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swiggidy
Old 04-10-2010, 03:30 PM     Post subject: Naked NFD #1 (permalink)  
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 This is a hand I saved from awhile ago

Swig: A 9 8 7
Fold, I raise 0.75, fold, SB calls, BB calls

pot 2.25
J 3 5
SB check, BB check, Swig bets $1.50, SB calls, BB folds

I think I should have bet pot here. It is too easy for anyone to call this with any J. The reason I didn't is because my standard cbet would not be full pot. Maybe this is better at higher stakes, but bad at micros (where we're assuming villains will call wide, but rarely raise)? Additionally, pot it 3way, but maybe consider a smaller bet if it's HU to the flop?

I have 50% equity vs everything but a set here.

pot 5.25
8
SB checks, swig...

I picked up a non-nut gutshot. I have 40% equity vs almost everything. The 8 is not a very scary card, although I don't think many turn cards are. Thus the turn card didn't increase FE, but maybe the bigger bet size does?

If we bet/call we'd need 45% with 100bb stacks, so this is close. My hesitation to betting was if called how do I play the river? Fold to a blank lead, bet if the flush hits obv. If he calls and checks a blank river do we just check and give up? I would think we have minimal showdown value, but would not get any better hands to fold.

Checking and keeping the pot small seems kind of weak, which is probably what I did.
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bigspenda73
Old 04-10-2010, 06:07 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 you picked up a double gutter, one to the nuts and the other to the virtual nuts as it's hard from him to have a QTxx combo

I tend to bet there, really not expecting to get c/r'ed in this spot and then I'd probably bet all rivers

edit: I'd check back a jack on the end but I'm betting most rivers, if he c/c's turn a lot of his hands cannot stand a big bet on the end
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drmcboy
Old 04-10-2010, 10:51 PM #3 (permalink)  
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 agree with spenda although I'd probably ship the J river too if I was steaming.

I'd bet $2 on flop and I think your standard c bet on a board with SD and FD should be close to full. I'll usually go 16 into 18, maybe 14 or 12 vs the nits. Turn and river I diverge a lot more & in 3 bet pots you can c bet less usually.
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bigspenda73
Old 04-10-2010, 11:51 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 like if the Jc rolls off we have the best hand enough and are now not getting better hands to fold ever so I'd just check it back
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daven
Old 04-11-2010, 12:22 AM #5 (permalink)  
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 the 8 didn't change his hand strength much at all, like if he had a set then he still does - but he doesn't cos of flop play - and he doesn't two pair here much. Bet the turn 2/3 pot for some sort of weird semi-bluff/value merge, river will be interesting.
don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit
allin, reload, repeat

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bigspenda73
Old 04-12-2010, 04:41 AM #6 (permalink)  
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 river is less interesting than the turn, if the turn goes check-bet-call then we're stacking him when we both connect or he's c/folding some weak made hand that had a draw with it.

Also, he can definitely c/c a set on teh flop, happens all the time and on this board it's probably not a bad decision to wait for a bricked turn and look to c/r and the hand plays quite easily that way OOP with bottom/middle set.
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drmcboy
Old 04-12-2010, 04:49 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigspenda73 View Post
like if the Jc rolls off we have the best hand enough and are now not getting better hands to fold ever so I'd just check it back
Most people would fold over pairs and for sure 99-TT, but I agree that won't be a big part of his range.
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