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A not uncommon situation

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01-29-2008, 03:13 AM Post subject: A not uncommon situation

#1 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: May 2006

Posts: 166

I have some history with this Villain. I think he's a touch loose aggro, but overall I suspect he might be good.

We're five-handed.

I get [Jh Ac] UTG and raise. To put that in some sort of context, I raise about 18% of my hands from this position.

Villain calls in SB, a calling station does what he does best in BB.

*** FLOP *** [Ah 6c 8s]

Check to me, I bet, Villain calls, BB folds and we're HU.

*** TURN *** [Ah 6c 8s] [4c]

I bet, Villain check-raises. Now what?

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KoRnholio

01-29-2008, 06:03 AM

#2 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2005

Posts: 2,165

KoRnholio will become famous soon enough

Call down. He could be doing this with nearly any ace, maybe even a flush draw. We are ahead of nearly all his aces (I imagine he would have 3bet AQ+ preflop), with various outs depending on which 2 pair he has.

Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.

DrivingDog

01-29-2008, 10:38 AM

#3 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jul 2007

Location: UK

Posts: 923

Villian needs to be pretty loose-aggro to c/r the turn with any hand that doesn't have us beat, given that we've been the aggressor the whole way with the A on board. A semi-bluff would mean he called the flop with only a backdoor draw, and then c/r'd the turn when there was no reason to think it would make us fold. A c/r with a worse Ace is conceivable but unless he has a good reason to think you'd c-bet the turn with air (and i hope he doesn't) it also seems very unlikely.

We are behind and/or drawing dead here often enough to get away from the hand i think. I would fold this one, but be prepared to call him down next time in a similar situation if it comes up in the near future.

"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).

snowboard_31

01-29-2008, 10:19 PM

#4 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Mar 2007

Posts: 206

I wish I had the strength to fold this one but im calling down as well, getting angry and then noting his c/r on the turn is 2 pair or better

1. Get a seat to their right
2. Steal blinds at will
3. ...
4. Profit
"It should be a crime to not bet if someone has checked to you twice."
-soupie
"If you can pinpoint a player's range, you can own his soul."
-Bond18

KoRnholio

01-30-2008, 12:03 AM

#5 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2005

Posts: 2,165

Full ring this is often a barf-fold even against an aggressive player. But 5 handed I am showing this down very, very often.

Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.

01-30-2008, 04:33 PM

#6 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: May 2006

Posts: 166

So here was my crappy ass reasoning. The likelihood of him having a monster I'm way behind to (i.e. a set or a str8) probably about equals the liklelihood of him cr-ing with something I beat. The highest probability goes to him having two-pair, for which I have the odds to draw and improve. Fair enuff.

Then I whiff the river and I'm like, well I've only gotta be right 1 time in 9 to call his bet, and I don't feel good about my read so I'd better call.

To conclude, I am a calling station and need help, but is calling the turn and folding the river unimproved just retarded?

DrivingDog

01-30-2008, 06:03 PM

#7 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jul 2007

Location: UK

Posts: 923

It's a somewhat marginal decision what to do once we get c/r'd on the turn, and calling down is a profitable play against a small but significant percentage of loose/aggressive/goofy opponents. In the present case, however, it's very hard to put any decent-playing villian on a worse hand because:

a) He cold called preflop out of the SB. This often means a modest, drawing hand that is trying to get the BB to call to improve his implied odds. It could be 22-88 or ATs-A4s, for example. Sometimes it's also a very big hand he is trying to disguise like AA, AK.

b) He check-called the flop, an Ace with two little cards, no flush draw. If he was planning to bluff us off of KQ, 99, etc., that was the time to do it, right? That is, we probably weren't going to bet those hands again on the turn anyways, and if he gets 3bet he can just assume we have an Ace and fold his cheap bluff.

c) He check-raised the turn after we raised pf from UTG, then bet the flop and turn. There is no reason for villian to think we don't have an AK-AT type of hand and are going to call down because everyone calls down with top pair. In other words, it's an extremely -EV situation for villian to bluff here because there is no reason to think we will fold given the board and our action to this point.

On the other hand, if we have a specific read that villian could c/r the turn with a worse hand than ours, then calling down is right because we are doing so on the assumption that there is enough of a chance that he is betting a worse hand for it to be profitable in the long run. But if we do decide to call the turn raise we are committed to calling the river regardless.

Note that this reduces our effective odds from 7:1 on the turn and 9:1 on the river to 5:1 on the turn and river combined. So we need to believe villian is capable or c/ring a worse hand than ours at least 1/6 times on the turn to make calling down correct.

I would also try to avoid thinking that we can play it as though we have a chance to draw out on the river if an Ace or J comes because a significant part of villian's range of hands (like sets) will 3 bet us if we raise an A or J river, meaning our 'draw' is just a poision card for us. For these reasons I would not raise an A on the river because I wouldn't expect to be called often enough by a worse hand, but I will certainly have to pay off the 3bet that would come from A8,66, etc. The river J is a bit more friendly to our hand, however, and I would probably raise and reluctantly call a 3bet on a river J. But overall, our implied odds for drawing to an A or J are probably negative.

So considering this hand in a vacuum, I think folding to the turn c/r is correct. Like i said before though, i think folding in these situations should not become a habit because it is pretty obvious we are folding a good hand and this can be open us up to future bluffs from aggressive opponents.

"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).

MTTGuy

05-29-2008, 09:20 PM

#8 (permalink)

Join Date: May 2008

Location: new york

Posts: 11

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A not uncommon situation

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