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Mr_Pokah

11-11-2006, 01:17 PM Post subject: Outs

#1 (permalink)

Join Date: Nov 2006

Location: Stockholm, Sweden

Posts: 20

How many outs do you assign to my hand here?

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Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is Button with J

UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, CO calls, Hero calls, SB calls, BB checks.

Flop: 9

(6SB, 6 players)
SB checks, BB bets, UTG raises, UTG+1 calls, CO folds, Hero ...

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outphase

11-11-2006, 10:09 PM

#2 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Apr 2005

Posts: 949

7.
4 10s
~1.5 Js and Qs (discounted as they complete draws and can provide flush draws that aren't yours)
~1.5 for a backdoor flush

Quote:

Originally Posted by lambchopdc

Lets stop talking ABC poker and move on to D, E, and F.

pokerfanatic

11-12-2006, 12:15 AM

#3 (permalink)

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Join Date: Aug 2004

Location: 6max limit tables

Posts: 1,968

outphase how did you come to 1.5 of a BD draw and 1.5 for the 2OCs? I'm not seeing your logical thinking on that one...

4 outs for the GSD that's the obvious one

1 out for a BDFD, i think in SSH it's like 1.25 or something i use 1 out as easy math... 1.5 i guess i could see that but w/e

my issue is with your 1.5 for the 2OCs... sure you're right it could complete a draw for someone, however you have to remember TJ your Q is dead but your J is live, KJ your drawing dead, QT you Q is live, any hand with just a T in it your Q id live and hand with just a J in it your Q is live... there is only one case that both your cards are completely dominated thus 1.5 outs is too low, 2-3 out IMO is the correct number...
If you want to further discount it because of a long shot BDFD that's not in your suit that's being way to big a pussy... if a hand that only has a BDFD calls a bet on the flop then they are making a serious mistake unless the pot is ungodly huge… in the book theory of poker it states, “when your opponents make mistakes you gain, when you make mistakes your opponents gain” even if you lose the pot to a BDFD and that’s only thing he had you gain from that mistake because he will do it again unless you stupidly bitch at him for making the bad play…

so with that said you have about 7-8 outs in this hand... of course I got to my number with a different line of thinking but it comes to ABOUT the same over all idea...

just my 2cents... figured i would throw out some logic behind counting outs, though it's covered in i think every limit book i have read...

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NWNewell

11-13-2006, 02:19 AM

#4 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Aug 2006

Location: Kennedy Space Center, FL

Posts: 283

7, I agree... but for slightly different reasons.

4=gutshot
2=J&Q (discounted for being dominated or completing a straight for someone)
1=BDFD

pokerfanatic, yes.... SSHE assigns 1.5 for a backdoor flush draw. But I'm just not confortable with 1.5, especially without nut flush, for some reasone... can't really say why... expecpt that I guess I fear that it doesn't come in often enough... or more accurately put, you don't get paid off like you hope when it does (half the reason that I think it is so high in outs is because of the big payoff from people not believing the runner, runner). I think you need to take position into account on this one. With position you can raise and probably get paid off that extra bet when you hit. But without position, you are not usually going to be able to get that extra bet. So, maybe with position it might be more like 1.5, but without position it might be more like 1 out. But on the other hand, knowing that SSHE says to count 1.5 outs for a BDFD, I often make the call if I don't quit have the odds with my BDFD counted as 1 out. So, I'm probably around 1-1.25 outs for a BDFD.

Also, keep in mind that 1.5 is assigned to games are are loose/passive FR games with many players seeing the flop (>3) and many players going too far. So, in SHL, where you often only have 2-3 players seeing the flop and it usually getting heads up on later streets, 1.5 outs is probably a bit much for SHL. Just a thought...

And as far as the two overs... I think with all the players and the staight draw possibilities, that we definitely need to significant discount the outs. definitely to less than 3 with the way the action has played out. But 1.5 seems like a bit much. You think that we will hit our overs and still loose 75% of the time? I'm going to guess that we will win probably about 1/3 of the time and assign the overs 2 outs. However, like I said, the way the action has gone... I'm unsure. Those two limping in preflop, and then bet and raise the flop. What kind of hands would they do that with? JT? QT? And with all the players in the hand... Not sure about the overcard outs due to the action. I'm still probably going to esitmate about 2 outs, but I'm a little uncertain about it...

Don't know if that is right, but that is my two cents....

My "Operation Come Back" Thread: Interupted.

outphase

11-13-2006, 01:09 PM

#5 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Apr 2005

Posts: 949

i was drawing upon HEFAP, i did indeed probably get the numbers wrong as i haven't read it in a while. i didn't figure into how exactly which side of 1.5 each one had.

Quote:

Originally Posted by lambchopdc

Lets stop talking ABC poker and move on to D, E, and F.

pokerfanatic

11-13-2006, 03:00 PM

#6 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Aug 2004

Location: 6max limit tables

Posts: 1,968

Quote:

Originally Posted by outphase

i was drawing upon HEFAP, i did indeed probably get the numbers wrong as i haven't read it in a while. i didn't figure into how exactly which side of 1.5 each one had.

hehe i just figured i would though out some theory here and there, but we came up with same number in diff ways... not a huge deal...

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