to being convinced otherwise, but 'you're wrong' is not a convincing argument.
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DrivingDog
Old 02-11-2008, 06:07 PM #17 (permalink)  
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There's a lot of different ways to play this hand and I think sensible arguments have been made for all of them. To me, the critical thing missing is a read on our opponent because that makes a huge difference in how we approach the hand.

Preflop - with no read, we can assume limper is somewhat loose-passive, so raise is probably a good idea. If we do raise then we definitely need to bet the flop. Not so sure 3betting is in order on this board but it's close. With no read at this level I'd be tempted to think a flop raise means we're behind. Could be wrong though.

Aggressive-limper (oxymoron?). Checking behind preflop has it's merits if villian is prone to bet the flop and turn with an Ace on board (as many are) regardless of his holding because we stand to make the most when we're ahead that way and lose the least those times we're behind.

Postflop - I don't expect many villians to check behind on this flop. If they do then it's pretty easy to bet the turn. If villian bets and we c/r, getting 3bet is a pretty good indication that we're losing and are drawing. Neither the flush nor the Ace draw have very good implied odds, so I don't see the point of jamming the flop. Maybe i'm wrong.

I think calling the turn bet with A9s as Snowboard did getting 3.5:1 is ok, since we stand to make one more bet on the river if we hit. So effectively we're getting 4.5:1 with a 26% chance of improving to top pair or better. And a 9 will sometimes make us the best hand as well.
"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
 
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