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mike4066
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11-11-2004, 02:42 AM
Post subject: Play on the turn? Overpair on a coordinated flop.
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 1,943
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Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed)
Preflop: Hero is CO with Q , Q .
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, Hero raises, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls, MP3 calls.
Flop: (8.50 SB) 9 , J, T (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, MP3 bets, Hero raises, BB folds, UTG 3-bets, MP3 folds, Hero calls.
Turn: (7.75 BB) 3 (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero ...
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Nehmer
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Decatur, IL
Posts: 666
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Definate fold. Unless he is just incredibly aggressive, I see a 3 bet into that flop as a clear sign of a lot of strength. Don't even know if I'd call the 3-bet to see the turn as I might be basically drawing dead.
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scgolfer
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Full House
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 629
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With the size of the pot I make calls at least until river.
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Holy crap I cant play against Yoda!!
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zenbitz
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 2,911
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He probably has at worst a flush draw, but only a maniac (or good aggressive player!) is going to 3-bet a flush draw. More likely he has a made J-high straight or flush. I guess he could be raising 2 people with AJ... I guess...
Naw, he's got a flush or straight. You have 2 dirty Q outs, and 8 straight outs, one for the nut, and the Q-high is probably good.
I think I lay it down, even with 9:1 I am getting on a call. The reason is, he called the raise, which mean I make it much more likely for him to have the flush, and you are drawing dead.
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lonnie
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Full House
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 923
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This is not the best flop for you, but there is no way I lay this one down. I am hesitant to give a headsup opp credit for holding suited cards unless I have a good read on them. I call this one down.
Without a read on this guy, there are too many hands that you beat that he may play this way. He DIDN'T raise the pot coming, so AA KK are probably not there. He's UTG, so I can't see low suited connectors. I'm thinkin a hand like AJ. Maybe he's got the A of spades. Top pair/top kicker with a great shot at the nut flush. I would 3 bet that.
The weird thing about the hand. Hero calls the 3 bet on the flop, and the 3c comes off. That card is great for you! If you are not going to continue the hand after that cards comes off, what card exactly were you waiting for? If you make the straight, do you call? If you make trips on the turn, now do you call? Or raise? Neither of these hands beat the flush you are worried about.
edit: KQ is definitely another possibility for the flat call for UTG.
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elipsesjeff
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Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 4,900
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You also have to think about the timing of this all. I would be more worried about this hand if he 3-bet on the turn instead of the flop. I would definately check-call him down, if another spade comes you're done for.
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ChezJ
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11-12-2004, 08:21 AM
Post subject: my guess
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#7 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Washington, D.C.
Posts: 1,456
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my uneducated guess is KQ, a good limp UTG. i think he clearly had a made hand on the flop. the reason is that he didn't just 3-bet, he CHECK-RAISED the flop, then he led out on the turn which was a blank. that's exactly what i do when i have some made hand that is vulnerable to being beaten on the next card. he could have some weak flush or, more likely a straight. i'm more inclined to guess straight because that would explain trying to take down the pot on the flop rather than on the turn, when another spade would kill his straight.
i think your QQ is drawing to the three non-spade kings, and even then you may be crushed. i'd be folding here.
ChezJ
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fxh269
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 2
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For the site as a whole the analysis is good, and the posters are friendly... I have but one gripe. You guys must have really short attention spans, as this is the 40th or 50th thread where a poster talks about a hand that he played yet FAILS TO POST WHAT FINALLY HAPPENED!! For the love of God man, complete the post. I feel like I'm reading the Gunslinger series by Stephen King. 
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|~|ypermegachi
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: emo-kid
Posts: 3,580
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what was your read on the player?
actually on such a coordinated flop i might even dump it on the flop to the 3 bet. check raises often mean 2 things...protecting hands, or tapping people for more bets.
his check raise into 2 aggressors is just screaming that he made a hand already. you don't have a spade, you are either way ahead or way behind...and for this hand it's likely you're behind.
anyways it really depends on your read to dump it or call down. i'll fold to passive players, but call down aggressive players.
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|~|ypermegachi
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: emo-kid
Posts: 3,580
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by fxh269
For the site as a whole the analysis is good, and the posters are friendly... I have but one gripe. You guys must have really short attention spans, as this is the 40th or 50th thread where a poster talks about a hand that he played yet FAILS TO POST WHAT FINALLY HAPPENED!! For the love of God man, complete the post. I feel like I'm reading the Gunslinger series by Stephen King. |
you're not supposed to post the result because it tends to give biased opinions.
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gabe
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: trying to live
Posts: 7,964
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he means after a few days (at most) of analyzing situations, the results should be posted. this is often neglected.
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steelwheel
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Straight
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 162
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If the player is tight, I would have folded to the 3bet on the flop, but if he is aggressive I might call it down to river (but more than likely I would have folded).
I say that guy has QK (i.e. flooped a straight) and is trying to protect his made hand on the flop with the checkraise.
But seeing as I think you wouldve folded on the turn, I dont think we are going to find out.
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There is more to poker than life
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steelwheel
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Straight
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 162
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three to a straight flush is one of the scariest flops you can see! suck
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There is more to poker than life
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