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My thoughts considering backdoor outs, and implied odds.

  
 
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Ragnar4
Old 05-04-2006, 11:53 AM     Post subject: My thoughts considering backdoor outs, and implied odds. #1 (permalink)  
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Here a while ago Koolmoe started a very interesting thread.

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...oker-25516.htm

It was one hell of an exercise, and I'm really happy I went through it and listened to his reason. Now, I make all kinds of money on my 4 out gutshot draws, and players love to whine at the table that I "sucked out".

Moving on, SSH describes that while not readily apparent, evaluating backdoor draws and assigning partial outs to those draws, can rapidly strengthen a game, and increase the amount money the intermediate player stands to make.

Here's where I have a problem though.

Lets say I'm sitting on

AcTc

Flop comes

Jc 9h 3d

Applying SSH's counting draws. We see that I have one over card. 1.5 outs (I don't count three here because you can make a pair of aces, and still lose) Backdoor flush draw. 1.5 outs, and 3 to the straight, meaning you have a no gapper backdoor straight draw, 1 out. Giving your hand a strength of 4-ish outs.

Now the part where I have a problem, is; can you use implied odds to contine this draw, If so, can you use the exact implied odds koolmoe suggests, or should you use some other function here?

I'm inclined to say that you should instead use some other function, because lets say you have the 4 outs, and you call very slim, the slimmest of implied odds suggests that 4sb that aren't yours out in the pot before betting will get you the odds you need to continue heads up with 4 outs. (he bets for 5sb, you call, he bets the turn for sb 6and7, you call, he bets the river for sb 9and10, you raise, he calls for sb 11, and 12, you end up better than your 10.5-1 pot odds for 4 outs.) Because lets say the 7s comes here, giving you a gutshot for a one card straight and the over for a total of 5.5 outs., (7.5-1 pot odds) now you only have 2.5 bb in the pot, and need to come up with 5 more BB from your sole opponent somehow, when really, 3BB is the only feasible number of Bets you're going to pull from one opponent.

But lets say that the very best happens, and the Qc comes: You now have 1.5 outs for the ace, 9 outs for the flush, 8 outs for the straight, the Kc gives you the ultimate nuts of doom, giving you 18.5 outs, or (1.48-1 pot odds.)

In this situation, you're golden. Giving perfect justification to such a slim implied odds call. But there are several other cards out there, that improve your odds of winning, but don't give nearly the same odds of winning. it's entirely possible you could end up at 8.5 outs outs which is (3.8-1) and possible you could end up at 10.5 outs (3.3-1) you could miss completely and end up at 1.5 outs (29-1) Hit your ace, and end up at 5 outs (8.2-1) It seems to me that if you were to take all of the acceptable solutions, (4 outs and up) add their permutations all together, and devide by the number of permutations, giving us right around 5-1* ish But remember since most of these draws need to go runner runner to complete, we have to compare against a bet of 1 bb AND 1sb(really THIS is the sole problem with backdoor draws, the fact that you have to pay at the typical table, 1 sb, AND one bb, unless you're successfully using the free card move) , Let's say it's a 3/6 game so you have to make 45 bucks to break even over time. Which means there needs to be right around 6 BB (36 bucks) in the pot on the turn heads up. to justfy the implied odds.

Now, I did all the math, quick and dirty, but the problem is I took 30 minutes to do it, and come out to a guess, that is entirely possible that it is very wrong. Who here has 30 minutes when sitting at any table to do what I just did considering backdoor outs?

So now that I've got what's in my mind out on the forum, does anyone have a quick and dirty way to put implied odds together with backdoor drawing outs that gives reasonable equity over time.

Or with all that being said, should I just try to stick to straight pot odds when doing implied outs draws?

Please understand, I realize that the most easily accessible answer is, call when you're good on the flop, and if you lose the % of equity on the turn, fold. I want to know more of a guideline to always see this type of situation to the river and still make money over time. Giving the impression of actually being a smelly fishy player, and helping to make the good players make poor judgements when assessing/playing you, and thus earning you more money.

*I actually didn't do this, I made an educated guess here, the number of permutations here is is a large number, and it's 4:30 in the morning.
The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?
 
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Nehmer
Old 05-04-2006, 02:38 PM     Post subject: Re: My thoughts considering backdoor outs, and implied odds. #2 (permalink)  
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Nehmer
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ragnar4
I'm inclined to say that you should instead use some other function, because lets say you have the 4 outs, and you call very slim, the slimmest of implied odds suggests that 4sb that aren't yours out in the pot before betting will get you the odds you need to continue heads up with 4 outs. (he bets for 5sb, you call, he bets the turn for sb 6and7, you call, he bets the river for sb 9and10, you raise, he calls for sb 11, and 12, you end up better than your 10.5-1 pot odds for 4 outs.)
I really don't like counting on implied odds so much with a draw that might not be good even if you hit. You are counting on the fact that if an ace hits here, you can raise, get called, and still win the hand(very good chance this doesn't happen). Same thing for the 4 card straight. I would definately need to be getting better than 5-1 pot odds to call this flop(probably depends on how stupid/crazy my opponent is on exact odds I'd want).
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