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SinK

05-31-2007, 10:44 AM Post subject: Modified Outs

#1 (permalink)

Join Date: Apr 2007

Location: Guernsey

Posts: 26

I've recently read an article which explained what modified outs were but didn't explain how much they alter your game, what situations they apply in and exactly what adjustments to make in what situations.
Anyone know the answers? Specifics would be nice. If it helps I think they're a Mason Malmuth invention.

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NWNewell

05-31-2007, 02:39 PM

#2 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Aug 2006

Location: Kennedy Space Center, FL

Posts: 283

Really depends on the texture of the flop and opponents.

For overs, I'll give credit for anywhere from 3-5 outs.

For example, if there is a limper and I raise with KQ and go to the flop heads up with the flop being T72 rainbow. I'm probably giving myself credit for 5 outs, since I'm reasonably sure I'm not dominated, reverse dominated and my outs are probably "clean". If my hand were AK, I may drop that to 4-4.5 since he could have limped with a weak Ace and have a pair of Tens or 7's with an Ace kicker.

However, if there are two or there limpers and I raise with AK, and the flop comes J95 with two of the same suit. I'm probably dropping my outs down to 3, since some of my outs are dirty (an Ace or King of the same suit as the two one to board could give someone a flush, a King could give someone with QT a straight, players could have limped in with AJ or KJ, or A9s, resulting in my hand being reverse dominated).

Similarly, flush draws have 9 outs. But if you only have a T or J high flush draw, you may want to drop your effective outs by 1 or so in a multiway pot since it is possible that someone has a higher flush draw.

You kind of have to judge for yourself based on the texture of the flop and the number/type of opponents in the hand.

My "Operation Come Back" Thread: Interupted.

Ragnar4

05-31-2007, 09:20 PM

#3 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Sep 2005

Location: Billings, Montana

Posts: 1,284

Another interesting type of "Modified" out, is the Runner-Runner Flush draw, and the Runner-Runner straight draw.

If you're drawing to a runner runner flush. Calculate the possibility at 1.5 outs. (It's actually only worth one out, but if you catch, no one will give you credit for the backdoor flush. So you gain the .5 outs in possible bets made.)

If you're drawing to a runner runner straight, Things get a little dicey. If you have 3 to a straight, say a 7, 8, 9 with no gaps. It's worth 1.5 outs.

If you have 3 to a straight with 1 gap, say 6, 8, 9. It's worth 1 out.

If you have 3 to a straight with 2 gaps, say a 5, 8, 9. It's worth .5 outs.

So say you have 2 overs, AKs to a backdoor straight draw with no gaps, and a backdoor flush draw. True Value would be 6 outs for the 3 aces, and 3 kings, 1.5 flush, and 1.5 for the straight. 9 outs.

Modified value cuts the AK in about half. Since top pair top kicker wins 1/2 of the time we'll say they are worth about 3 outs, plus the backdoor straight draw, and the backdoor flush draw. taking us to 6 outs.

Why the modification? You give yourself artificial room to call all the way down (as long as your getting proper odds of course) and be drawn out on no matter what you catch. If you drew to 9 outs, you'd lose money over time. If you draw to 6 outs, you break even because the extra money you make accounts for the times you show down a loser.

The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?

bigspenda73

05-31-2007, 09:29 PM

#4 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Jul 2006

Location: Pwnsylvania

Posts: 7,545

bigspenda73 will become famous soon enough

FWIW having a backdoor flush draw/bd str8 draw has never influenced my decision between calling/folding on the flop.

I count them each as 1 out but I rarely use them in equity calcs. I have learned their importance in PLO but in Limit I rarely used them.

euphoricism

05-31-2007, 10:25 PM

#5 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Mar 2005

Location: Your place or my place

Posts: 3,610

I use the BD flush if i have the nuts or near nut draw. I almost never use backdoor straight.

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