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Played badly, can I value-raise river?

  
 
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Knytestorme
Old 01-31-2009, 03:04 AM     Post subject: Played badly, can I value-raise river? #1 (permalink)  
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I sort of played this badly, plan was to go for a c/r on the turn but decided against it for some reason...given the play to the river though, can we reasonably put a 7 in anyones hand enough times to make a river raise here not +ev?

1/2 Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($43.00)
UTG+1 ($194.50)
CO ($35.75)
BTN ($65.00)
SB ($16.50)
Hero (BB) ($69.00)

Pre-flop: (1.5 SB, 6 players) Hero is BB
UTG calls, 1 fold, CO calls, BTN calls, SB calls, Hero checks

Flop: (5.0 SB, 5 players)
SB bets, Hero calls, 1 fold, CO raises, BTN calls, SB folds, Hero calls

Turn: (6.0 BB, 3 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, BTN calls, Hero calls

River: (9.0 BB, 3 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, BTN calls, Hero ????
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bigspenda73
Old 01-31-2009, 03:25 AM #2 (permalink)  
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bigspenda73 will become famous soon enoughbigspenda73 will become famous soon enough
 why didnt you raise the turn

river looks like an easy raise
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Knytestorme
Old 01-31-2009, 03:36 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigspenda73
why didnt you raise the turn

river looks like an easy raise
I honestly can't recall why I didn't...I'd love to say misclick but I think if you look at my other thread, this hand happened around the bottom of the graph and I was likely subconsciously waiting to not see a heart hit the board.

I agree, I think a raise here is fine as I can't see anyone logically holding a 7 here with the way the hand has played so far. I think I make the decision a lot hard because I didn't raise the turn.
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Chopper
Old 01-31-2009, 05:58 PM #4 (permalink)  
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as played, i raise the river and call a 3bet. but, i doubt i will see a 3bet.
LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
 
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Lance
Old 02-01-2009, 07:24 PM #5 (permalink)  
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what the hell...

Raise the turn and the river as well.
1st villain has Jack and 2nd flush....if they are a little serious not donkeys
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DrivingDog
Old 02-02-2009, 11:01 AM #6 (permalink)  
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3bet the flop. CO might have Jx and get scared if an overcard or heart comes. Just keep firing away.

As played, it's not a question of whether you CAN value raise the river, it's a question of how badly you MUST value raise the river. Once in a blue moon someone will have 7x or JJ but waaay more often they won't. Moreover, your raise will get zero respect because you didn't raise on an earlier street, so the chances of getting paid off are v. good.

EDIT: And someone might even 3 bet you with a flush which is even better.
"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
 
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Knytestorme
Old 02-03-2009, 12:15 AM #7 (permalink)  
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Thank all for the opinions and they are all perfectly valid and correct.

Sadly, I didn't raise and just called behind wary of being an underboat and not wanting to have to decide what to do if I got re-raised.

This hand is an example of why we can't be worried about monsters under the bed and should be willing to get it in there when we're good and how worrying about these things lead us to lose value.

If I am only running at +1bb/100 then missing the value of an extra 1BB here on the river with the effective nuts given the play of the hand means I have to play 100 more hands just to make up for one badly played hand.
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Chopper
Old 02-03-2009, 12:58 AM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Knytestorme
If I am only running at +1bb/100 then missing the value of an extra 1BB here on the river with the effective nuts given the play of the hand means I have to play 100 more hands just to make up for one badly played hand.
this very thought runs through my mind every time i miss a value bet. and, this is why so many players dont actually play profitably. they spew off that 1BB....and never make up for it elsewhere. (side thought: how many BBs/100 do the blinds take from you just to start with? WOW)

but, also, the past is the past....trying to make up for that lost BB will crush you, too. and, that may be the tougher pill to swallow....how many times do you go on slight tilt trying to play a bit of catchup?
LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
 
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socal1111
Old 02-04-2009, 03:38 AM #9 (permalink)  
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The bets you missed in this hand will add-up very very fast. I actually like leading this flop, hoping for someone to get out of line, so I can either 3bet or C/R turn.

Get rid of this FPS! BET! BET! BET!

The river is irrelevant. You should've been asking about the other streets you lost tons of value on!
"We don't stop playing because we get old. We get old because we stop playing!" -Doyle
 
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