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TylerK
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08-19-2007, 01:46 AM
Post subject: Meh. FPS?
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: PEANUT BUTTER JELLY TIME
Posts: 1,791
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Whole game is loose/silly
PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
Preflop: Hero is Button with T , J.
UTG calls, 2 folds, MP1 calls, 2 folds, CO calls, Hero calls, SB raises, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls, CO calls, Hero calls.
Flop: (12 SB) Q, K , T (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets, MP1 calls, CO folds, Hero raises
What do you think?
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TylerK: its just gambling if i want to worry about money i'll go to work lol
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
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I raise PF
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NWNewell
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Kennedy Space Center, FL
Posts: 283
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pfr is pretty boarderline for me in this spot. You've already got 3-callers so JTs highcard value kind of sucks. I often would rather encourage more callers (SB) and get better than 3:1 preflop odds, and keep my "relative" implied odds higher by seeing the flop for 1sb instead of 2. At this point I think we are looking to hit the flop pretty hard. I probably raise more often than not, but I have no problem just calling in this spot too.
I don't care for the flop raise. You are not going to chase out a better hand. You are not giving the SB and BB an opportunity to make overcalls behind you (which does way more for your EV than raising and only having UTG and MP1 call).
Also, SB flop check looks very suspicious... I would be very worried that he already made a big hand and I think it is a big mistake to give your self credit for more than 7 outs (even with your OES and BDFD).
You could be raising it for a free card. But the board is way too coordinated... I think some is going to improve too often on the turn and bet out, or they are already have a hand and are gong to 3-bet it right here.... both of which kill your FCR play.
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daven
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: soaking up ethanol, moving on up
Posts: 5,805
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six in a raised pot. Sounds familiar. I like calling here pre-flop..
Are you re-raising post flop to try and get the blinds out of the pot? draws? represent AJ? if the game is as loose as you say then no flush draw is folding, nor is any other jack.
I fold this flop (if it was khearts I raise), What outs do you really have?I think the 9 and ace of diamonds are scare cards for you, jacks give someone a straight, tens could complete a full house and 9/A probably result in a split pot.
Also, I can quite easily see the sb cr-ing you here. Then what? SB raised after four limpers, to do that he probably has something, cos he knows most of you won't be folding but wants to get rid of at least a couple - AA, KK, QQ?
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TylerK
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: PEANUT BUTTER JELLY TIME
Posts: 1,791
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You guys should read SSHE
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TylerK: its just gambling if i want to worry about money i'll go to work lol
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Nehmer
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Decatur, IL
Posts: 666
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by TylerK
You guys should read SSHE
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Why? What does it say that goes against what they are saying? NW is pretty much spot on in his analysis except for the fact that I'd agree with Spenda about the PFR given the general looseness of the table.
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TylerK
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: PEANUT BUTTER JELLY TIME
Posts: 1,791
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Nehmer
Quote:
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Originally Posted by TylerK
You guys should read SSHE
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Why? What does it say that goes against what they are saying? NW is pretty much spot on in his analysis except for the fact that I'd agree with Spenda about the PFR given the general looseness of the table. |
Specifically, raising or calling here is best discussed in terms of equity. I'm not saying the flop raise was better than a call, necessarily. That's why I posted the hand, because I wasn't sure. But for example, raising to try to get a better hand to fold would be a horrible reason (even though I would be happy for a better hand to fold), so that's not really worth discussing much. Discussing whether I have an equity edge that's worth pushing here is really the question at hand, and while I think it was alluded to, it's really the central point of the discussion IMO.
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TylerK: its just gambling if i want to worry about money i'll go to work lol
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NWNewell
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Kennedy Space Center, FL
Posts: 283
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by TylerK
Discussing whether I have an equity edge that's worth pushing here is really the question at hand, and while I think it was alluded to, it's really the central point of the discussion IMO.
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As we said, you don't.
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Originally Posted by NWNewell
You are not giving the SB and BB an opportunity to make overcalls behind you (which does way more for your EV than raising and only having UTG and MP1 call).
Also, SB flop check looks very suspicious... I would be very worried that he already made a big hand and I think it is a big mistake to give your self credit for more than 7 outs (even with your OES and BDFD).
You could be raising it for a free card. But the board is way too coordinated... I think some is going to improve too often on the turn and bet out, or they are already have a hand and are gong to 3-bet it right here.... both of which kill your FCR play.
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TylerK
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: PEANUT BUTTER JELLY TIME
Posts: 1,791
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Point by point,
Quote:
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Originally Posted by NWNewell
You are not giving the SB and BB an opportunity to make overcalls behind you (which does way more for your EV than raising and only having UTG and MP1 call).
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This is way wrong. I build a pot by raising, not calling, and potentially improve my pot equity. Calling to encourage calls behind is a bad reason to call in this spot, especially where the blinds have odds to call 1sb with just about anything.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by NWNewell
Also, SB flop check looks very suspicious... I would be very worried that he already made a big hand and I think it is a big mistake to give your self credit for more than 7 outs (even with your OES and BDFD).
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Without a specific read, I'm taking his check to mean he whiffed. I'll re-evaluate if he does 3-bet, but I'm not going to get passive just because of monsters under the bed.
EDIT: bad word choice...he probably has some kind of hand but I'm not assuming he's getting ready to c/r a monster hand.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by NWNewell
You could be raising it for a free card. But the board is way too coordinated... I think some is going to improve too often on the turn and bet out, or they are already have a hand and are gong to 3-bet it right here.... both of which kill your FCR play.
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I'm not probably getting a free card here ever.
So again, we're dancing around the issue at hand. A pot equity edge does not mean I'm currently in the lead. The question is whether I have more than 20% equity in this 5-way pot, and I lean toward thinking I do.
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TylerK: its just gambling if i want to worry about money i'll go to work lol
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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Pre-flop: Might be value in raising, calling is fine.
Flop: Just call, you have a bunch of weak draws and would really like someone else to bet your hand into the field if any of them hit.
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dsaxton
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Arlington, VA
Posts: 2,667
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If your argument is that you have an "equity edge" (which is probably untrue), you also have to consider that when you don't, it often gets 3-bet and you still have to call. I think this and a couple other factors should incline you towards a call.
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Nehmer
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Decatur, IL
Posts: 666
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by TylerK
So again, we're dancing around the issue at hand. A pot equity edge does not mean I'm currently in the lead. The question is whether I have more than 20% equity in this 5-way pot, and I lean toward thinking I do.
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And the question I'll ask is this...When you raise and force the next two people to fold to the now 2-bets when they might have called 1 bet, do you still need only 20% equity in the pot? This is why NW was saying that the overcalls could help out your EV more than the raise.
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DrivingDog
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 923
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
Pre-flop: Might be value in raising, calling is fine.
Flop: Just call, you have a bunch of weak draws and would really like someone else to bet your hand into the field if any of them hit.
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Ditto. You almost certainly have a small equity advantage against 4 players on the flop but the turn may dramatically change that one way or the other. If i it changes it in your favor you can c/r, if not you can call and hope to suck out on the river.
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"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
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TylerK
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: PEANUT BUTTER JELLY TIME
Posts: 1,791
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FWIW, I got some feedback from Ed Miller on this hand:
Quote:
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Originally Posted by NPA
I like raising the flop also. With an openended straight draw and a pair, you have a lot of ways (potentially) to win the pot. For the raise to backfire, you really need to be drawing much slimmer than normal... perhaps against another J and a flush draw, or against a flush draw and a hand like AT, or against a set and a flush draw. In the average case, I think the raise is profitable.
You have a pair and straight draw. Sure, some of your outs may be tainted and/or dead due to other holdings, but the pot's big, this is the flop, and you're very likely drawing live at something. I play my drawing hands hard in general. It disguises good made hands for one, and for two it is often the best play "in a vacuum." I see no reason to deviate from that principle in this hand.
Now if you didn't have the pair to go with your straight draw, maybe I'd just call. In that case you could fairly easily be drawing to 6 outs for half the pot. But here you could win by catching a T or even possibly a J (though I wouldn't count on it).
I'm not that concerned if you get 3-bet.
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TylerK: its just gambling if i want to worry about money i'll go to work lol
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
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lol@ a Jack winning the pot for you
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