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Rondavu
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04-18-2005, 01:23 PM
Post subject: Paired Flops
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 3,053
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I've become less and less fearful of paired flops. I started wondering if there was a positive expected value in playing aggressively if you hit the lone card on a paired flop with good kicker. For example, the flop comes out J J 9, and you have A 9 in your hand.
I find myself raising if there is a bet before me on that board with that holding. I used to be scared and either call or just fold thinking if someone else was betting they must have the J, because I have the 9.
How does everyone else interact with a paired flop? Is it in my longterm favor to always assume no one hit the trips? I ask the following math questions...
What are the odds of someone holding the trip card on a paired flop with 2,3, or 4 people in hand? I imagine the odds increase as more hands enter the pot.
How does that effect your value betting in these hands?
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It's not what's inside that counts. Have you seen what's inside?
Internal organs. And they're getting uglier by the minute.
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Room
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Straight
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 197
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Many variables will come into play about your "fear" of a paired board. The all important position plays a key role. The tendencies of your opponents. And the texture - In your example, you hold A9 on a JJ9 board, if the pot is unraised and multiway, theres a good chance someone is holding a J or will stick around on a straight or flush draw. People will limp KJ, QJ, QT, JT.
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Rondavu
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 3,053
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I just read in another thread that it's better to fire away when the pair is a rag. That makes sense to me. Some people limp with weak paint hands.
It's funny, because there's nothing I enjoy more than check raising someone aggressively betting into my flopped trips. It's fun to shock them on the river like a predator in wait, and then get the crying call. Doesn't that make you feel like the president of the United States?
Also, you forgot the hand J9 room.
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It's not what's inside that counts. Have you seen what's inside?
Internal organs. And they're getting uglier by the minute.
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Element187
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Orlando, FL
Posts: 802
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i'll fire into this pot everytime to find where i stand.
if someone has the J they will reraise me
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"Imagine how it would be to be at the top Making cash money, Go and tour all around the world, Tell stories about all the young girls." - The Prodigy - Girls
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Nehmer
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Decatur, IL
Posts: 666
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The way I usually see this work is that if somebody bets out on the flop, they typically do not have the J and you should raise them. If somebody else calls your raise or reraises you, they probably do have the jack. If you bet first and get raised on the flop, they probably do not have the jack(if they did they'd wait for the turn to raise you). People LOVE to try and slowplay flopped trips, so don't believe that aggressive guy that bets out on the flop, but be wary of the people calling bets or especially raises, they might be waiting to raise the turn/river.
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Element187
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Orlando, FL
Posts: 802
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Nehmer
The way I usually see this work is that if somebody bets out on the flop, they typically do not have the J and you should raise them. If somebody else calls your raise or reraises you, they probably do have the jack. If you bet first and get raised on the flop, they probably do not have the jack(if they did they'd wait for the turn to raise you). People LOVE to try and slowplay flopped trips, so don't believe that aggressive guy that bets out on the flop, but be wary of the people calling bets or especially raises, they might be waiting to raise the turn/river.
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that is an excellent point, i never looked at it that way and always get reraised on the turn in this situation and fold.
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"Imagine how it would be to be at the top Making cash money, Go and tour all around the world, Tell stories about all the young girls." - The Prodigy - Girls
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ChezJ
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Washington, D.C.
Posts: 1,456
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Rondavu
It's funny, because there's nothing I enjoy more than check raising someone aggressively betting into my flopped trips. It's fun to shock them on the river like a predator in wait, and then get the crying call. Doesn't that make you feel like the president of the United States?
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not when someone rivers a flush against my slowplay.
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|~|ypermegachi
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: emo-kid
Posts: 3,580
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you guys give too much credit for a flop raise. if you flopped trip jacks would you raise the flop, or raise the turn and tap everyone with a double sized bet? most of the time, i wait for the turn, or even the river if the board needs help.
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Tripps7
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Straight
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 130
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Nehmer
The way I usually see this work is that if somebody bets out on the flop, they typically do not have the J and you should raise them.
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Not everyone 
With a multiway pot, I almost always bet out if I have the trips. Most people don't believe me and they will almost always call if they have anything. Plus I want peeps not getting free cards for their draw. I am praying for a flop raise which then I will usually smooth call and then bet out again on the turn hoping for another raise with which I will then 3 bet. I also get the option of a check raise if I don't think the player will raise my turn bet.
Occasionally I will get busted by someone that flopped a boat. But there's nothing you can do but pay them off...
EDIT: Thinks also works especially well in LP as people think you are buying the pot.
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Demiparadigm
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Party 6 max
Posts: 1,602
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How about playing the A9 as if you had AJ? Check call the flop and check raise the turn, If anyone is left, lead on the river. Won't work if someone has the J, but it'll get almost anyone else to fold. I will sometimes make this play with a hand like 55 or ATs.
If you get reraised,easy fold.
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To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.
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Room
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Straight
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 197
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Demiparadigm
How about playing the A9 as if you had AJ? Check call the flop and check raise the turn, If anyone is left, lead on the river. Won't work if someone has the J, but it'll get almost anyone else to fold. I will sometimes make this play with a hand like 55 or ATs.
If you get reraised,easy fold.
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This will only get hands that you beat to fold and hands that you lose to, to reraise or calldown.
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Demiparadigm
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Party 6 max
Posts: 1,602
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by room
This will only get hands that you beat to fold and hands that you lose to, to reraise or calldown.
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Exactly. I think it is an important idea to add to your game, however. Don't let people think "If he leads on the flop, he has a weak hand" or the converse "a check-raise on the turn means he flopped the nuts"
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To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.
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Rondavu
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 3,053
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The one good thing about this is say you have 4c 9d in big blind, and the flop comes out Jh 9h Jd. I think by betting out your 9, you can scare off overcards that beat you on later streets, while keeping in the straight and flush chasers.
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It's not what's inside that counts. Have you seen what's inside?
Internal organs. And they're getting uglier by the minute.
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honsheung
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Straight
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 153
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by hypermegachi
you guys give too much credit for a flop raise. if you flopped trip jacks would you raise the flop, or raise the turn and tap everyone with a double sized bet? most of the time, i wait for the turn, or even the river if the board needs help.
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SO, if I have 9A, and the board is jj9
the conclusion seems like that
when you are in early postion
bet , if get call, check/fold in turn?
bet , if get reraise, reraise him in flp?
when you have positions.
raise to a bet becasue he won't have the J(he will slow playin turn if he has the j )
if he checks, bet to find out ,if get actions, fold.
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|~|ypermegachi
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: emo-kid
Posts: 3,580
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in most cases you should play aggressively on the flop and fold if they play back at you on the turn/river.
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