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One of the worst mistakes I've made in a long time....

  
 
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elipsesjeff
Old 12-18-2004, 06:39 AM     Post subject: One of the worst mistakes I've made in a long time.... #1 (permalink)  
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 It really sums up the night when I make this play.

Absolute Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6, A.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, CO calls, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (6 SB) J, A, 2 (6 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, CO bets, Button calls, SB folds, Hero raises, UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, CO calls, Button calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) J (3 players)
Hero bets, CO calls, Button calls.

River: (8.50 BB) Q (3 players)
Hero bets, CO calls, Button raises, Hero folds, CO calls.

Final Pot: 13.50 BB

Results in white below:
CO has 3s Ac (two pair, aces and jacks).
Button has 9h Qd (two pair, queens and jacks).
Outcome: CO wins 13.50 BB.

I think it was the combination of me having a losing day, me having an A with No kicker, and the paired Jacks on the board. Grrr....


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Old 12-18-2004, 08:04 AM #2 (permalink)  
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that really was horrible...

remember, 12.50BB pot, and it's 1BB for you to call, and expecting CO to call also, that's 14.5:1 odds.

translation...if you win this more than 6.4% of the time it's a profitable call.
 
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Nehmer
Old 12-18-2004, 01:24 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Is that really such a bad play? I don't know if I think Jeff does win that pot 6.5% of the time after the river raise. Any ace and any jack have him beat, what else would they be raising with on the river into 2 other people(one of whom has definately represented a strong hand)? I say that's a good fold and you just got unlucky that it was one of the 1/100 times that you have the win here.
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a500lbgorilla
Old 12-18-2004, 02:31 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
me having an A with No kicker
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nehmer
Any ace and any jack have him beat
Board : AJJQx

Hands: Hero A6, Villian Ax (less than J) Split pot.

The only ace kickers that play are J's and up.

Quote:
Originally Posted by hypermegachi
remember, 12.50BB pot, and it's 1BB for you to call, and expecting CO to call also, that's 14.5:1 odds.
He's got to assume that he's either splitting or losing a majority of the time, I can't think of any hands that lose to him that would make a river raise. So it's not nearly that bad.

-'rilla

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You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
 
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elipsesjeff
Old 12-18-2004, 03:50 PM #5 (permalink)  
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 I agree with hyper. The people on absolute are STUPID, literally. There could be 4 to a flush on the board, you're holding the Ace, and they'll river raise you with nothing. They have tendancies to just river raise to see if they can make you fold. Its happened so many times. I should have paid the 1 bb here.

I was afraid of someone having the jack because thats what I thought the guy had that he was betting with. Checked around to the button who bets usually has trash or nothing. And that river raise made me trigger happy, i didn't even think about calling.


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Old 12-18-2004, 03:59 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nehmer
I say that's a good fold and you just got unlucky that it was one of the 1/100 times that you have the win here.
expect jeff to win situations like this more than 6.4%
you are giving your opponents too much credit

Quote:
Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
He's got to assume that he's either splitting or losing a majority of the time, I can't think of any hands that lose to him that would make a river raise. So it's not nearly that bad.
splitting is better than nothing by folding.

and just as a side note, a major difference between limit and NL is you should feel HAPPY paying off the better hand. in NL, you screw up, you lose your stack. in limit, when you pay off the better hand, it's either because they out played you from the beginning, in which you need to learn from your mistakes. or they outdrew you, which is good because you'll want to add these people to your fish list and seek them out again another time.
 
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elipsesjeff
Old 12-18-2004, 04:23 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by "hyper'
and just as a side note, a major difference between limit and NL is you should feel HAPPY paying off the better hand. in NL, you screw up, you lose your stack. in limit, when you pay off the better hand, it's either because they out played you from the beginning, in which you need to learn from your mistakes. or they outdrew you, which is good because you'll want to add these people to your fish list and seek them out again another time.
Exactly hyper. I don't mind paying off the better hand. I'm either outplayed or outdrawn, both of which probably could have been avoided.

Here is another hand from the same table:

Absolute Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q, J.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button folds, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (6 SB) J, T, 6 (6 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG bets, UTG+1 folds, MP3 folds, CO calls, SB folds, Hero raises, UTG 3-bets, CO calls, Hero caps, UTG calls, CO calls.

Turn: (9 BB) 5 (3 players)
Hero bets, UTG calls, CO calls.

River: (12 BB) K (3 players)
Hero bets, UTG raises, CO folds, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 16 BB

Results in white below:
Hero has Qc Jd (one pair, jacks).
UTG has Kh Kc (three of a kind, kings).
Outcome: UTG wins 16 BB.


I was pwned from the beginning, but I had this guy thinking he was a gonner. I don't mind paying this guy off here, he didn't outplay me or outdraw me, I just outplayed myself. Hyper was watching this hand at the time and he thought I had a set.


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gabe
Old 12-18-2004, 11:35 PM #8 (permalink)  
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he doesn't raise with KK? i guess he saved you a bet.
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elipsesjeff
Old 12-18-2004, 11:42 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
he doesn't raise with KK? i guess he saved you a bet.
He thought I had him beat... I did too.


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elipsesjeff
Old 12-18-2004, 11:48 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hyper
and just as a side note, a major difference between limit and NL is you should feel HAPPY paying off the better hand. in NL, you screw up, you lose your stack. in limit, when you pay off the better hand, it's either because they out played you from the beginning, in which you need to learn from your mistakes. or they outdrew you, which is good because you'll want to add these people to your fish list and seek them out again another time.
I was doing some reading today and look what I found:

Quote:
Despite what many people think, paying off is the correct strategy. Some people call, but think that if they "played better" they could make the "correct" fold. Folding is wrong. Do not feel guilty about calling. Paying off is not a sucker play. It is part of the game. This is true in small stakes games because the pots are large, and many people play illogically. It is just as true in high stakes games where people play aggressively and frequently try to push you off hands. Consistently folding is the sucker play. Pay off with confidence.
-SSH, Pages 307-308.


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gabe
Old 12-19-2004, 04:25 AM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
he doesn't raise with KK? i guess he saved you a bet.
He thought I had him beat... I did too.
i mean preflop, he didnt raise KK
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elipsesjeff
Old 12-20-2004, 01:48 AM #12 (permalink)  
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 I have no idea why he didnt raise KK, this guy had a read on me though, or he was just really terrible. Check out this hand, same guy later that evening:

Absolute Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with A, 3.
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, Hero calls, Button raises, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (9 SB) J, 2, 5 (4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, Button bets, SB calls, UTG folds, Hero raises, Button calls, SB calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) 7 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, Button calls, SB folds.

River: (9.50 BB) 9 (2 players)
Hero bets, Button calls.

Final Pot: 11.50 BB

Results in white below:
Hero has As 3s (high card, ace).
Button has 8d 8h (one pair, eights).
Outcome: Button wins 11.50 BB.


This guy wouldn't give up his middle pocket pair for anything! I knew he would bet me on the flop and I was hoping the check raise would shake him by the turn or river. The only reason I bet on the river because I thought he would, I knew he didnt have anything!


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gabe
Old 12-20-2004, 04:07 AM #13 (permalink)  
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you say it was one of your worst mistakes, so how would you play it differently?

edit: nevermind, the subject is referring to the first hand, my mistake.
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