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play when the flop pairs or 3 suited
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wufwugy
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07-12-2006, 11:57 PM
Post subject: play when the flop pairs or 3 suited
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 1,660
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what's standard play when you flop something like TPTK or TPGoodK and the flop is paired or 3 flush?
if the question is too vague then tell me and i'll post a myriad more specific ones including position, number of opponents, etc.
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6high
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Straight
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: NZ
Posts: 136
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The answer to a lot of these situations is to raise a non-flush turn card.
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wufwugy
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 1,660
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okay
i didn't phrase it well earlier.
when the flop pairs and you dont have a piece of the pairing, what are the odds that somebody else has trips when againt one opp? two opps? three opps? four opps? five opps?
the same for 3flush flops, when you have none of the suit, what are the odds that somebody else has a flush when against one opp? two opps? three opps? four opps? five opps?
i play 1/2 at Pacific, and for the most part i've taken a call down strategy when against one or two opps in these situations. when i run good they rarely have the flush or trips, yet tried to represent, but when i run bad they always seem to get them. i really have no clue how to play against aggression when the flop is paired or 3flush and i dont have any of it.
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Xanadu
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Full House
Join Date: May 2005
Location: st. paul, MO
Posts: 966
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HU, if opponent has a random hand, a little over 4% chance they have the flush. In practice, this is higher because people play suited cards more. Actual chance is probably anywhere between 5-8%. 6-way, against random hands, it's still only a 20% chance someone has the flush. Actual chance more in the 30% range.
As far as trips on a paired board, It's about 8% HU, and 35% against 5 opponents. Here, however, the actual chances are generall lower. People don't play many hands that have 2s and 3s in them, so if there are 2 2s, the chances are much slimmer than against a random hand (could be lower than a 2% chance against some players, for example, if I had a 2 and I was UTG against you, the only hand I could have is 22 for quads). Although if the pair is Aces, the chance is usually much higher than 8% because most Aces get played.
For the trips, here's an example from a SNG I played this afternoon. I have JJ in the BB, and opponent was on the button. Blinds were 15/30. He raised to 90 preflop, I reraised to about 250 and he called. Flop was 445, 2 clubs. I bet 300 and he raises for my last 450 chips. Usually this would be a very strong hand, but ... Only complete donks (rare in the daytime at the stakes I play) could have a 4 or 5 here other than 44 or 55 which are still rather unlikely. KK, AA, and to a lesser extent QQ and JJ, will very often go all-in preflop here. This left 66-TT and 2 big clubs as the most likely hands. Easy call after reasoning through. He turned over 99, and I double up.
The point is that the preflop history has a big effect on the actual odds, and you shouldn't have a specific strategy for TPTK against 3 flush cards with 3 opponents and so on. The odds of a flush or trips can vary widly depending on what has happened previously with the hand and playing tendencies of specific players.
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wufwugy
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 1,660
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thanks.
my purpose for asking the question was to know, assuming no reads at all, if the majority of the time an opponent has trips or flush and my pair is no good, or vise versa.
how im reading what you've told me seems to suggest that the majority of the time nobody has the trips or flush, so assuming a hypothetical 'all-in' cirucmstance i would come out on top over time. of course, that's not the only way that poker is played, but it's necessary to understand in order to get better.
am i right?
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