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Odd AQ hand

  
 
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KoRnholio
Old 04-01-2008, 01:09 AM     Post subject: Odd AQ hand #1 (permalink)  
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 Preflop Capper is running 26/9/1.35 - loose but not too bad. I have a little history with him.

The BB cold caller is running 41/12/0.24 82% ShowDown /39% W$@SD over about 70 hands since I've sat down. He is ridiculously loose and likely has cold-called my 3bet with his top 60% of hands, weighted more towards suited hands. I've seen him bluff before (on the turn) when no one else showed interest in a pot. Most of the time he shows down any pair, and I've seen him call down with ace and even king high once.

Cryptologic 2.00/4.00 Hold'em (10 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q, A.
1 folds, UTG+1 raises, 2 folds, Hero 3-bets, 3 folds, BB calls, UTG+1 caps, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) 7, J, 2 (3 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks.

Turn: (6.25 BB) 9 (3 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks.

UTG+1 certainly has AK here, probably not with the K of spades. The donk could have any 2 cards and isn't folding. My instinct was to take a freebie.

River: (6.25 BB) 5 (3 players)
BB bets, UTG+1 folds, Hero...?

It's very possible that the donk just hit a pair with that 5. His post-flop aggression factor is so, so low, but after both opponents checked through twice, I could see him bluffing with his hopeless hands. 7:1 is pretty good odds... right?
Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
 
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Old 04-01-2008, 03:45 AM #2 (permalink)  
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Why not fire at the pot at the turn? They both don't seem like they have anything.
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DrivingDog
Old 04-01-2008, 03:27 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Fold preflop. An UTG+1 raise is pretty strong, no? What does he open-raise here that you're ahead of with AQ?
"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
 
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KoRnholio
Old 04-01-2008, 06:06 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 My reasoning for checking the turn is that a free card is far more likely to help me than either of them. A turn bet would be a poor semi-bluff, since it's unlikely that both or even one would fold.

From UTG+1's point of view (I will discount the donk, he is oblivious), if I had something, I probably would have bet the flop. If I bet the turn now, the only had I can really rep (that I don't have- ie one big spade) is something like 88.

Folding preflop crossed my mind, but this guy would open raise KQ/AJ/77+ in that position. With position on him I will gladly play him with AQ in this spot.
Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
 
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jmontis
Old 04-05-2008, 04:46 AM #5 (permalink)  
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he's two bets cold outta the bb, this is something i'd respect mildly. What does he have here that's so dear to him? 22+, 45s+.

I fold and think he's gettin in a value bet hoping someone with A high calls, but for 6:1, you might be gettin good odds for a bluff call.
take your ego out of the equation and judge the situation dispassionately
 
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KoRnholio
Old 04-05-2008, 05:56 AM #6 (permalink)  
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 That guy was so loose that cold calling didn't mean anything to him. Results were I called and the BB showed Jc 4c for top pair.
Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
 
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