Originally Posted by gutshot

I play .5/1 and 1/2 mostly. If I post in the CO and it's folded around I will raise any 2 cards (ala 2+2) and play it postflop.

I would imagine that might be a bit more tricky at 10/20.

Originally Posted by TylerK

In a normal blind steal situation here you are investing 1 bet to win 1.5. You have to be successful preflop more than 40% of the time to show a profit. (For now, completely disregard postflop.)

In a posting situation, you are investing one bet to win 2.5. You only need to take the blinds preflop more than about 28% of the time to show a profit.

Additionally, a random hand has almost 35% equity against a fairly tight range of blind defense hands.
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 35.7118 % 34.72% 01.00% { random }
Hand 2: 64.2882 % 63.29% 01.00% { TT+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

So let's say your steal attempt gets called 70% of the time. You'll still win a showdown postflop about 35% of the time, giving your preflop steal about a 30% chance to win preflop and about another 25% chance to win postflop.

Even with my conservative estimates, you're showing a slight profit.

Am I missing anything major here?

Originally Posted by TylerK

If you're stealing from outside the blinds it's 2 to win 1.5.

Originally Posted by Phyl

Edit: What kind of equity does 72o have against that blind defence range?

Originally Posted by TylerK

I'm dumb....luckily though, my criminal stupidity helps make my point.


Not hugely worse...
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 28.2050 % 27.86% 00.34% { 72o }
Hand 2: 71.7950 % 71.45% 00.34% { TT+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }