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Overcards and pot odds

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Jay67s

03-28-2005, 04:48 PM Post subject: Overcards and pot odds

#1 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Feb 2005

Location: West Virginia

Posts: 241

Let me set up a situation.

You are in EP with AQo, you raise you get 2 callers

both have 25 to 30ish VP$P

flop comes 974 rainbow

lets call it 3 BB's in the pot

If you bet out and get called by both players, would you check/fold the turn, if you don't hit the turn.

4.5 BB's in the pot now

Is this a correct approach? Is so, then did you have enough pot odds to make the bet on the flop? If you are only planning on seeing one card, should you be looking to get 6.83 to 1 pot odds?

If you miss the turn card, there probably is not going to be enough money in the pot to justify the turn bet?

did I explain clearly? --- am I off base? --- other things to consider?

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Rondavu

03-28-2005, 05:23 PM

#2 (permalink)

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Posts: 3,053

To me you raise for value preflop. When it comes to whether you bet out or not postflop, that has a lot to do with your table image. If your known as an over aggressive player, someone that pinpointed this fact is going to reraise you with a pocket pair. I know I would.

Know your players. Don't be too predictable. The other players read on you has everything to do with how you play this hand. Have you bet out without a pair and two overs recently and then folded on 4th or 5th street? Good players will notice this stuff. You raised preflop. You have overs. They know it. They will keep you honest. I guarantee it.

When the gig is up, and people stop respecting those raises, you can only break the cycle of disrespect by raising scraps preflop in early position, and when you hit a garbage flop lead out. You'll sting someone who thinks they know you, and gain respect for next time you want to bet out with overs that didn't hit.

Ultimately by leading out the betting with AQo and a rag flop, your trying to get one or two opponents to just give up and fold. You want any opponents in the hand to think they have to have at least top pair to stay. When you got caught bluffing recently however, they'll stay in on second or even third pair!

If your not mixing it up, your goose is cooked bro. Time to switch gears.

So to answer your question, this has less to do with pot odds, and more to do with psychology. I guess you could put this in the other things to consider category. Personally, I try not to get too caught up in pot odds. If you feel your beat, you stop paying the pot unless the pot odds are overwhelmingly impossible to fold against. You don't want to get caught up in a cycle of crying calls that are justified by pot odds, because that's when you pay solid players off.

It's not what's inside that counts. Have you seen what's inside?
Internal organs. And they're getting uglier by the minute.

Chicago_Kid

03-28-2005, 05:55 PM Post subject: Re: Overcards and pot odds

#3 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Jay67s

If you bet out and get called by both players, would you check/fold the turn, if you don't hit the turn.

4.5 BB's in the pot now

Is this a correct approach?

I would want to know your table image. Have you taken down some big pots previously? Have you played tight enough to be noticed?

Also, knowing what these guys have played against your raises before would help. Have these guys shown down K9 before? Chances are one has a pocket pair, and the other has two overs, like AT, or KJ.

If I had a tight table image and these guys have backed off before, I might likely fire again. If these guys call, call, call...I'd check the turn.

"Been gone so long, forgot how to poker"

gabe

03-28-2005, 06:27 PM

#4 (permalink)

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What would they be calling the flop bet with? A straight draw? Overcards? If a blank comes and you don't think they have a made hand, bet again. But that might be too read-intensive and you are probably better off check-calling then folding the river unimproved.

Rondavu

03-28-2005, 08:51 PM

#5 (permalink)

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Your only gonna get away with so many steal pots before someone looks you up. Players turn into calling stations when you piss them off with too many buy attempts.

Can you bet out here? Only if you haven't lately bet out on rags when you raised preflop.

If you've been honest, then try to steal. a pot with two callers is a good pot to attempt it. If you bet out, and they both call you, then check the turn unless you gather outs or match a hole card. Fold to any bet unimproved, unless you can surely put the bettor on a draw. Even then make sure you have an ace or king in hand for showdown. What do pot odds matter if your gonna lose?

It's not what's inside that counts. Have you seen what's inside?
Internal organs. And they're getting uglier by the minute.

Room

03-29-2005, 12:05 AM

#6 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Mar 2005

Posts: 197

In EP, you're pretty much in trouble when you miss. Especially on a ragged, rainbow flop. A smart player might reraise you on the flop on a pure steal and take it from you. If they just call the flop, when you miss, do you lead the turn? check/call? check/fold? It's hard to play these hands in EP when you miss. honestly, if its 3BB to the flop, you bet and get 2 callers to the turn, someone has something better than you most likely. im folding this relatively small pot. In regards to your odds question, as the others have pointed out, its about image. If you are passive on every flop you miss, people will know exactly what youre holding every time you play a hand. Odds are an important part of profitable play, but there are other equally important factors that you must consider as well.

ChezJ

03-29-2005, 04:05 AM

#7 (permalink)

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we just had a similar discussion in the AKo thread. in EP i'm check-calling a ragged flop. betting out here exposes yourself to a raise which ruins your pot odds. as long as one person bets, you do have the 7:1 you need to take off one more card. but if it's 2 bets to go by the time the action comes back to you, you must let go of the hand. you no longer have the odds and you are clearly behind. they are actually doing you a favor by letting you fold cheaply.

that's the technical side. rondavu's comments on the psychological side of the game are spot on. so many people seem to think you have to automatically follow up your pre flop raise with aggression on the flop even if you whiff it. i think that's folly in EP, and an invitation to get checkraised in LP.

ChezJ

DaNutsInYoEye

03-29-2005, 06:19 AM

#8 (permalink)

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Quote:

other things to consider?

Are all "6" of your outs clean? With the 974 rainbow flop you used as an example, what happens if someone has A9 (a set, etc)? If an A comes on the turn you're more than likely going to commit yourself to showdown with the second best hand.

Like others have mentioned, being first to act with not one, but two others behind you puts you at a serious disadvantage. HU I would probably bet out, but again it depends on my opponent and their image of me. Overcards alone are a weak draw. Remember that and play accordingly.

TheXianti: (Triptanes) why are you not a thinking person?

Rondavu

03-29-2005, 01:22 PM

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The thing you have to remember when you raise preflop EP and get a couple callers, is that any lead bet you make postflop will mean one of two things to them... either you have a high pocket pair, or this hand is a turn river coin flip for all three of you, and your challenging them to remain on the assumption of the latter. I may be missing something, but that seems like the general idea.

The problem is a lot of people stay in for preflop raises on a flush expedition with Ax or Kx suited, and one of those rags might match their x. Like DaNutsInYoEye said, you could pop a K or A and be up against two pair now.

Your better off checking when you miss in EP. You still have a lot of options. If the last act is known to be aggressive (aggressive types often get into a hand with sub par cards because they like being last act), then you can wait for him to bet and check raise him if you believe he missed. The other guy will probably fold giving you isolation on an overaggressive player who tried buying the pot. The reason the other guy folds is that your now representing high pocket pair much better than a lead out bet could ever accomplish.

Now instead of being the overaggressive victim, you get to be the one taking advantage of someone else who is being overaggressive. You eliminate one more player who may have hit the turn or river, and give yourself better chance of taking down the pot. Make sure you have an ace or king in hand for this maneuver, because often by catching an overaggressive trying to buy it, they'll turn into a calling station, and you want A or K for showdown. Hopefully they just fold when you lead out on the turn. Just watch out for coordinated boards, because they may have bet a draw on the flop.

More likely, in an honest hand you'll find yourself checking around and seeing the turn, at which time whoever caught a draw or a match will take control of the wheel.

The problem with being overaggressive has always been that your wrestling control of the hand from someone else that deserves to be in control since they're currently ahead. If they know what they're doing, they'll recognize they're ahead and raise you to regain control of a hand which rightfully belongs to them at the moment.

That's why overaggressive is a tell. If you lead out a bet in this situation all the time, and I have a mid pocket pair which missed the set, I'm raising you. I know I'm ahead, and I don't appreciate you acting like this is your hand when it's currently mine. That's basically it, though if I'm not considering something, please feel free to ad lib.

It's not what's inside that counts. Have you seen what's inside?
Internal organs. And they're getting uglier by the minute.

Chicago_Kid

03-29-2005, 04:18 PM

#10 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Rondavu

Agreed. If you make a habit of betting out on every flop from EP when you miss, people will start calling you down or re-raising with middle pairs and such. I try to mix in a "tricky check"...give it a little pause. If it checks around to late position who bets, sometimes I C/R and knock out the rest of the field, if they've folded before. In weak games, you'd be amazed how many pots this takes down or buys me more outs on later streets.

"Been gone so long, forgot how to poker"

Rondavu

03-29-2005, 04:46 PM

#11 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Chicago_Kid

I try to mix in a "tricky check"...give it a little pause.

This is a very effective practice. Instachecks get no respect. Pause checks keep people honest. It can buy you free cards often.

It's not what's inside that counts. Have you seen what's inside?
Internal organs. And they're getting uglier by the minute.

ChezJ

03-29-2005, 08:29 PM

#12 (permalink)

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Location: Washington, D.C.

Posts: 1,456

really good discussion. i'm learning some new stuff.

in a heads up situation, i will often bet out from EP on a ragged flop on the theory that my ace high is the best hand. if proven otherwise, i'll pray for a good turn and check-fold there unimproved.

ChezJ

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