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PL100 - mid set, OOP, draw heavy, passive table

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glass_onion

04-17-2007, 05:07 PM Post subject: PL100 - mid set, OOP, draw heavy, passive table

#1 (permalink)

Join Date: Apr 2007

Posts: 23

This hand was posted in 2+2 forum, where it got some idiotic feedback and never really recovered as a legit post. I'll save my line and reasoning until after we've had 2+ comments here.
----

PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha High, $1.00 BB (9 handed) internettexasholdem.com

CO ($113)
Button ($361.20)
Hero ($100.30)
BB ($443.30)
UTG ($35.60)
UTG+1 ($38.95)
MP1 ($72.15)
MP2 ($72.50)
MP3 ($103.95)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 3, A, J, J. rainbow (**NOTE, Ace is of CLUBS**)

CO posts a blind of $1.50.
2 folds, MP1 calls $1, MP2 calls $1, MP3 calls $1, CO (poster) checks, 1 fold, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($6.50) Kc, Jc, 8s (6 players) (**2 club FD**)
Hero checks, BB bets $3, MP1 calls $3, MP2 folds, MP3 calls $3, CO calls $3, Hero ???

Table is pretty passive. My line with top set here would usually be wait until the turn to CR since I really can't raise enough on the flop. The problem is with this line with middle set is that I might run into KK doing the betting on the turn. This may just be monsters under the bed, but I think it's wrong to go broke against KK here in an unraised pot. With middle set, my feeling is that I should raise like 1/2-3/4 pot to try to get a passive KK to expose his hand. I suppose I might wake up a wrap str8 + flush draw or a doofy 88, but I don't think that's likely to happen at this table. Then I plan on potting any safe turn, including any club. I don't know what these guys are calling with, but I figure a variety of crappy str8 and flush draws, so I'm hoping their outs are interfering to make a smaller raise safe. Thoughts on this line?

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elipsesjeff

04-17-2007, 06:48 PM

#2 (permalink)

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why would a club be a safe turn? With this many players in I would normally wait until turn to raise given the way you played it. I would rather just lead pot on flop though.

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zenbitz

04-17-2007, 07:43 PM

#3 (permalink)

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Join Date: Jul 2004

Posts: 2,911

I assume clubs are *relatively* safe since hero holds the A.
5 way - you cannot possibly dodge all the outs that beat JJJ here. You are only crushed by KK so I just raise pot on flop.

Pot will be too big to do this on the turn, I think.

glass_onion

04-17-2007, 10:20 PM

#4 (permalink)

Join Date: Apr 2007

Posts: 23

Here was my initial post:

I don't think raising the flop is a good idea given the passive nature of the table. First, any number of draws might not like to go all in on the flop, but would have easy odds if you bet and anything raises you (like KK, or a draw hand for whatever reason).

Secondly, you might just run off 88.

third, since the table is so passive, don't pot commit them. If a nice low club comes you can blush the turn and probably take it down on a passive table, again, IF YOU don't raise flop and pot commit them.

While getting it all in with the only set against two draws is indeed profitable, you might be up against KK as you said and that possiblity negates it. The most profitable situation in PLO though, is set over set, so hope a blank falls or a low club hits on the turn, and reevaluate.
-------------------------
Here is a knowledgeable poster's line:"
To clarify, when you're out of position, you want two things. Either keep the pot small until the river then make it big, or get it all in on the flop.
If you can't achieve the flop shove, which you will surely fail on, then you want to get to the river without making the pot too big. This way should someone outdraw you, it wont cost you too much.
As you are out of position, your mistakes will cost you more money and your opponents mistakes will cost him less money.
So bet an amount that will string along 2 pair or bottom set, and consider going for a big bet on the river (which will look like a bluff with a busted draw) or do the "ohnoes i've missed my draw" check and hope your opponent will value bet allowing you to check raise and make the pot big.
-----
To which I replied:
the only way to 'keep it small' is to c/c flop, c/c turn, as someone is betting this hand on the TURN EVERY TIME, right??? Blank, spade, broadway, etc. They might check a board pair, but we've already talked about that.

And I was saying that that line is awful, and it sounds like you agreee. No implied odds, cant draw profitably.

I see the turn like this.

You are either 75% favorite against a single caller, on a blank
* a 25% dog if the st8 hits
*a 25% dog if the flush hits, but since there is 2+ psb left over, you can easily bluff the flush (BLUSH) and be successful 90% of the time in my experience, and have odds if not
*some of the time you will be drawing to 1 out, but not terrifically often
*if the pot goes multiway with bets and raises on the turn you are morelikely to be against kk than bottom set, and even if you went all in against a made st8 and bottom set, that situation isn't profitable enough to make up for the times you get it in at 3% against KK + made hand (or draw).

At a passive table (making bottom set pushes LESS Likely) I don't see any profitable line here if you don't have the balls to pull a blush. You just don't have the implied odds to hit the FH, you will always be charged on the turn to keep drawing, and sometimes you are up against KK.

Discuss:

zenbitz

04-17-2007, 11:14 PM

#5 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2004

Posts: 2,911

Actually it's because you are OOP acting first that your line makes the most amount of sense. The PSB is the same whether you do it now or after the turn, but you will have a better idea of where you are when you peel one.

I think if you were caught it the middle, raising (or folding) flop might be better.

I wouldn't expect anyone to ever fold a flush here, though, but maybe people are better/nittier at $100PL.

salsa4ever

04-17-2007, 11:27 PM

#6 (permalink)

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Join Date: Jun 2005

Location: Melbourne

Posts: 1,073

As played I think I call the flop

I'll check raise pot a safe turn, and any club, unless it's like bet-call-raise to me or something ridiculous

My main reason for calling the flop is that if you half pot it now and it comes a blank turn what are you gonna do? You basically have to lead and you'll run off 88 and get smashed by KK.

Also I note your table texture, but 1/2 pot bets arouse suspicion. On my tables if someone makes a half pot bet into a board like this with so many players I'd think you're hand is not that good and tend to felt it with anything that's got more than 10 outs looking for some fold equity. Which is great if that's what you're trying to achieve, but here you're intending to fold to a big re-raise.

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KoRnholio

04-17-2007, 11:37 PM

#7 (permalink)

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This is kind of a tough spot out of position. I think a pot raise and then checking a turn club is best. When you get called on the flop, likely there is a Q or T high flush draw waiting to hit , and you probably won't be able to shake them off for one pot sized bet if the turn brings a club. The benefit of having the naked Ace is that if the flush does hit on the turn, these passive guy will often check behind and give us a free card because they are afraid of the nut flush.

By my calculations, a little under half of all turn cards will be favorable for you (any non-club 2-6 = 15) plus say one K, one J and three 8's. If we make a small raise (say $13 to go) and get 2 callers, the pot size will be about $50 and there will be $85 left behind. This leaves enough room for someone with a straight+flush draw to take another off on to a pot-sized bet and have implied odds against your hand if they hit. (You aren't going to fold $35 into a ~$200 pot if the final board is KcJc829, are you?)

But if we pot it ($24 to go) we may only get one caller (making the pot size $75) or maybe two (pot size $100), and we can then get all in on the turn if it's a nice card.

There's a chance we can run into KK, but it doesn't look like someone has it (one 1/2 pot bet followed by multiple calls). If one of these callers suddenly 3bets us all in, I'd give serious thought to mucking our set. Most people won't call with a draw and then suddenly decide it's good enough to raise all in against a big check-raise.

Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.

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