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need some advice on odds

  
 
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pokerlearner
Old 07-01-2005, 06:15 PM     Post subject: need some advice on odds #1 (permalink)  
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a sample hand came up yesterday night at b&m.

Hero is Ad-Jc in the SB.

Preflop:UTG calls, UTG+1 calls,MP2 calls, CO calls, Button calls.

Flop: Ad-10s-7s
Hero checks (hoping to checkraise!), Mp2 bets,CO calls, Button raises, Hero 3 bets, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, Button caps, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: Ad-10s-7s-Ks
everyone checks, Button bets, Hero folds, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls.

River: Ad-10s-7s-Ks-Qc
everyone checks, Button bets, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls.

Button shows: A10o, MP2 AQo
----------------------
Here is my question.

after the flop cap to my 3 bet, I but button on 2 pair or a set. when the k hit, I had a gutshot (provided no one had the flush already).

I had 7 outs (3 Jacks and 4 Queens). I am not going to count the ace because its probably all dirty based on buttons betting pattern and others alling.

7 outs - 6:1 approx. I was getting 10:1 on my call for the turn call. I dont know why I folded even if I was positive that button had 2 pair or set.

How do i use implied odds in this situation to make the call ? can someone give me some simple cases and crunch some numbers. Like if i can extract 1 bets out of 2 people in the river after hitting my queen then I can safely call it etc.

all this assumes, no flush there. else i am drawing dead though.
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euphoricism
Old 07-01-2005, 08:44 PM #2 (permalink)  
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I only skimmed this, but ..

The odds only really matter when you're probably going to win the hand if you hit an out. And two pair is never the nuts.

Its really a pretty iffy draw in your case. No flush draw is folding, and the cap might mean someone flopped their set, killing your J outs. Further, a J could give someone ELSE a straight which beats youre two pair.

I think thats a good, smart, laydown.
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Demiparadigm
Old 07-02-2005, 02:16 AM #3 (permalink)  
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You have 3 outs, AT MOST. Someone may have a flush or straight already, The Q puts 4 spades on board, and the other Qs may give you a split pot. The J puts 4 broadway cards up, and if button "only" has a set you still lose. The A is obviously tainted. You are out of position. Easy fold.
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Fnord
Old 07-02-2005, 10:35 AM #4 (permalink)  
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This is B&M so...

I might fold on the flop the second time around...
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