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DrivingDog

09-04-2007, 09:43 AM Post subject: odd river play

#1 (permalink)

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Join Date: Jul 2007

Location: UK

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I've played a lot of hands with Villian. He is a TAG but has been on a bad run lately and has started making some uncharaterstically bad plays here and there.

He underdefends his blinds, so a call from him in the BB in this situation usually indicates a reasonably decent hand, maybe 22+, JT+, 98s+.

I would normally bet again on the turn, but this player is quite tight postflop and will generally only call this flop with a pp, 5, or trips and would fold something like KJ. The 5 seems unlikely as there's very few hands he'd call a raise from the BB with that include a 5, maybe A5s and 55. So i'm inclined to put him on a pp or Q, possibly AT+.

He knows i'm fairly aggressive and likes to c/r the turn and river against me with good hands.

On the river, i'm inclined to think he's bluffing or at best has an Ace because i assume he would have bet out a FH after I checked the turn.

Thoughts?

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K

, A

.
1 fold, Hero raises, 1 fold, Button calls, 1 fold, BB calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) Q

, Q

, 5

(3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, Button folds, BB calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) T

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: (4.25 BB) T

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero ?

Final Pot: 8.25 BB

"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).

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Muzzard

09-04-2007, 10:02 AM

#2 (permalink)

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Location: Cheshire, UK

Posts: 1,843

I don't really understand the river bet. Obviously a FH or quads is going to at least call if not raise. Any other hand - apart from a hand that splits with you - is just going to fold anyway.

Check behind is the obvious thing, anyway... You decide to bet and got raised, but who raises with air here? Like you say if he had the FH he would likely lead out on the turn and river to maximise value, but equally I can't see how he could raise with a worse hand than you.

The only hand that seems to make sense is TT (apart from PF, he would 3-bet TT right??) or a pissed off 55 that hoped he could check raise the turn, then the river stuffed him...but even he is still beating you LOL. I'm not a limit specialist so take my advice with a grain of salt

DrivingDog

09-04-2007, 10:28 AM

#3 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by PokerMuzz

Note my read of this player - he is used to winning but has been losing. I just don't see him sitting there with a Q or 55 patiently waiting for me to bet the turn, then patiently waiting again for me to bet the river. The only T hand he'd normally consider calling preflop with and calling the flop with is AT. TT he'd re-raise preflop. Even with a T he'd probably bet out the river, hoping for a call from A high.

My question is whether there is a reasonable enough chance that he's making a bluff or that' it's a split to call his river bet.

"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).

DrivingDog

09-04-2007, 12:01 PM

#4 (permalink)

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btw, PM you're probably right about checking behind on the river, so thanks for that. My reasoning at the time was that he might just be tilting enough to make a bad call, but i agree it's a risky play.

"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).

Fnord

09-04-2007, 04:58 PM

#5 (permalink)

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Fnord is an unknown quantity at this point

Sounds like you bet the river ton induce a bluff...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

KoRnholio

09-04-2007, 06:21 PM

#6 (permalink)

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From the villain's point of view, it doesn't look like you have a Q or T either. He could well put you on 99+ that just got counterfeited, so he checked to induce a bluff. Only problem is that if he put you on that, he should just call, not raise.

There could be some multilevel (semi-tilt?) thinking going on here, mainly "Hero would check behind with a K or A high, so if he bets it's probably a bluff and I can check-raise him off it...".

I probably call just to see what he is doing, since it seems likely that it's a split or that we're ahead. Plus if we beat him it may tilt him some more

Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.

DrivingDog

09-04-2007, 10:48 PM

#7 (permalink)

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I called and villian turned over Js8s...

I wonder if his plan on the flop was to bluff-raise the turn unless an A or K came. Once i checked the turn maybe he thought he'd get his bluff in on the river?

Anyways i thought it was an interesting example of what tilt can do to someone 'cause this guy is a very solid player normally and would definitely not be calling that flop bet on a typical day, never mind making some implausible bluff on the river.

"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).

Fnord

09-04-2007, 11:37 PM

#8 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

Sounds like you bet the river to induce a bluff...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

DrivingDog

09-05-2007, 09:20 AM

#9 (permalink)

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Join Date: Jul 2007

Location: UK

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

Sounds like you bet the river to induce a bluff...

Part of it was I thought he might call with something like KJ but i wasn't afraid of being raised either. I figured there's no way he's checking a big hand to me on the turn and river, so if he does raise it's almost certainly a bluff.

"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).

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