www.flopturnriver.com

Poker Forum

Over 1,246,000 Posts!

Already Registered? Username: Password: Remember Forgot Password
Tweet

Move up or wait for the downswing?

LinkBack

Thread Tools

Display Modes

Somnio

05-15-2006, 01:39 AM Post subject: Move up or wait for the downswing?

#1 (permalink)

Join Date: May 2006

Posts: 7

I have been playing poker as a supplement income(parternity leave) for the last few months. I have stayed mainly at the .25-50 and done quite well, in fact too well. Over the last 62K I won 5.2BB/100. I plugged my numbers into the confidence formula and with 99.9% confidence my actual winrate is between 2.41->7.83 now its more likely that it is on the bottom part of that scale which means I'm due for a fairly large downswing.

I feel that I'm ready to move up but I'm scared I'm going to hit that downswing right when I move up, killing my bankroll and my confidence. Would it be best to just hang out at the 0.25-0.5 till I get closer to my true winrate, the main reason I'm splitting hairs over this is I hope to make this a fulltime job by the time i finish my paternity leave, and confidence is going to be extremely important for me to do that (plus I need to play with a large bankroll, don't play well when I'm on a 300BB roll and I need money for food that month)

Play for FREE and practice your game at...

Join the FTR Poker Forum to disable these banners and start posting!

midas06

05-15-2006, 04:43 AM

#2 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jun 2005

Location: NZ

Posts: 2,196

No, definitely move up to 0.5/1. If you're crushing 0.25/0.50 that badly over that many hands, you'll be fine moving up. The games aren't much harder at all.

Congrats on running so well

euphoricism

05-15-2006, 06:49 AM

#3 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Mar 2005

Location: Your place or my place

Posts: 3,610

You wont reach your true winrate for several more years. Maybe decades. Move up, but don't feel bad if you have to drop down. I dont believe I have ever moved up in stakes without dropping back down at least once. Or five times, in the case of the 5/10 -> 10/20

<Staxalax> Honestly, #flopturnriver is the one thing that has improved my game the most.
Directions to join the #flopturnriver Internet Relay Chat - Come chat with us!

pokerfanatic

05-15-2006, 07:32 AM

#4 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Aug 2004

Location: 6max limit tables

Posts: 1,968

LMFAO, you have a few leaks you need to plug my friend...

I’ll do what I can, but you need to be thinking bout poker more and how to improve your game...

I’m not trying to single you out Eupho I think this will help a lot of people...

A standard set of questions I ask myself when I am losing are:

a) What am I doing that is wrong or isn't working?
Note: be honest with yourself on this one you can't lie to yourself or it will never work

b) What is it that I am doing that is correct and working?

c) How can I adjust my game so that I do more of the good things and none of the wrong things I thought of in questions a & b?

d) IF still losing repeat questions a thru c
Note: this time be honest write it down on a piece of paper no one but you needs to know your dumb ass plays and donkish moves, learn from them.

“Dream as if you’ll live forever. Live as if you’ll die today.” ~ James Dean ~

"Poker is a lot like sex, peoples perceived ability usually blinds the truth" ~ me ~

"God bless him. Got to bet big to win big! GAMB00L!!!" ~ Fnord

Latest Poker News
KoRnholio	05-26-2012, 03:08 PM Australia Legalized Online Poker coming up in next 6 to 12 Months
According to an email sent out by Mark Bryan, a gaming analyst at Merrill Lynch, the Australian government plans to legalize online poker sometime in the next six to 12 months. This move will coincide ... more at Poker Blogs »

« Previous Thread | Next Thread »

Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Email this Page
Display Modes
Linear Mode Switch to Hybrid Mode Switch to Threaded Mode

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads You may not post replies You may not post attachments You may not edit your posts BB code is On Smilies are On [IMG] code is On HTML code is Off Trackbacks are On Pingbacks are On Refbacks are On Forum Rules

All times are GMT. The time now is 01:05 PM.

Play Texas Holdem Online, Online Texas Holdem Strategy, & Poker Forum

This is not a gambling website.

Poker Forum

Over 1,246,000 Posts!

Poker Forum

All Other (Limit) Poker

Move up or wait for the downswing?

Play for FREE and practice your game at...