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pokerlearner
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09-06-2005, 07:00 PM
Post subject: need strategy help to overcome long downswing
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#1 (permalink)
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Flush
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: california
Posts: 366
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Hi guys,
I am going through an overwhelming downswing right now. But I am very SURE you have all heard about it before if not felt it at some point so i will cut right through the chase and ask for pointers as to how to keep my sanity and still play poker
* Should i dramatically lower my VPIP ?
-- My VPIP throughout this downswing has not been too low (and maybe it should have been). Its at 15%. is that too high for someone to be going through a prolonged downswing. Should I tighten up some more and bring it down to 10-12%. I am still playing weak hands like AJ0, KJo, KQo from MP2 onwards and raising if 1st in. thats obviously a bad play maybe if i am going through a downswing.
-- Should i just stop playing these medium strength cards and just play AA-JJ, AK, AQ. Patience is going to be a problem if i only play these but if i am playing online and fire 4 tables maybe not that bad. Will that help me get through the downturn fast enough ?
-- I am in that phase 7 and 8 of the newbie circle of death . Its like i am playing worse than when I was just learning poker. Never felt so helpless. Just cant seem to make a winning hand any more. Going against overpairs, straights vrs. flushes, flush vrs full houses and two pairs vrs. sets so may times no kidding. but thats whining sorry.
Can anyone give me any pointers as to how change the approach. Should I Just play wired 10s or better and maybe get through this downswing. Definitely not going to play B&M anymore anytime soon and just party 0.5-1$ for sometime to come. now i laugh thinking I used to be winning 1bb/100 over 23000 hands and now I would be happy to just have 1 winning session !!  . Cleared 150$ bonus but lost 70$ of it just clearing it !! If not for bonus whoring I would be in deep trouble.
Its been like 2-3 weeks like this now and feels like a lifetime. apologise for the long post. THANKS for ANY REPLY and ANY HELP.
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jmontis
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Full House
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 1,296
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sorry dude, you just aren't going to get sympathy about downswings here. People have lost hundreds and thousands to variance, then picked them selves up and got back into the game.
If you're playing correctly, folding when you're beaten, drawing with good odds, using good post flop play, then there's nothing to fix. Keep on truckin
Otherwise, get studying and analyzing why you bleed chips
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take your ego out of the equation and judge the situation dispassionately
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Xanadu
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Full House
Join Date: May 2005
Location: st. paul, MO
Posts: 966
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You sound frustrated as hell. First thing I would do is take a break. Get your mind off it for a while. It's hard to play good poker if a bad streak is weighing heavy on your mind. It's like a subtle continuous tilt. I really don't think a VPIP lower than 15% is a good idea at those stakes. Drop significantly from that and those that do pay attention will definitely see you as a rock, and then it's that much harder to win.
Look at your game post-flop. If your VPIP is 15%, you can't be losing too much preflop as long as you are raising when you should. This downswing may have affected your postflop play. Depending on the person, this can mean either too much or too little aggression, although I think most conservative players tend to get too passive if a downswing is affecting their game. If you think you've been too passive, pump up the aggression.
One more thing, 1BB/100 over 23000 hands isn't exactly killing the game. 230 BB can be lost in a relatively short time even by someone who should be winning.
Something else worth a try is moving down a level or 2 in stakes to make a little BR back and build up some confidence.
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Nehmer
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Decatur, IL
Posts: 666
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Lowering your VPIP below 15 and quitting playing AJ/KQ/etc from early/mid position will definately NOT help you get out of a downswing. Hell, I usually raise AJ and KQ UTG at most tables. In my opinion lowering your VPIP down to 10 would most likely just put you in a pretty much constant downswing because you will be folding a lot of hands that are +EV preflop and getting killed by the blinds. Sounds like you are probably just getting kicked by variance and maybe playing a bit weak(hard to tell with no examples though). Just keep playing and you'll get through it.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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Lowering your win-rate doesn't help you get out of a downswing. You have to keep on jamming, value betting, bluff when it's profitable and call down. Adjustments like this (particularly the likely and more clostly post-flop ones that follow with this mind-set) are what turns many 50ish BB swings into 200ish BB swings.
Given the way 2/4 has been playing when I've been in the game, 15% VP$IP isn't beating that game for the max and I can't image not playing lots of hands in any smaller game.
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jmontis
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Full House
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 1,296
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it's takes time to really learn how to beat limit, especially loose games where hand equity changes drastically with lots of opponents.
PT has me rated as a semi-loose aggressive/passive, which make sense because I play lots of flops with hands like A2s, all pps, in large pots, and raise the hell out of my hands for value. And while i'm not results oriented, my profits are positive, not negative.
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take your ego out of the equation and judge the situation dispassionately
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Hate
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Flush
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 322
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IMO changing your play because you're on a downswing is the worst idea possible. (if you're not playing badly to start with...then definitely change the style).
15%? 15% is bloody low. I have something around 17-18 constantly, and AFAIK that's the reccomended number.
Nothing will help you surpass a downswing except a healthy bankroll and standard, solid play. Not getting any flushes after flopping a flush draw + gutshot? Now you've got A3s in LP with 5 limpers? should you fold because you're on a downswing and you missed your last 15 draws? HELL NO!
Just play the same as usualy if you usually have a solid game. It'll eventually die down.
10% VPIP? HELL NO! I love it when i go to party tables and sit down with 7 fish and 2 rocks , get HU with one of the rocks, get a flop of 268 rainbow and 3-bet my AQo to get the pot off him because i know the range of hands he plays, as i can count them on the fingers of my two hands.
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