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Pay off QJ?

  
 
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drmcboy
Old 08-11-2008, 01:52 AM     Post subject: Pay off QJ? #1 (permalink)  
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 No real read, I had a TIGHT note but that was from a 30 SNG so it was probably 3 years ago (and in HE).

Comments on all streets welcome.

I almost folded river - if that's bad, how much do we need behind before I should consider a fold vs unknown?

PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha High, $2 BB (6 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

saw flop|saw showdown

SB ($187.10)
BB ($295.20)
UTG ($304.20)
MP ($389.45)
CO ($396.55)
Hero ($198)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7, 9, 6, 9.
3 folds, Hero raises to $7, SB calls $6, BB calls $5.

Flop: ($21) 8, 4, 6 (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $19.95, SB calls $19.95, BB folds.

Turn: ($60.90) T (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $57.95, SB calls $57.95.

River: ($176.80) 9 (2 players)
SB bets $102.2 (All-In), Hero calls $102.20.

Final Pot: $381.20
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bigspenda73
Old 08-11-2008, 02:17 AM #2 (permalink)  
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 I think the biggest problem with making this call is that even when you're right and he doesn't have QJxx or J7xx you're going to be chopping

This seems like a suicide bluff from an aware player after you've practically potted the flop+turn. However, if he's a thinker he understand how bad this board now looks for a set and certainly could be bluffing putting you on exactly that.

We're getting 2.7:1 so we need to be good 1/3.7 of the time or ~27% however, there is a chopping-dynamic we have to look at.

Let's assign some frequencies:

30% of the time he has a Ten-High straight
65% of the time he has us beat
5% of the time he's bluffing

(.30)(+139)+(.65)(-102)+(.05)(+$279)= -$11

So with those frequencies, which, mind you could be WAY off, we lose nearly $11 on every call.

Bluffing 10% of the time we get:

(.30)(+139)+(.60)(-102)+(.10)(+$279)= +$8.4

So if he's bluffing only 1 in 10 times and value-betting the same hand 3 in ten times it looks like a call. This is a spot where unless you're in it a lot you never going to be totally sure what the right play is. I think if you ever want to know what the correct play is here you'll need to call here. You're going to see the nuts a good amount, let's look at how bad the call could be:

20% Chop
80% Better-hand

(.2)(+139)+(.80)(-102)= -$53.8

So you lose $54 on average on every call in a worse-case scenario.
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drmcboy
Old 08-11-2008, 04:23 AM #3 (permalink)  
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 ty, nice post. I def factored in the value of info when I was calling, I figured/hoped with the price it couldn't be that bad.

FWIW in white:

Seat 1: jjking (small blind) showed [Ks Td 3h Qd] and lost with a pair of Tens
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bigspenda73
Old 08-11-2008, 04:27 AM #4 (permalink)  
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 He has a few major leaks, can you identify any of them?

Also, his bluff is quite good, you just happened to have the bottom of your calling range as I don't believe you'd call with a set here.
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drmcboy
Old 08-11-2008, 06:00 AM #5 (permalink)  
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 drawing to the non nuts

He has meh implied odds

and no pot odds even if he's sure the flush is good

and all this is OOP



I think/hope if I were him I would have folded pre, on the flop and on the turn. I guess I could see a flop CR. I thought the river was the only street he played good. I just looked him up in PT and over 40 hands he ran 60 VPIP, lol
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salsa4ever
Old 08-20-2008, 06:43 AM #6 (permalink)  
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good call.
two flush possibilities makes calling almost mandatory against an unknown.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigred
Would you bone your cousins? Salsa would.
Quote:
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well courtie, since we're both clear, would you accept an invitation for some unprotected sex?
 
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