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LawDude
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12-25-2009, 08:17 AM
Post subject: ok to peel this flop?
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#1 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 940
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i hate plays like this, because you are basically staying in purely due to the size of the pot. in any event, we are playing 20/40 at the bike and the table might as well be an aquarium.
hero is UTG+1 with 6d5d. UTG limps, hero limps, MP1 raises, 5 callers including hero, 6 players see the flop.
flop is TT4 rainbow, no diamond. hero checks, MP1 bets, all 4 others call, so we are getting 17 to 1 on a flop call.
is that good enough for a backdoor straight draw?
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JR9477
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Iowa
Posts: 426
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Kinda did some quick math, not so sure it's right, but I'm going to say this is going to be a little less breakeven.
You appear to be getting decent odds but then there's likely to be a bet on the turn that you will call when you improve to a straight draw (34% OE or GS), that worsens your pot odds just a bit. Not so sure about how much implied odds of getting paid off on the river affect the situation overall, but since you will so rarely draw fully to your straight, I would guess not very much.
If there was a diamond on the board, or even if you were able to draw to trips/2pair then you might be better off.
If I figure out the proper math before someone else does, I'll post it up.
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(Josh)
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Muzzard
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Cheshire, UK
Posts: 1,843
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Chopper
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 4,255
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fold, dude. no sense in chasing a b/d straight on a paired board. even at 30:1, its just putting bad money in the pot. you know me with big pots, and i fold here so fast it would spin your head.
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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defenitely fold
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codemanz4
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High Card
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Macomb, IL
Posts: 8
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Time to abandon ship.
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jaap_stam
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High Card
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 7
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Fold big time!
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General Awesome
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High Card
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 5
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Fold the flop ainec
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PokerWiz
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 52
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Fold taht. And IMO, if you were gonna play that hand, you might as well have raised PF to eliminate other players. But that's just me. I either fold or raise PF.
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
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I know this is a little old, but I'm not raising that pre in the environment described, Wiz, and it's a fairly important concept.
You don't want to get 3bet pre and have the rest of the table fold, and find yourself oop with a drawing hand when the alternative is a family pot with a drawing hand.
The latter is so much of a better investment.
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