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|~|ypermegachi
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03-04-2006, 10:01 PM
Post subject: nuts on the turn...dunno which line is best...
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: emo-kid
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5/10 shorthanded
UTG 70/44
HJ 38/12
Button 50/20
Hero has   in the SB.
BB 23/15
(yes i know, Godly table here...)
UTG raises, HJ calls, CO folds, Button calls, Hero calls, BB calls
Flop:    (5BB)
Hero checks, BB bets, UTG calls, HJ folds, CO calls, Hero calls
Turn:  (7BB)
what should Hero's plan of action be?
1) bet out, hoping to get a 3bet in.
2) check/call and keep customers.
3) check/3bet and trap at least one opponent.
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elipsesjeff
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I would like to bet the flop here to get odds to call a raise for my gutshot. The turn I think you should check/raise as you played it, you've got the better directly to your left so theres potential to get 3+ more bets here.
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mike4066
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with the preflop and flop action i think you have a very % change to get the turn CR in and would run it.
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Demiparadigm
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
I would like to bet the flop here to get odds to call a raise for my gutshot.
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This is a HUGE misconception, and a leak. I'll make a seperate post this weekend explaining why.
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To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.
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elipsesjeff
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Demiparadigm
Quote:
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Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
I would like to bet the flop here to get odds to call a raise for my gutshot.
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This is a HUGE misconception, and a leak. I'll make a seperate post this weekend explaining why. |
I would like to hear your explanation for it, as I've had GREAT results out of doing this over my last 20-30k hands or so. Its very similar to donking your bottom pair here if you KNOW that if you hit your 5 outter you'll both 1) get a checkraise off and 2) be good.
For example: Say you called 73s out of the BB getting like 9-1 or something crazy (to make it correct or so) and the board is 359, more often than not you'll win if you hit your kicker and you'll be able to get a check raise off. It works pretty well. Shit, sometimes you just take down the pot anyway.
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|~|ypermegachi
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4-of-a-Kind
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didn't you say i gave myself odds to call the gutshot in the other A2s steal thread? :P
btw, i don't think betting out here could be correct. we don't have odds to call 5:1....so why bet it? we certainly do not have the best hand right now. also, if someone raises, and everyone else folds, we don't wanna be calling down against a single opponent with a strong draw (in that we're drawing to a strong hand).
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elipsesjeff
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by |~|ypermegachi
didn't you say i gave myself odds to call the gutshot in the other A2s steal thread? :P
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Theres a difference!!! (mines on the flop and I'm not raising, and I really want to see that turn card).
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btw, i don't think betting out here could be correct. we don't have odds to call 5:1....so why bet it?
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We figured we need similar to 6-1 on the flop to call on a gutshot right? Well, we would certainly get that if we checked and had someone else bet and then call (as happened) but many times the preflop raiser will autoraise with his hand, thereby giving us incorrect odds to call. BUT, what if it were correct for us to bet out?
Think outside the box here for a moment, how much folding equity do we need to make this bet profitable (hence, making it go from our 5-1 to a 6-1)? The difference between 5-1 and 6-1 is only 3.33. % And, we win this pot more than 3.33 % of the time by just betting out (you would be surprised).
So, we have odds to both bet the flop and call a raise (but probably not a raise and reraise, which is fine). Also, if the pot is so big we also may have odds to call to the river as well.
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if someone raises, and everyone else folds, we don't wanna be calling down against a single opponent with a strong draw (in that we're drawing to a strong hand).
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Actually, the whole point to my bet is so i have odds to call a raise. How often will another opponent bet and then get autoraised? You're stuck either way. As long as you have odds to call, you must do so.
BTW, this is a piece of information i consider privelaged. Those who talk to me on vent know about this. So don't say I dont post good stuff!!!!!!!
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dsaxton
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Demiparadigm
Quote:
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Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
I would like to bet the flop here to get odds to call a raise for my gutshot.
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This is a HUGE misconception, and a leak. I'll make a seperate post this weekend explaining why. |
It does seem like an odd concept to bet out in full knowledge you're getting at least called by better hands just so it becomes "correct" to chase. Somehow the increased likelihood of a check-raise compensates for this loss?
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elipsesjeff
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Moderator
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by dsaxton
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Demiparadigm
Quote:
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Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
I would like to bet the flop here to get odds to call a raise for my gutshot.
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This is a HUGE misconception, and a leak. I'll make a seperate post this weekend explaining why. |
It does seem like an odd concept to bet out in full knowledge you're getting at least called by better hands just so it becomes "correct" to chase. Somehow the increased likelihood of a check-raise compensates for this loss? |
Possibly, but its more because you have a chance to win the pot unimproved on the flop and being able to see the turn as an added bonus. It's an even bigger bonus when you have some kind of hidden backdoor flush draw as well, but you can't call two cold on the flop.
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euphoricism
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I prefer to donk the open enders way more than the gutshots..
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elipsesjeff
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by euphoricism
I prefer to donk the open enders way more than the gutshots..
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Well, thats more for value than anything.
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jmontis
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Full House
Join Date: Dec 2004
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Mike Caro talks about check calling in these situations to keep other people in, but if you think he's agro enough to raise, then bet out.
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take your ego out of the equation and judge the situation dispassionately
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|~|ypermegachi
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jeff, so you're essentially making a very very slim semi-bluff on the flop....
(back track a bit....on the turn i checked, BB bets, UTG folds, CO raises, hero 3bets, BB folds, CO calls. another T falls on the river, and i bet/call...unable to make the big laydown)
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elipsesjeff
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by |~|ypermegachi
jeff, so you're essentially making a very very slim semi-bluff on the flop....
(back track a bit....on the turn i checked, BB bets, UTG folds, CO raises, hero 3bets, BB folds, CO calls. another T falls on the river, and i bet/call...unable to make the big laydown)
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Pretty much so. As long as you are getting 4-1 on your bet, I think its worth it. My results are preliminary but they seem to be working out well.
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|~|ypermegachi
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Demiparadigm
Quote:
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Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
I would like to bet the flop here to get odds to call a raise for my gutshot.
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This is a HUGE misconception, and a leak. I'll make a seperate post this weekend explaining why. |
BOOOOOOO. I WANT CONTENT!!! POST!!! YOU PROMISED!!!!
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koolmoe
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2004
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One nice thing about donking the flop is that it disguises your hand quite a bit if you hit it on the turn. Also, a really big hand will be less likely to raise, hoping you will lead again on the turn.
I doubt I'd have the nads to do it in that spot, though. Getting isolated by the UTG preflop raiser would suck big time.
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Poker is freedom
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midas06
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Question: what happens when you bet out on the flop, get called, and blank on the turn?
What happens if you donk it, get raised, and blank?
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|~|ypermegachi
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4-of-a-Kind
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btw, you know you're babied by the convertor when everyone in the thread didn't notice that i put in the amount on the flop using BB instead of SB.
in effect, the semibluff is now 10:1, not 5:1.
i think that pretty much answers midaso6's questions...you'll have better than 6:1 odds on the turn regardless of what happens on the flop.
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elipsesjeff
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Moderator
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I don't like the c-bet again on the turn, but a check/call if you stil have odds for it. UNLESS, someone other than the preflop raisor called and may fold.
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