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_KO_

10-09-2005, 03:07 AM Post subject: My First Dumb Newbie Question

#1 (permalink)

Join Date: Oct 2005

Posts: 83

Here is a simple question I have about simple pot odds. As will probably soon be evident, I'm no math whizzzzzz, so hopefully the answer to this question won't be so obvious as to embarass me for posting it.

Hypothetical situation: I'm holding two of suit in the BB. Two more limp in, and the SB completes for a preflop total of 4 sb's.

The flop comes and now I have a 4 flush. The first limper bets. The second limper folds, as does the SB. Now I'm getting 5 to 1 in a situation where the math tells me I only need 4.22 to 1 to break even.

This is where I get lost. Make the following assumptions:

1: My opp has me beat post flop.
2: A card of my suit on the turn will leave my opp drawing dead and give me the win.
3: Both me and my opp know this, so the bet I call here is the last bet of the pot(since if I hit my suit opponent folds to my bet on the turn, if I don't I "technically" won't have odds to continue to the river when my opp bets the turn).

So, the situation is this... according to the pot odds(which are significantly better than the break even pot odds of 4.22 to 1) I make that call. But from my pov the situation is that I am going to hit my turn 20% of the time(yes, I know it's actually a little bit less). For our purposes we say I win this pot 1 in 5 hands. But, if I play this hand 5 times I've put 10 SB into the pot. If I win it only once, I win a pot of 6 SB total for a net loss of 4 SB every 5 times I play this hand.

So, what am I missing?

P.S. I'm using Sklansky's method outlined in SSH for calculating pot odds, and based on the examples I'm looking at it appears to me that I'm calculating and applying this right, but I just don't see how that can be.

~~ KO

"Argue for your limitations and, sure enough, they're yours." ~~ The Messiahs Handbook

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a500lbgorilla

10-09-2005, 04:03 AM

#2 (permalink)

JESUS TAKE THE KEYBOARD

Join Date: Sep 2004

Location: This room is a good place to be

Posts: 8,379

Is this for limit or no limit?

If it's for limit, you will get a lot better responses having this thread moved to the limit forum. (Which I can do, if you like.)

-'rilla

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.

_KO_

10-09-2005, 04:20 AM

#3 (permalink)

Join Date: Oct 2005

Posts: 83

For limit. Ship it there, if you would.

Gracias

~~ KO

"Argue for your limitations and, sure enough, they're yours." ~~ The Messiahs Handbook

a500lbgorilla

10-09-2005, 04:28 AM

#4 (permalink)

JESUS TAKE THE KEYBOARD

Join Date: Sep 2004

Location: This room is a good place to be

Posts: 8,379

{Ship it. BC}

-'rilla

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.

Nehmer

10-09-2005, 04:37 AM Post subject: Re: My First Dumb Newbie Question

#5 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Oct 2004

Location: Decatur, IL

Posts: 666

Quote:

Originally Posted by _KO_

3: Both me and my opp know this, so the bet I call here is the last bet of the pot(since if I hit my suit opponent folds to my bet on the turn, if I don't I "technically" won't have odds to continue to the river when my opp bets the turn).

This is a terrible assumption to make. If you hit your flush you will get paid off for at least 1 more BB and probably more than that the vast majority of the time. As for the math, the small bet you put in preflop does not get taken into consideration when you are talking about pot odds. Hence, you really put in 1 SB each hand postflop on your flush draw for a total of 5 SBs after 5 hands to win 6 SBs using your assumptions.

Demiparadigm

10-09-2005, 04:40 AM

#6 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Feb 2005

Location: Party 6 max

Posts: 1,602

Quote:

if I play this hand 5 times I've put 10 SB into the pot.

This is where your math is wrong.

You are calling 1sb to win the 5 in the pot.
So played out 5 times, you lose 4 times and win 1 for a +1sb

I don't know why you are thinking 2sbs/hand.
either you are adding the bet you make on the turn, which you shouldn't because you win when you check also,
or you are adding the bet you put in as the blind, which you shouldn't because it is no longer yours and you don't get it back when you fold.

To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.

_KO_

10-09-2005, 04:54 AM Post subject: Re: My First Dumb Newbie Question

#7 (permalink)

Join Date: Oct 2005

Posts: 83

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nehmer

Quote:

Originally Posted by _KO_

Hi Nehmer,

Thanks for the response. My take...

I'm not making the assumption based on what I would do in this situation. I know the likelihood of playing this through and getting it paid off if it hits. I am stating it specifically as a pure odds question so I can satisfy my own questions about those odds. So, what I am taking away from this is that the pot odds don't include my initial preflop bet, which I knew, but to figure in profitability on a hand I do need to take it into consideration in some form when deciding how to play that hand. Does that sound legit?

~~ KO

"Argue for your limitations and, sure enough, they're yours." ~~ The Messiahs Handbook

_KO_

10-09-2005, 05:02 AM

#8 (permalink)

Join Date: Oct 2005

Posts: 83

Quote:

Originally Posted by Demiparadigm

Quote:

if I play this hand 5 times I've put 10 SB into the pot.

I should clarify that I know the initial preflop bet isn't calculated in the odds. It is, however, part of my investment in the hand, so when this hand does go down like this(and I mean exactly like this) it is a net loser. I guess that's what I'm really trying to clarify.

~~ KO

"Argue for your limitations and, sure enough, they're yours." ~~ The Messiahs Handbook

10-09-2005, 10:06 AM

#9 (permalink)

Guest

Posts: n/a

Say you call:
17% of the time you hit the flush on the next card
You will get 5 sb + 2 BB for a total of 9 SB
I guarantee that's your average. Some people don't believe your flush and call down for 2 bets, some people bet, get raised, call, and call on the river for 3 bets, some call the turn and fold the river, etc. The average is 2BB for all intents and purposes.

9 * .17 = 1.53sb

so it's good enough to take one off if you include implied odds

Now the rest of the time you won't hit your card
Pot is 6 sb and he bets 2 sb (1 bb) on the turn
You're getting 3 to 1 and you call.
Now that's a separate decision.
18% of the time you're hitting the flush.
You're getting on average 8sb + 2 sb = 10SB or 5BB per each time you make the flush
You're only getting 1BB more from him here
I won't see anyone fold on the end for one more BB just because a flush card came
That's 0.9BB per call
So technically you should fold

But usually improving to two-pair or three-of-a-kind makes your odds better. And if you have an overcard you have to call even on the turn since you have to figure that if you hit that card you will win the pot a lot of the time.

But here you fold the turn if you're sure he has a higher pair than either of your cards.

krimson

10-09-2005, 01:14 PM

#10 (permalink)

3-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2005

Posts: 108

Quote:

Originally Posted by _KO_

There isn't anything you can do about the fact that being dealt garbage in the big blind is -EV. You should probably consider losing anything less than the big blind a success. In this case according to your calculation calling the flop bet ensures that your EV is at least better than -0.8 small bets.

Nehmer

10-09-2005, 02:28 PM Post subject: Re: My First Dumb Newbie Question

#11 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Oct 2004

Location: Decatur, IL

Posts: 666

Quote:

Originally Posted by _KO_

You can't figure out the profitability of the hand based solely on flopping a flush draw. Sometimes you are going to win the pot with a pair/2 pair/trips/straight/flush/etc...You need to factor in those other ways to win when considering how profitable the preflop small bet you put in is. The profitability of the postflop call can be determined with the simple pot odds calculation and adjusting a bit for implied odds of getting paid off after hitting the flush. You definately need to consider the profitability of the preflop and postflop actions seperate instead of lumping them together though.

10-09-2005, 11:12 PM Post subject: Re: My First Dumb Newbie Question

#12 (permalink)

Guest

Posts: n/a

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nehmer

Quote:

Originally Posted by _KO_

Well, that's what MY post said...

_KO_

10-09-2005, 11:25 PM Post subject: Re: My First Dumb Newbie Question

#13 (permalink)

Join Date: Oct 2005

Posts: 83

Quote:

Originally Posted by iopq

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nehmer

Quote:

Originally Posted by _KO_

Well, that's what MY post said...

And my thanks to you BOTH for the explains and consensus! It's often easier to make the decision that:

A) They're BOTH right
B) They're BOTH full of shit!!!

as opposed to:

Which ones full of shit?

~~ KO

"Argue for your limitations and, sure enough, they're yours." ~~ The Messiahs Handbook

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