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Overanalyzing Aggression

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lonnie

11-11-2004, 09:02 AM Post subject: Overanalyzing Aggression

#1 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Aug 2004

Posts: 923

Would like to hear some input on this discussion of aggression:

My agg numbers in PT:

Flop: 2.27
Turn: 1.77
River: 1.91

I am playing flops relatively aggressively while the bets are cheap. Slow down on the turn, usually along with the rest of the table. Higher aggression numbers on the river once I've determined my hand is good.

I am starting to think there may be more information in these agg numbers than I first suspected.

On the flop:
I am betting/raising alot to push out the weaker hands and to find out where you are in relation to your opps.
Many times I am doing this in somewhat marginal situations, ie top pair, decent kicker, OESD, flush draws, etc.

1. By getting more money in the pot, are you setting yourself up for marginal/bad/value calls on the turn and river? Each check/bet/raise/fold decision must be made independently on each street, but can aggressive play in thin EV situations on the flop lead to a snowball/avalanche effect on later streets?

On the turn:
2. Are players with large differences in their flop and turn agg numbers consistently giving their opponents too much information to work with? My agg difference between flop and turn is .5, which is probably very noticeable during game action.

On the river:
I don't think agg numbers here are very significant. I would expect river agg numbers to be fairly similar among good players.

3. Do the best players have flop and turn agg numbers that are very close? I think having a consistent amount of aggression between flop and turn may be a good thing.

I also think, for now, that the worst play does not come on the turn or river. The worst mistakes can be made on the flop, where you have the opportunity to force yourself to make bad value plays later in the hand. Maybe super aggressive flop play = more crying calls on the river.

If anyone else cares to post their agg numbers I would appreciate it.

This is something I've been thinking about all day. I hope it makes sense. I'm having kind of a hard time getting a handle on it. Hopefully the answer will be as clear cut as a VP$IP question would be.

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HeavyP

11-11-2004, 09:22 AM

#2 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Sep 2004

Posts: 187

My aggression numbers through just over 4k hands at .5/1 at stars. I also play 6max so I don't know if that will effect it.

Flop: 1.81
Turn: 1.60
River: 1.84

fishstick

11-11-2004, 09:10 PM

#3 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Mar 2004

Location: Carlsbad, CA

Posts: 1,405

for all levels of limit that i have in PT:

1789 hands

flop 2.65
turn 2.87
river 2.72

my numbers being so close, i'm guessing that i'm a believer in "the best hand on the flop usually is the winner."

the flop seems to be the critical choice for me (as opposed to the turn) in playing/staying in the hand.

thoughts?

i hate what i have become to escape what i hated being...

lonnie

11-11-2004, 09:23 PM

#4 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Aug 2004

Posts: 923

Quote:

1789 hands

flop 2.65
turn 2.87
river 2.72

Those numbers are close. I would think this is an optimum situation, but I'm not sure yet. My guess is that if your flop agg is substantially higher than your turn agg, you are overplaying your flops.

What are your W$WSF and W$@SD?

Toasty

11-11-2004, 09:35 PM

#5 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Apr 2004

Location: England UK

Posts: 1,522

those numbers are pretty far away, Fishstick i'm impressed you a pretty mean SOB

Poker is all about the long long long long long long long term . . .
Barney's back . . . back again . . .

fishstick

11-11-2004, 11:22 PM

#6 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Mar 2004

Location: Carlsbad, CA

Posts: 1,405

Quote:

Originally Posted by lhoney2

Quote:

1789 hands

flop 2.65
turn 2.87
river 2.72

W$WSF 27.81
W$@SD 55.88
pf Raise % 7.27
overall agg 1.52

toasty - you call me an SOB and lhoney calls me a bully? i'm just trying to get along!

good to hear from you - i've missed the clowns and funny words: "sorry guvner, i got hit in the head with a spanner while i was in the loo."

back to the discussion - toasty (and fnord) - what are your aggression numbers on non-6 max tables? also, interpretations?

i hate what i have become to escape what i hated being...

Fnord

11-12-2004, 11:45 AM

#7 (permalink)

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Join Date: Dec 2003

Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck

Posts: 19,333

Fnord is an unknown quantity at this point

From my Empire account:

735 hands of 2/4

f 3.07
t 2.50
r 1.60

Lately I've dialed my full ring aggression a little more towards value, but I've also been calling down a little less...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

Fnord

11-12-2004, 11:50 AM Post subject: Re: Overanalyzing Aggression

#8 (permalink)

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Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck

Posts: 19,333

Quote:

Originally Posted by lhoney2

1. By getting more money in the pot, are you setting yourself up for marginal/bad/value calls on the turn and river? Each check/bet/raise/fold decision must be made independently on each street, but can aggressive play in thin EV situations on the flop lead to a snowball/avalanche effect on later streets?

On the turn:

That's a risk, but since I'm tighter than my opposition I tend to flop better. By betting out I'm concealing my hand (did I hit or miss or have a pocket pair?) and gaining information by seeing how my opponents respond.

Quote:

Originally Posted by lhoney2

On the river:
I don't think agg numbers here are very significant. I would expect river agg numbers to be fairly similar among good players.

Meh, there are a lot of factors that feed into this. If you're playing tricky/aggressive players more often you will run a more passive river as you can't thin value bet (c/r threat) and tend to call down over-played hands.

Quote:

Originally Posted by lhoney2

This is something I've been thinking about all day. I hope it makes sense. I'm having kind of a hard time getting a handle on it. Hopefully the answer will be as clear cut as a VP$IP question would be.

It's not.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

mike4066

11-12-2004, 06:20 PM

#9 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Dec 2003

Posts: 1,943

Either you guys are wimps or I can't find the brakes..

2.91 on the flop
3.46 on the turn
1.65 on the river

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...pic.php?t=3798

Seeing as I've been fighting with beging over aggressive i'll guess I don't know where the brakes are..

fishstick

11-12-2004, 06:27 PM

#10 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Mar 2004

Location: Carlsbad, CA

Posts: 1,405

Quote:

Originally Posted by mike4066

2.91 on the flop
3.46 on the turn
1.65 on the river

geez, mike. or should i say "raiseboy"!

i hate what i have become to escape what i hated being...

lonnie

11-12-2004, 06:57 PM

#11 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Aug 2004

Posts: 923

Mike forgot to tell you that he put tape over his "Call' button so he can't see it.

lonnie

11-12-2004, 07:19 PM

#12 (permalink)

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Join Date: Aug 2004

Posts: 923

Fnord- I've been waiting to see what you thought about points 2 and 3 specifically.

Quote:

On the turn:
2. Are players with large differences in their flop and turn agg numbers consistently giving their opponents too much information to work with? My agg difference between flop and turn is .5, which is probably very noticeable during game action.

Quote:

3. Do the best players have flop and turn agg numbers that are very close? I think having a consistent amount of aggression between flop and turn may be a good thing.

I also think, for now, that the worst play does not come on the turn or river. The worst mistakes can be made on the flop, where you have the opportunity to force yourself to make bad value plays later in the hand. Maybe super aggressive flop play = more crying calls on the river.

Fnord

11-12-2004, 07:24 PM

#13 (permalink)

Moderator

Join Date: Dec 2003

Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck

Posts: 19,333

I think you're trying to read too much out of these numbers. There are a lot of factors that go into them. Also, the more aggro your opponents are the more spots there are for calling and check/calling to keep them bluffing.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

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