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Omaha FT good payout 4 left unsure...

  
 
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Alpine021
Old 12-08-2010, 01:29 PM     Post subject: Omaha FT good payout 4 left unsure... #1 (permalink)  
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Alpine021
PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha, 27.5 Tournament, 5000/10000 Blinds (4 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hey first Omaha hand I've posted so bear with me, lol. Anyway final 4 prize pool $3,700. Like $900 first $620 second or whatever etc..

So is this a call if I'm going for the win? Double pairs flop sets like 24% of the time plus double suited and I'm obviously up against AA or KK - also there is the dead money if the other guy folds. Suggestions welcome?

Any1 know the odds of flopping a set over 5 streets?

I've had some good wins and a fair few final tables just need a bit more experience and it's decisions like this that I'm unsure of. P.S. I appreciate my pairs aren't high but my M is 5 and I think it might be a good spot...

SB (t155388)
Hero (BB) (t74360)
UTG (t110316)
Button (t103936)

Hero's M: 4.96

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9, 7, 7, 9
1 fold, Button bets t24500, SB raises to t83500, Hero?
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drmcboy
Old 12-08-2010, 02:21 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 run some numbers - you're 34% vs AA** and top 5%, 41% vs just AA**,KK**. If you think the BU will almost always fold you could gamble. If not I think you should fold, you don't really have a great price, have already paid your BB and even though you're short doubling from 60k looks like it will put you in second. If you had your stack and every one else had 500k I'd go with it. It would be different if you had say really good KKxx and there was a chance SB would flip up a worse paired hand.

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PS I don't know what you mean by 'going for the win' - if you're saying you don't care about making the proper $EV play because winning has some other value then sure gamble.
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Alpine021
Old 12-09-2010, 08:20 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Alpine021
Hey,

Wow only 34% vs AA**? Thought it would be around 40.

Also probably should mention this is a turbo. So when I said going for the win I meant more a case
of blinds up soon to 6K / 12K (M 3.5) so even an orbit of no hands and I'm kinda in the dead zone.
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drmcboy
Old 12-09-2010, 05:35 PM #4 (permalink)  
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DrButtInski
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 that is 34% of a three way pot between

9977ds
top 5% hand
AA**

which is to say that you will have more or less exactly the equity you need for the play to break even in chip EV but not much more. But the stack you win 1/3 of the time will not be worth the stack you gave up the other 2/3.


I would rather take your chances that you can open some time in the next 3 hands or failing that gamble from the BB. the 60k stack may not look great but it will still take a big chunk from everyone else so you should still have some FE. And, someone else may go broke, they might fold your BB to you, you might pick up a hand.
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swiggidy
Old 12-10-2010, 01:23 AM #5 (permalink)  
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 I don't like calling off the stack, but haven't played many tournaments. Especially since BTN could shovel and you're in 3rd by the next hand. Doesn't seem horrible though as the math shows.

If you think you're better than them ez fold, if they make dumb calls (most likely) then wait.
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Alpine021
Old 12-14-2010, 11:07 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Alpine021
Hey,

Ah didn't realise 34% was 3 way. OK.

Yeah looking back think it was a wait. I think it was the dead money that
swung my decision. I was pretty sure BTN was folding as I think at the time
ppl were taking stabs pre but backing away to 3-bets / shoves.

Plus there is a good chance of a pay jump for him if he gets out of the way.

Cheers tho guys. Also DRMC that hand simulator doesnt seem to let u put in 10s?
It says line error or something?

Do you have to input it differently?
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drmcboy
Old 12-14-2010, 05:06 PM #7 (permalink)  
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 click on the "Syntax help" in the green under the buttons.

10 is "T"
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