"P" is for "Pair"

**sarbox68** · 10-25-2006 03:57 AM

... and the seemingly "pussy" way I'm playing somo of these hands.

Focused in on my Pair play tonight, and came to some conclusions.
1) I am NOT comfortable playing these, so I believe I end up playing them too cautiously. I pretty much see Overpairs, two pairs, sets, etc. around every corner. One hand in particular I folded out of a 15BB pot for 1BB on the turn 'cause I was CONVINCED there be monsters --- and I was holding best hand by the river. I find myself checking on the River because I'm afraid of getting Raised and having to give up an extra BB if I lose the hand, which has me passing on the extra BB when I win. Blah, blah blah..... All in all, too cautious...
2) Since most of my playable hands end up in some kind of TPTK or MP situation, I **THINK** this may be a cause of a big chunk of my leak, as this translates into a lot of hands.

So, to facilitate the ass kicking, here's the following hands for your viewing pleasure.....

Hand 1:

Poker Room skin
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $1/$2
9 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is MP2 with 9

9

3 folds, Hero raises, 2 folds, Button calls (3.5:2), SB calls (5.5:1.5), BB calls (7:1).

Flop: 8

7

4

(8SB, 4 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero calls (9:1), Button calls (10:1), SB folds.

Turn: 3

(5.5BB, 3 players)
BB bets, Hero calls (6.5:1), Button calls (7.5:1).

River: J

(8.5BB, 3 players)
BB bets, Hero calls (9.5:1), Button calls (10.5:1).

Results:
Final pot: 11.5BB

Hand 2:

Poker Room skin
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $1/$2
10 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is UTG with K

K

Hero raises, UTG+1 calls (3.5:2), 6 folds, SB calls (5.5:1.5), BB folds.

Flop: A

8

T

(7SB, 3 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 calls (10:2), SB calls (12:1).

Turn: 8

(6.5BB, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls (7.5:1), SB calls (8.5:1).

River: J

(9.5BB, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 checks.

Results:
Final pot: 9.5BB

Hand 3:

Poker Room skin
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $1/$2
10 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is MP2 with 9

9

UTG folds, UTG+1 calls (1.5:1), 2 folds, Hero raises, MP3 folds, CO 3-bets, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls (7.5:2), Hero calls (9.5:1).

Flop: 3

6

4

(10.5SB, 3 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, CO raises, UTG+1 calls (13.5:2), Hero calls (15.5:1).

Turn: 8

(8.25BB, 3 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, CO bets, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls (9.25:1).

River: 4

(10.25BB, 2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks.

Results:
Final pot: 10.25BB

Hand 4:

Poker Room skin
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $1/$2
10 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is MP3 with A

K

4 folds, MP2 calls (1.5:1), Hero raises, CO folds, Button calls (4.5:2), SB folds, BB calls (6.5:1), MP2 calls (7.5:1).

Flop: K

6

Q

(8.5SB, 4 players)
BB checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, Button calls (9.5:1), 2 folds.

Turn: 7

(5.25BB, 2 players)
Hero bets, Button calls (6.25:1).

River: 8

(7.25BB, 2 players)
Hero bets, Button raises, Hero calls (10.25:1).

Results:
Final pot: 11.25BB

Hand 5:

Poker Room skin
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $1/$2
9 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is SB with Q

K

UTG folds, UTG+1 calls (1.5:1), MP1 folds, MP2 calls (2.5:1), 2 folds, Button calls (3.5:1), Hero calls (4.5:0.5), BB checks.

Flop: 4

K

5

(5SB, 5 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, Button bets, Hero raises, BB folds, UTG+1 calls (8:2), MP2 folds, Button 3-bets, Hero calls (12:1), UTG+1 calls (13:1).

Turn: 3

(7BB, 3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, Button bets, Hero folds, UTG+1 calls (8:1).

River: 3

(9BB, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Button bets, UTG+1 folds.
Uncalled bets: 1BB returned to Button.

Results:
Final pot: 9BB

Hand 6: (my freakin' masterpiece......)

Poker Room skin
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $1/$2
9 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is BB with T

T

UTG folds, UTG+1 calls (1.5:1), MP1, folds, MP2 (poster) checks, 4 folds, 4 folds, Hero raises, UTG+1 3-bets, MP2 calls (4.5:3), Hero calls (7.5:1).

Flop: 9

3

7

(9.5SB, 3 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 calls (10.5:1), MP2 raises, Hero 3-bets, UTG+1 calls (15.5:2), MP2 caps, Hero calls (19.5:1), UTG+1 calls (20.5:1).

Turn: K

(10.75BB, 3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 bets, Hero folds, UTG+1 calls (11.75:1).

River: 6

(12.75BB, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP2 bets, UTG+1 calls (13.75:1).

Results:
Final pot: 14.75BB

There are more, but that is all. Any and all feedback appreciated!

**Nehmer** · 10-25-2006 04:49 AM

Hand 1: This is a must must must raise on the flop. I don't really know what you are afraid of here and you are presented a perfect chance to make Button and SB either call 2 cold or fold.

Hand 2: Really depends a lot on your read of SB. Some people I just throw away my kings to the donk on the flop. Some people I play it the same way you did. Depending on your read of UTG+1 calling 2 bets cold on the flop, it probably makes a turn check/fold the right play too.

Hand 3: I probably bet into CO again on the turn. It is likely that he only has AK/AQ and is going to check the turn/river for a cheap showdown. If he raises the turn again, I will fold if he leans on the passive side of play or call down if he is at all aggressive or known to make the occasional maniacish play.

Hand 4: looks good.

Hand 5: I don't like the turn fold. The guy didn't raise preflop from the button which probably means you aren't up against AK. The other hands we are most worried about are 44 and 55. I just don't often see people 3-bet sets on the flop on relatively safe boards. Usually they would call your flop raise and then raise you back on the turn. So I'm calling down and hoping he's an idiot with KJ/KT or something else stupid.

Hand 6: Ok, this is a really wierd hand. UTG+1 limp/3-bets you preflop. MP2 posts, calls the 3-bet and then goes crazy on the flop with UTG+1 calling along all the way. Since they are both playing stupidly, I don't even wanna try and guess their hands, but MP2 looks like a flopped set or flush/straight draw to me. UTG+1 could have about anything after he doesn't raise the flop. I'd guess one of them has you beat and also fold the turn, but I really don't see plays like this much...

**bigspenda73** · 10-25-2006 07:05 AM

All I can say is NIT
Only advice I can give you is that there is nooo room for caution in LHE. It's the reason I play limit over NL, I really just don't have what it takes to play NL well over the long run. The risk of losing that 1 extra BB should not scare you at all, in fact, it should be comforting that you can never really be put to that huge of a decision.

**sarbox68** · 10-25-2006 07:16 AM

Great point, Big... So in the spirit of that, I'm making the following "3rd week of October" poker resolutions...

1) I will not fold any pot greater than 8BB for a 1BB on the river if I have at least TPTK
2) I will bet aggressively on 4-flush and OE straight draws from the flop for as long as I have at least 2 opps
3) I will not fold any pot greater than 8BB for a 1BB on the river if I have at least TPTK
4) I will trust the pot odds. If they say it's right to bet on the turn or river, I will AT MINIMUM call a bet to get to the SD as cheaply as possible

and finally 5...

5) I will not fold any pot greater than 8BB for a 1BB on the river if I have at least TPTK

That's at least a start....... I'll keep you all posted on how it goes, and I can't thank you enough for providing the gratis feedback!

**kyc12** · 10-25-2006 02:58 PM

Some comments:

1) Raise the flop. You probably have the best hand, sometimes you may not, but what a raise do is to give bad odds for the people yet to act to call. Say someone has A7. He has the odds to call one SB, but not for 2 and you gain a lot of value by raising.

2) I'm not sure about the flop raise. This flop is bad for you KK. The Ace hit, and there are flushdraw and str8 draws out there. If SB bets anything maybe your raise is fine, but with everyone calling I am pretty sure at least one of them have you beat. Definitely not betting the turn as played.

As you see here, you need to consider the flop as well as your hand. KK is stronger than 99, but given the flop and action your 99 should be good a higher % of time than your KK.

I don't have much time, so I'll post short comments for the rest:

3) c/r the flop. If CO 3bet he probably have a bigger pair.

4) Happens to all of us.

5) I'm not ready to fold top pair second best kicker here... even if someone has 2pair, you have more outs than you think...

6) Masterpiece? Maybe you just run into a maniac? If you don't have a read turn fold if fine IMO.... and if you don't use a HUD, GET ONE!!

**Ragnar4** · 10-26-2006 05:29 AM

Hand one: Confront, confront, confront. Be willing to bet out, and raise when you have top pair, especially with a PP. ESPECIALLY since you raised going into the flop. (which bye the way, I don't like all the time with 99. Switch it up... sometimes aggresive, sometimes passive... it plays well both ways.)

Hands that may call your raise, 56 you're destroyed... or 9T OESD that completes on the River may not be willing to get into it behind a re-raise. Sets will pop you back for a cap on the flop. By being willing to be aggressive on the flop, you gain tons of info on how your opponents react. Say you 3-bet on the flop, and he just calls... Thats different info than if you 3-bet and he caps. Depends on the player, but that's the info you're looking for.

Hand 2.
When I'm playing. And a flop like that comes when I have KK or QQ. I try to make a decision right there, and bet and raise like I have the best hand all the way down. If I was wrong, oh well, if not.... they think I'm a genious. Here's the best part. Say someone has A2 and you push em out... you won! hooray!

Hand 3.

Ugh. I've seen people play AK like that in that kidn of a situation... But he prolly had something like TT, or better.
You had a high pair all the way down... show it down as cheaply as possible if you think there's a chance he's bluffing.

Hand 4. yup.. standard.

Hand 5. Your fold was one hell of a tough laydown. But remember, if you up against say... TPTK and 2 pair there. You're pretty good odds to catch back up. With 2 other players that is.

Hand 6. Your masterpiece as in.. you folded and had the best hand after all the action. I only have one thing to say to you... You know How I've been jumping up and down and saying use the flop to bet, bet, bet? That's what he did, and you folded because you were convinced he had a better hand.

**Anosmic** · 10-26-2006 06:01 AM

Originally Posted by sarbox68

Great point, Big... So in the spirit of that, I'm making the following "3rd week of October" poker resolutions...

1) I will not fold any pot greater than 8BB for a 1BB on the river unless I'm >90% sure I'm beat.

FYP.

That's what you have to bear in mind here. If the pot is 9BB and you have to put in just one more bet then he only has to be bluffing/calling down with crap ONCE in ten and it's -EV to fold.

**NWNewell** · 10-30-2006 04:05 PM

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

All I can say is NIT
Only advice I can give you is that there is nooo room for caution in LHE. It's the reason I play limit over NL, I really just don't have what it takes to play NL well over the long run. The risk of losing that 1 extra BB should not scare you at all, in fact, it should be comforting that you can never really be put to that huge of a decision.

I will respectfully disagree with part of this post. Let's think about this for a second. A respectable win rate over the long run is what.... 1 or BB per 100 hands? A good player might bring in 2-3BB per 100hands? So, if you carelessly give an extra 1 or 2 BB per hour, you are going from a winning player to a losing player (or at very least crippling your win rate). So, yes.... unnessicarily risking 1 extra BB worries me.

However, with that said.... as Big said, you should not be too cautious in limit when you think you've got the edge. Afterall, if you are wrong, you are not risking your whole stack... it is only one big bet.

Now, these two previous paragraphs might seem contraditory. So, using your Hand #1, let me try to explain:

Big is right, you should play your 99 agressively as you had no real good reason to believe you were beat up to the river (as Big said, play agressively, not cautiously). However, on the river I don't like betting. I would much rather check/call out of position. Betting is unessecary (and possibly reckless) agression (maybe more careless than reckless). And here is why. By betting out, you can easily be raised costing you an extra bet to showdown, AND you will most likely chace out anyone that can't beat your 99 (maybe someone who paired their 8 will call). So, your bet is not really earning you much value. Not much reward for the risk.

With this sort-of-scare card (possible straight and an over), I would much rather check/call 1bet. This will give someone else the opportunity to bluff at it, and you can see if anyone will raise. If there is a bet and raise, you can safely get out of the way. So, with this check, you can avoid giving up an extra bet and increase your EV by picking off possible bluffs or when people bet a weaker hand because they think you missed a draw, all for the same price as betting out.

Yes, play aggresively (not caustiously).... but look for ways to maximize your EV and avoid giving up extra bets when the risk does not return much reward. I think a river bet falls in to the risk>reward catagory with this this OOP situation.

Hand 2: I bet the river. You were good on the turn, you are most likely good on the river.

Hand 3: I 3-bet the flop and try to define where I'm at on the cheap streets. If he didn't raise preflop with AK or something like that, then he is most likely not going to cap with it. If he caps, you are probably beat.

Hand 4: The flush scares me... I would probably check/call or bet/fold. I'm probably not calling a raise on the river as very, very few players will raise bluff the river and combine that with the fact that the flushdraw makes too much sense. I probably c/c this river out of position for similar reasons as hand #1.

Hand 5: I'm not c/r this hand. I'm betting out. And if someone wants to raise me, I'm 3-betting to put him to the test. If he caps, then he probably has two pair or trips, if he only calls, he probably has KJ or something like that and doesn't give the SB much credit for a good hand. I think he would have raised preflop with AK. Be agressive, take the lead, and define your hand on the cheap streets.

Hand 6: Limp/Raise preflop is usually a huge sign of AA (maybe KK or QQ). Not sure why UTG+1 called down afterwards. But with the Limp/Raise and all the action from MP2 on the flop, I don't think our TT is any good. I might fold to the flop cap. And I'm thinking that at best, MP2 is pumping the flush draw and UTG+1 has tied himself to a solid pocket pair 99+. I think we are tyically worse off than that, and even during the rare times that we aren't, their draws will come in often enough... I probably give up on the flop... I don't think we are winning this hand often enough to show down (especially when there could be more raising out of those two). Now, I don't really care about he King. By checking the the turn after all that action, both you and UTG+1 are saying you don't have the King and and pair of kings beat you (or you could be slow playing KKK, but that is very unlikely). With that in mind, a bet from a player that was checked to on the turn with position doesn't convince me of much. If you think your TT's are good on the flop, they are almost as good on the turn. But with all that action and the limp/raise preflop, I'm worried about the TT's on the flop. Tough...

[quote="Anosmic
That's what you have to bear in mind here. If the pot is 9BB and you have to put in just one more bet then he only has to be bluffing/calling down with crap ONCE in ten and it's -EV to fold.[/quote]

It's ZERO EV to fold, not -EV. It is always ZERO EV to fold... you just can't win anything either.

**bigspenda73** · 11-01-2006 06:28 AM

Originally Posted by NWNewell

I will respectfully disagree with part of this post. Let's think about this for a second. A respectable win rate over the long run is what.... 1 or BB per 100 hands? A good player might bring in 2-3BB per 100hands? So, if you carelessly give an extra 1 or 2 BB per hour, you are going from a winning player to a losing player (or at very least crippling your win rate). So, yes.... unnessicarily risking 1 extra BB worries me.

Newell, you assume each time you risk this BB you will lose it, we all know that is not the case, there is no certainty in this game, none at all. Geez, the best quote I've read in a long time is:

"It is ZERO EV to fold"
Now, Im not advocating being a calling station, but if you play weak/tight you are not going anywhere. I think in limit the best strategy is LAGGY to the fullest, it always guarantees you do not miss a bet.

I have a question for you Newell: what pisses you off more, missing a river bet or calling a bet into a pot you know you will most likely not win?

**NWNewell** · 11-01-2006 08:26 PM

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

I have a question for you Newell: what pisses you off more, missing a river bet or calling a bet into a pot you know you will most likely not win?

I'm not assuming we will lose everytime we risk one bet. But I don't always like risking one bet to gain one bet if I most likely will not win (if you are are less than 50% sure, then it is negative EV to risk one bet for one bet... bettor to try to show down as cheap as possible, right?).

But even more so... if you are only alittle over 50% sure you will win the pot, then there is a fair amount of the time that your opponent will fold (so you are rising one bet for effectively less then one bet of reward). And if you are a little less than 50% sure you are going to win the pot, there will be many times that you will be raised on the river (risking more than one bet for the possibility of one bet of reaward). And THAT is what pisses me off the most.

So, if it seems close or questionable that I will win, I like to check/call, and not risk being two bet. Now how questionable or close it is to c/c or bet... that is tough and a judgement call. But for me, would say that if I'm not more than 60% or so sure my hand is going to hold up... I often check/call. (in hand #1, it completes a straight draw and an overcard... so am I 60% sure I'm good? With two oppoenents... not really. So as I said, I c/c. With one oppoenent it would be close)

And keep in mind, part of the thinking is that you can often gain more value from inducing a bluff from a weaker hand than you can hoping a weaker hand will call your bet.

Playing LAGG will ensure you don't miss a bet... true enough. But to be honest I don't give a damn about missing a bet. I give a damn about maximizing my EV. If you can accurately estimate your chances of winning, it is better to let your possible EV guide your decision.

If I accurately estimate that I'm 40% to win the pot on the river heads up (or 30% in a 3-handed pot), then having to contribute any extra bets lowers your EV. End of story (I'm sure you can agree with that)

Now, if you are arguing the odds of winning the pot on the river, then we have a debate.

That is what will determine your profits or losses in these situations and something that I'm still trying to get better at (as I'm sure everyone always is...) I would think we need at least 50% chance to winto bet out as we figure both opponents will rarely call, and occationally we will get raises. So, our river round implied pot odds are probably about 1:1. I like to be a little more sure just to make sure I'm on the +EV side of things. So, as I sad before, I would want about 60% to bet. And as I said before, with two players and that board, I don't think we are there. I would think we are more like 40% or so to win. So, I see no value in betting.

FYI... If I had position and was checked to, I would bet that first hand... you don't have the extra EV of a possible induced bluff, and that card is no longer very scary when it is checked. So I would bet the river with position and puke if he raises....

10-25-2006 03:57 AM #1
sarbox68 View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Sep 2006 Posts 1,113 Location wondering where the 3 extra chairs at my 6max table came from	"P" is for "Pair" ... and the seemingly "pussy" way I'm playing somo of these hands. Focused in on my Pair play tonight, and came to some conclusions. 1) I am NOT comfortable playing these, so I believe I end up playing them too cautiously. I pretty much see Overpairs, two pairs, sets, etc. around every corner. One hand in particular I folded out of a 15BB pot for 1BB on the turn 'cause I was CONVINCED there be monsters --- and I was holding best hand by the river. I find myself checking on the River because I'm afraid of getting Raised and having to give up an extra BB if I lose the hand, which has me passing on the extra BB when I win. Blah, blah blah..... All in all, too cautious... 2) Since most of my playable hands end up in some kind of TPTK or MP situation, I THINK this may be a cause of a big chunk of my leak, as this translates into a lot of hands. So, to facilitate the ass kicking, here's the following hands for your viewing pleasure..... Hand 1: Poker Room skin Limit Holdem Ring game Limit: $1/$2 9 players Converter Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is MP2 with 9 9 3 folds, Hero raises, 2 folds, Button calls (3.5:2), SB calls (5.5:1.5), BB calls (7:1). Flop: 8 7 4 (8SB, 4 players) SB checks, BB bets, Hero calls (9:1), Button calls (10:1), SB folds. Turn: 3 (5.5BB, 3 players) BB bets, Hero calls (6.5:1), Button calls (7.5:1). River: J (8.5BB, 3 players) BB bets, Hero calls (9.5:1), Button calls (10.5:1). Results: Final pot: 11.5BB Hand 2: Poker Room skin Limit Holdem Ring game Limit: $1/$2 10 players Converter Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is UTG with K K Hero raises, UTG+1 calls (3.5:2), 6 folds, SB calls (5.5:1.5), BB folds. Flop: A 8 T (7SB, 3 players) SB bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 calls (10:2), SB calls (12:1). Turn: 8 (6.5BB, 3 players) SB checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls (7.5:1), SB calls (8.5:1). River: J (9.5BB, 3 players) SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 checks. Results: Final pot: 9.5BB Hand 3: Poker Room skin Limit Holdem Ring game Limit: $1/$2 10 players Converter Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is MP2 with 9 9 UTG folds, UTG+1 calls (1.5:1), 2 folds, Hero raises, MP3 folds, CO 3-bets, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls (7.5:2), Hero calls (9.5:1). Flop: 3 6 4 (10.5SB, 3 players) UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, CO raises, UTG+1 calls (13.5:2), Hero calls (15.5:1). Turn: 8 (8.25BB, 3 players) UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, CO bets, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls (9.25:1). River: 4 (10.25BB, 2 players) Hero checks, CO checks. Results: Final pot: 10.25BB Hand 4: Poker Room skin Limit Holdem Ring game Limit: $1/$2 10 players Converter Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is MP3 with A K 4 folds, MP2 calls (1.5:1), Hero raises, CO folds, Button calls (4.5:2), SB folds, BB calls (6.5:1), MP2 calls (7.5:1). Flop: K 6 Q (8.5SB, 4 players) BB checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, Button calls (9.5:1), 2 folds. Turn: 7 (5.25BB, 2 players) Hero bets, Button calls (6.25:1). River: 8 (7.25BB, 2 players) Hero bets, Button raises, Hero calls (10.25:1). Results: Final pot: 11.25BB Hand 5: Poker Room skin Limit Holdem Ring game Limit: $1/$2 9 players Converter Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is SB with Q K UTG folds, UTG+1 calls (1.5:1), MP1 folds, MP2 calls (2.5:1), 2 folds, Button calls (3.5:1), Hero calls (4.5:0.5), BB checks. Flop: 4 K 5 (5SB, 5 players) Hero checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, Button bets, Hero raises, BB folds, UTG+1 calls (8:2), MP2 folds, Button 3-bets, Hero calls (12:1), UTG+1 calls (13:1). Turn: 3 (7BB, 3 players) Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, Button bets, Hero folds, UTG+1 calls (8:1). River: 3 (9BB, 2 players) UTG+1 checks, Button bets, UTG+1 folds. Uncalled bets: 1BB returned to Button. Results: Final pot: 9BB Hand 6: (my freakin' masterpiece......) Poker Room skin Limit Holdem Ring game Limit: $1/$2 9 players Converter Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is BB with T T UTG folds, UTG+1 calls (1.5:1), MP1, folds, MP2 (poster) checks, 4 folds, 4 folds, Hero raises, UTG+1 3-bets, MP2 calls (4.5:3), Hero calls (7.5:1). Flop: 9 3 7 (9.5SB, 3 players) Hero bets, UTG+1 calls (10.5:1), MP2 raises, Hero 3-bets, UTG+1 calls (15.5:2), MP2 caps, Hero calls (19.5:1), UTG+1 calls (20.5:1). Turn: K (10.75BB, 3 players) Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 bets, Hero folds, UTG+1 calls (11.75:1). River: 6 (12.75BB, 2 players) UTG+1 checks, MP2 bets, UTG+1 calls (13.75:1). Results: Final pot: 14.75BB There are more, but that is all. Any and all feedback appreciated!

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10-25-2006 04:49 AM #2
Nehmer View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Oct 2004 Posts 671 Location Decatur, IL	Hand 1: This is a must must must raise on the flop. I don't really know what you are afraid of here and you are presented a perfect chance to make Button and SB either call 2 cold or fold. Hand 2: Really depends a lot on your read of SB. Some people I just throw away my kings to the donk on the flop. Some people I play it the same way you did. Depending on your read of UTG+1 calling 2 bets cold on the flop, it probably makes a turn check/fold the right play too. Hand 3: I probably bet into CO again on the turn. It is likely that he only has AK/AQ and is going to check the turn/river for a cheap showdown. If he raises the turn again, I will fold if he leans on the passive side of play or call down if he is at all aggressive or known to make the occasional maniacish play. Hand 4: looks good. Hand 5: I don't like the turn fold. The guy didn't raise preflop from the button which probably means you aren't up against AK. The other hands we are most worried about are 44 and 55. I just don't often see people 3-bet sets on the flop on relatively safe boards. Usually they would call your flop raise and then raise you back on the turn. So I'm calling down and hoping he's an idiot with KJ/KT or something else stupid. Hand 6: Ok, this is a really wierd hand. UTG+1 limp/3-bets you preflop. MP2 posts, calls the 3-bet and then goes crazy on the flop with UTG+1 calling along all the way. Since they are both playing stupidly, I don't even wanna try and guess their hands, but MP2 looks like a flopped set or flush/straight draw to me. UTG+1 could have about anything after he doesn't raise the flop. I'd guess one of them has you beat and also fold the turn, but I really don't see plays like this much...

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10-25-2006 07:05 AM #3
bigspenda73 View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Jul 2006 Posts 13,453 Location Pwnsylvania	All I can say is NIT Only advice I can give you is that there is nooo room for caution in LHE. It's the reason I play limit over NL, I really just don't have what it takes to play NL well over the long run. The risk of losing that 1 extra BB should not scare you at all, in fact, it should be comforting that you can never really be put to that huge of a decision.

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10-25-2006 07:16 AM #4
sarbox68 View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Sep 2006 Posts 1,113 Location wondering where the 3 extra chairs at my 6max table came from	Great point, Big... So in the spirit of that, I'm making the following "3rd week of October" poker resolutions... 1) I will not fold any pot greater than 8BB for a 1BB on the river if I have at least TPTK 2) I will bet aggressively on 4-flush and OE straight draws from the flop for as long as I have at least 2 opps 3) I will not fold any pot greater than 8BB for a 1BB on the river if I have at least TPTK 4) I will trust the pot odds. If they say it's right to bet on the turn or river, I will AT MINIMUM call a bet to get to the SD as cheaply as possible and finally 5... 5) I will not fold any pot greater than 8BB for a 1BB on the river if I have at least TPTK That's at least a start....... I'll keep you all posted on how it goes, and I can't thank you enough for providing the gratis feedback!

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10-25-2006 02:58 PM #5
kyc12 View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Jul 2006 Posts 90	Some comments: 1) Raise the flop. You probably have the best hand, sometimes you may not, but what a raise do is to give bad odds for the people yet to act to call. Say someone has A7. He has the odds to call one SB, but not for 2 and you gain a lot of value by raising. 2) I'm not sure about the flop raise. This flop is bad for you KK. The Ace hit, and there are flushdraw and str8 draws out there. If SB bets anything maybe your raise is fine, but with everyone calling I am pretty sure at least one of them have you beat. Definitely not betting the turn as played. As you see here, you need to consider the flop as well as your hand. KK is stronger than 99, but given the flop and action your 99 should be good a higher % of time than your KK. I don't have much time, so I'll post short comments for the rest: 3) c/r the flop. If CO 3bet he probably have a bigger pair. 4) Happens to all of us. 5) I'm not ready to fold top pair second best kicker here... even if someone has 2pair, you have more outs than you think... 6) Masterpiece? Maybe you just run into a maniac? If you don't have a read turn fold if fine IMO.... and if you don't use a HUD, GET ONE!!

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10-26-2006 05:29 AM #6
Ragnar4 View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Sep 2005 Posts 3,195 Location Billings, Montana	Hand one: Confront, confront, confront. Be willing to bet out, and raise when you have top pair, especially with a PP. ESPECIALLY since you raised going into the flop. (which bye the way, I don't like all the time with 99. Switch it up... sometimes aggresive, sometimes passive... it plays well both ways.) Hands that may call your raise, 56 you're destroyed... or 9T OESD that completes on the River may not be willing to get into it behind a re-raise. Sets will pop you back for a cap on the flop. By being willing to be aggressive on the flop, you gain tons of info on how your opponents react. Say you 3-bet on the flop, and he just calls... Thats different info than if you 3-bet and he caps. Depends on the player, but that's the info you're looking for. Hand 2. When I'm playing. And a flop like that comes when I have KK or QQ. I try to make a decision right there, and bet and raise like I have the best hand all the way down. If I was wrong, oh well, if not.... they think I'm a genious. Here's the best part. Say someone has A2 and you push em out... you won! hooray! Hand 3. Ugh. I've seen people play AK like that in that kidn of a situation... But he prolly had something like TT, or better. You had a high pair all the way down... show it down as cheaply as possible if you think there's a chance he's bluffing. Hand 4. yup.. standard. Hand 5. Your fold was one hell of a tough laydown. But remember, if you up against say... TPTK and 2 pair there. You're pretty good odds to catch back up. With 2 other players that is. Hand 6. Your masterpiece as in.. you folded and had the best hand after all the action. I only have one thing to say to you... You know How I've been jumping up and down and saying use the flop to bet, bet, bet? That's what he did, and you folded because you were convinced he had a better hand.
	The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which unskilled individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly rating their ability much higher than average. This bias is attributed to a metacognitive inability of the unskilled to recognize their mistakes
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10-26-2006 06:01 AM #7
Anosmic View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Jan 2006 Posts 1,132 Location Sweden	Originally Posted by sarbox68 Great point, Big... So in the spirit of that, I'm making the following "3rd week of October" poker resolutions... 1) I will not fold any pot greater than 8BB for a 1BB on the river unless I'm >90% sure I'm beat. FYP. That's what you have to bear in mind here. If the pot is 9BB and you have to put in just one more bet then he only has to be bluffing/calling down with crap ONCE in ten and it's -EV to fold.
	Blah blah Op Blah blah Faith in Jesus Christ is +EV. That is all.
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10-30-2006 04:05 PM #8
NWNewell View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Aug 2006 Posts 301 Location Kennedy Space Center, FL	Originally Posted by bigspenda73 All I can say is NIT Only advice I can give you is that there is nooo room for caution in LHE. It's the reason I play limit over NL, I really just don't have what it takes to play NL well over the long run. The risk of losing that 1 extra BB should not scare you at all, in fact, it should be comforting that you can never really be put to that huge of a decision. I will respectfully disagree with part of this post. Let's think about this for a second. A respectable win rate over the long run is what.... 1 or BB per 100 hands? A good player might bring in 2-3BB per 100hands? So, if you carelessly give an extra 1 or 2 BB per hour, you are going from a winning player to a losing player (or at very least crippling your win rate). So, yes.... unnessicarily risking 1 extra BB worries me. However, with that said.... as Big said, you should not be too cautious in limit when you think you've got the edge. Afterall, if you are wrong, you are not risking your whole stack... it is only one big bet. Now, these two previous paragraphs might seem contraditory. So, using your Hand #1, let me try to explain: Big is right, you should play your 99 agressively as you had no real good reason to believe you were beat up to the river (as Big said, play agressively, not cautiously). However, on the river I don't like betting. I would much rather check/call out of position. Betting is unessecary (and possibly reckless) agression (maybe more careless than reckless). And here is why. By betting out, you can easily be raised costing you an extra bet to showdown, AND you will most likely chace out anyone that can't beat your 99 (maybe someone who paired their 8 will call). So, your bet is not really earning you much value. Not much reward for the risk. With this sort-of-scare card (possible straight and an over), I would much rather check/call 1bet. This will give someone else the opportunity to bluff at it, and you can see if anyone will raise. If there is a bet and raise, you can safely get out of the way. So, with this check, you can avoid giving up an extra bet and increase your EV by picking off possible bluffs or when people bet a weaker hand because they think you missed a draw, all for the same price as betting out. Yes, play aggresively (not caustiously).... but look for ways to maximize your EV and avoid giving up extra bets when the risk does not return much reward. I think a river bet falls in to the risk>reward catagory with this this OOP situation. Hand 2: I bet the river. You were good on the turn, you are most likely good on the river. Hand 3: I 3-bet the flop and try to define where I'm at on the cheap streets. If he didn't raise preflop with AK or something like that, then he is most likely not going to cap with it. If he caps, you are probably beat. Hand 4: The flush scares me... I would probably check/call or bet/fold. I'm probably not calling a raise on the river as very, very few players will raise bluff the river and combine that with the fact that the flushdraw makes too much sense. I probably c/c this river out of position for similar reasons as hand #1. Hand 5: I'm not c/r this hand. I'm betting out. And if someone wants to raise me, I'm 3-betting to put him to the test. If he caps, then he probably has two pair or trips, if he only calls, he probably has KJ or something like that and doesn't give the SB much credit for a good hand. I think he would have raised preflop with AK. Be agressive, take the lead, and define your hand on the cheap streets. Hand 6: Limp/Raise preflop is usually a huge sign of AA (maybe KK or QQ). Not sure why UTG+1 called down afterwards. But with the Limp/Raise and all the action from MP2 on the flop, I don't think our TT is any good. I might fold to the flop cap. And I'm thinking that at best, MP2 is pumping the flush draw and UTG+1 has tied himself to a solid pocket pair 99+. I think we are tyically worse off than that, and even during the rare times that we aren't, their draws will come in often enough... I probably give up on the flop... I don't think we are winning this hand often enough to show down (especially when there could be more raising out of those two). Now, I don't really care about he King. By checking the the turn after all that action, both you and UTG+1 are saying you don't have the King and and pair of kings beat you (or you could be slow playing KKK, but that is very unlikely). With that in mind, a bet from a player that was checked to on the turn with position doesn't convince me of much. If you think your TT's are good on the flop, they are almost as good on the turn. But with all that action and the limp/raise preflop, I'm worried about the TT's on the flop. Tough... [quote="Anosmic That's what you have to bear in mind here. If the pot is 9BB and you have to put in just one more bet then he only has to be bluffing/calling down with crap ONCE in ten and it's -EV to fold.[/quote] It's ZERO EV to fold, not -EV. It is always ZERO EV to fold... you just can't win anything either.
	My "Operation Come Back" Thread: Interupted.
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11-01-2006 06:28 AM #9
bigspenda73 View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Jul 2006 Posts 13,453 Location Pwnsylvania	Originally Posted by NWNewell I will respectfully disagree with part of this post. Let's think about this for a second. A respectable win rate over the long run is what.... 1 or BB per 100 hands? A good player might bring in 2-3BB per 100hands? So, if you carelessly give an extra 1 or 2 BB per hour, you are going from a winning player to a losing player (or at very least crippling your win rate). So, yes.... unnessicarily risking 1 extra BB worries me. Newell, you assume each time you risk this BB you will lose it, we all know that is not the case, there is no certainty in this game, none at all. Geez, the best quote I've read in a long time is: "It is ZERO EV to fold" Now, Im not advocating being a calling station, but if you play weak/tight you are not going anywhere. I think in limit the best strategy is LAGGY to the fullest, it always guarantees you do not miss a bet. I have a question for you Newell: what pisses you off more, missing a river bet or calling a bet into a pot you know you will most likely not win?

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11-01-2006 08:26 PM #10
NWNewell View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Aug 2006 Posts 301 Location Kennedy Space Center, FL	Originally Posted by bigspenda73 I have a question for you Newell: what pisses you off more, missing a river bet or calling a bet into a pot you know you will most likely not win? I'm not assuming we will lose everytime we risk one bet. But I don't always like risking one bet to gain one bet if I most likely will not win (if you are are less than 50% sure, then it is negative EV to risk one bet for one bet... bettor to try to show down as cheap as possible, right?). But even more so... if you are only alittle over 50% sure you will win the pot, then there is a fair amount of the time that your opponent will fold (so you are rising one bet for effectively less then one bet of reward). And if you are a little less than 50% sure you are going to win the pot, there will be many times that you will be raised on the river (risking more than one bet for the possibility of one bet of reaward). And THAT is what pisses me off the most. So, if it seems close or questionable that I will win, I like to check/call, and not risk being two bet. Now how questionable or close it is to c/c or bet... that is tough and a judgement call. But for me, would say that if I'm not more than 60% or so sure my hand is going to hold up... I often check/call. (in hand #1, it completes a straight draw and an overcard... so am I 60% sure I'm good? With two oppoenents... not really. So as I said, I c/c. With one oppoenent it would be close) And keep in mind, part of the thinking is that you can often gain more value from inducing a bluff from a weaker hand than you can hoping a weaker hand will call your bet. Playing LAGG will ensure you don't miss a bet... true enough. But to be honest I don't give a damn about missing a bet. I give a damn about maximizing my EV. If you can accurately estimate your chances of winning, it is better to let your possible EV guide your decision. If I accurately estimate that I'm 40% to win the pot on the river heads up (or 30% in a 3-handed pot), then having to contribute any extra bets lowers your EV. End of story (I'm sure you can agree with that) Now, if you are arguing the odds of winning the pot on the river, then we have a debate. That is what will determine your profits or losses in these situations and something that I'm still trying to get better at (as I'm sure everyone always is...) I would think we need at least 50% chance to winto bet out as we figure both opponents will rarely call, and occationally we will get raises. So, our river round implied pot odds are probably about 1:1. I like to be a little more sure just to make sure I'm on the +EV side of things. So, as I sad before, I would want about 60% to bet. And as I said before, with two players and that board, I don't think we are there. I would think we are more like 40% or so to win. So, I see no value in betting. FYI... If I had position and was checked to, I would bet that first hand... you don't have the extra EV of a possible induced bluff, and that card is no longer very scary when it is checked. So I would bet the river with position and puke if he raises....
	My "Operation Come Back" Thread: Interupted.
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