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Maybe limit isn't my game?

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sejje

08-30-2005, 12:58 AM Post subject: Maybe limit isn't my game?

#1 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Mar 2005

Posts: 883

I do'nt know. I started off the other day doing great, won like 180, then yesterday afternoonI was up over 300 playing 2/4.

Then last night I lost all of the 300 back, today lost more, I'm -$57 overall.

I'm getting rivered over and over again. I know this is supposed to be my bread and butter, because I'll win more than I lose. However, I just don't know. Of my big pairs, only QQ is playing to a winner. I'm not really trying to post for sympathy (although I don't hate it

), but more wondering what's going on.

I understand that you can go on a rush and bust games up. But I wasn't just playing all kinds of hands and winning with crazy crap, I'm playing top pair, 2 pair...the nights I was winning I was getting calls around the table from small pairs, second pairs, gutshots, you name it. And taking down the pot.

Now it's basically the same, I'm just not taking down the pot. I'm not overplaying my big pairs, I don't think. I'm not going crazy with KK with an ace out. Three flush under flush hands, twice lost with the underfull, once to a 77 that spiked the river. Countless misses with AK after capping preflop (thanks Fnord!), and then not sure where to go from there in a 5 way pot.

I have folded some hands like JJ with a TKA and a lot of action, and they ended up being winners. Folded KK with AQQ on board, would have split. Stuff like that.

The players are obviously a bunch of donks, lots of them show a loss of 200 or more over 200 hands. Calling down with 33 and five overcards in a 5-way pot, stuff that's unbelievable to me. Seems like top pair any kicker is good for a big pot half the time, you can get 2 callers per street that don't have top pair. I see cold-calling three bets with Q5o.

Anyway, I'm a winning NL player in 25 and 50NL (who isn't?), but it stresses me out. I'd love to play limit.

So, based on these very vague, general descriptions, I'm wondering what my case is:

1) I was on a lucky streak, went up 500 bucks and now my shitty game is catching up to me.

2) Some bad beats and some bad play have led to this downswing.

3) I'm decent, at least a winning player, and I'm hitting some nasty variance.

So, like I said, that's it. Is a -125ish downswing commonplace? Acceptable? A sure sign of disaster? I could always go back to the 50NL tables and camp...

Edit: Oh, some stats:
Hands approx. 4K
VPIP 17%
Won $ WSF 24%
BB/100: -.59
Went to SD: 25%
Won at SD: 56%
PFR 5.1%
Need any others?

So I'm tight, and not as agressive preflop as I could/should be. It's hard to play more hands without cold-calling or limping suited connectors or playing what I think of as junk (big offsuit cards), methinks.

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sejje

08-30-2005, 01:00 AM

#2 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Mar 2005

Posts: 883

Hands like this are so common, how can I be playing to a loss?

(2 random guys)

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 6

, 5

.
4 folds, MP3 calls, CO raises, 2 folds, BB calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) J

, A

(3 players)
BB checks, MP3 checks, CO bets, BB folds, MP3 raises, CO 3-bets, MP3 caps, CO calls.

Turn: (7.25 BB) 9

(2 players)
MP3 bets, CO calls.

River: (9.25 BB) T

(2 players)
MP3 bets, CO calls.

Final Pot: 11.25 BB

Results in white below:
MP3 has As 2c (three of a kind, aces).
CO has 8c 8h (two pair, aces and eights).
Outcome: MP3 wins 11.25 BB.

pokerfanatic

08-30-2005, 01:04 AM

#3 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Aug 2004

Location: 6max limit tables

Posts: 1,968

What’s the point of that hand? You had a marginal to rag hand folded it PF like you should have and didn't hit shit...

“Dream as if you’ll live forever. Live as if you’ll die today.” ~ James Dean ~

"Poker is a lot like sex, peoples perceived ability usually blinds the truth" ~ me ~

"God bless him. Got to bet big to win big! GAMB00L!!!" ~ Fnord

sejje

08-30-2005, 01:09 AM

#4 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Mar 2005

Posts: 883

Err, I should have changed the names. That was a hand I observed. You wouldn't catch me raising either of those hands. My point was "jesus christ look at this guy."

sejje

08-30-2005, 01:18 AM

#5 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Mar 2005

Posts: 883

Here's a typical big losing pot for me. Maybe I'm playing it wrong. Sometimes I would call down after the diamond came out. Probably should have checked behind on the turn. I'm sure that dipshit is playing it wrong. How can you not raise the river?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q

, Q

. CO posts a blind of $2.
Hero raises, 2 folds, MP2 calls, 2 folds, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 6

, Q

, 3

(4 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero raises, MP2 folds, SB folds, BB calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) J

(2 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, BB calls.

River: (10.50 BB) 5

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

Final Pot: 12.50 BB

Results in white below:
BB has Kd 4d (flush, king high).
Hero has Qs Qh (three of a kind, queens).
Outcome: BB wins 12.50 BB.

booradly07

08-30-2005, 01:20 AM

#6 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Dec 2004

Posts: 120

For arguments sake I will just say you played perfect poker this whole time and made no mistakes...

You are DOWN from your initial limit investment over the course of a few days around 15BB. Not allot for someone who is learning limit.

Up 180 is only 45BB at the level you are playing. Depending on how many tables you are playing and how long you were playing that is not a big win at all.

From my limited experience over the last couple of weeks I think you are just seeing some variance. And, since you said you were a NL player you should consider learning to play at a lower stake than the 2/4 level. The game may not be measurably harder at 2/4 but why waste the money if your still learning to play? In no limit, single mistakes cost you big. In limit, they cost you very little but add up to big mistakes over time.

If I were to give any advice, I'd say you are probably doing ok and its variance, read SSH by Ed Miller, buy Poker Tracker and step down to .50/1. I know the rake is higher but you shouldn't pay to much to learn how to play either...

I started out with a -100BB downswing over 5000 hands partially because of leaks and partially because of the way the cards were running. After ~16K hands I am now at +300BB.

NOTE: Variance is a bitch. You will have downswings no matter how uber your strategy is.

NOTE2: Try playing during the most fishy hours to hone your skills against those who are not even self-aware.

Brad

jmontis

08-30-2005, 01:20 AM

#7 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Dec 2004

Posts: 1,296

there is absolutely zero reason to worry about your other players mistakes.

take your ego out of the equation and judge the situation dispassionately

booradly07

08-30-2005, 01:30 AM

#8 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Dec 2004

Posts: 120

Quote:

NOTE: Variance is a bitch. You will have downswings no matter how uber your strategy is.

NOTE2: Try playing during the most fishy hours to hone your skills against those who are not even self-aware.

For example: This weekend over Saturday and Sunday I was a 12BB loser for the weekend when I went to bed last night. Not to much but I would have expected to gain around 40-80BB over those two days so not making me happy either. However, the point is, at one point I was down around 85BB and was wanting to tear my eyeballs out. I started checking up on my opponents with Ace HuD and realised I was really just unfortunate enough to have bad table selection instincts. I was sitting at a bunch of tables with very low VP$IP's (25% and lower on average) with 50+% Taggy Types and MAYBE if I was lucky one fish and I was playing the game like I was playing with a bunch of drunks wanting to gamble as I am usually only able to play (fortunately) during the fishy hours when people are tired and/or drunk etc. I walked away and came back Sunday night to play during the fishy hours and made up MOST of my losses in a couple of hours of well good table selection play.

FWIW

Brad

sejje

08-30-2005, 01:35 AM

#9 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Mar 2005

Posts: 883

Brad, thanks.

1) I own pokertracker and 2 copies of SSH (lent one out, and never got it back. but it's still freakin' mine!). I emulate the strategies laid out as best I can...I read it starting out in NL, and hand selection probably made me a winning player at first. I'm able to grasp some of the higher concepts in post-flop play, but mabye not exact them at all times.

2) This game is absolutely not a "tough" game, as far as having good players. NO, not a chance. It's the "beginner" 2/4 tables, and they're not kidding about beginners. I don't know who's winning the money, but I've only seen a handful of winners, and I have over 500 hands on many of them. I'm glad I'm not losing as much as they are. However, I do understand moving down. I read another thread somewhere about how insanely frustrating it was playing 1/2 at party, though.

3) I know I'm not down a lot, but after being up 500 it just hurts my pride. I'm better than nearly all of them. I just can't get a read on ANYONE, because they could be holding any two. I can usually see a flush drawer hit and sometimes can see 2 pair...I've lost a lot in flush under flush and underfull houses. I was just pushing them all the way. I didn't hit my flush to call down...is this right?

4) I'm also not one of those "I wanna move up so I can play the guys who aren't morons" kind of guys. I like these tables, I just want to beat them.

Edit: In response to the last one...the tables I'm playing all have average VPIP % over 35ish.

booradly07

08-30-2005, 01:54 AM

#10 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Dec 2004

Posts: 120

OK then, FWIW, if you are playing w/ SSH in mind I would definately say you are just experiencing the shit end of variance. I don't think you can play that style and be a long term looser at this level. Back around a year ago when I tried playing limit I was a big loser because I didn't realise how bad other people suck. Then I came back to the bottom again a few weeks ago because of my own issues with self control (another story). I read SSH and unless I'm just having a 17K lucky winning streak I would say I am pretty confident that I have a good future from here if I keep the SSH principles in mind and have good table selection and the ability to shrug off losses, get up from bad tables etc...I know the game well enough to win now I just have to continue to improve my post flop play and master my own emotions.

It does hurt your pride to start seeing yourself beaten by lessor players but what you have to start doing if you know you aren't making mistakes is simply smiling to yourself. Just to make myself feel happy, I count every bad beat as 2-4 wins later down the road depending on how outrageous the odds were.

thenonsequitur

08-30-2005, 02:06 AM

#11 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Nov 2004

Location: Location: Location

Posts: 637

Quote:

Originally Posted by sejje

I do understand moving down. I read another thread somewhere about how insanely frustrating it was playing 1/2 at party, though.

If you move down to 1/2, don't do it at party or you will be paying twice the rake as other limits and other cardrooms. If you move down, move to .5/1, or to 1/2 at another cardroom.

Quote:

Originally Posted by sejje

3) I know I'm not down a lot, but after being up 500 it just hurts my pride. I'm better than nearly all of them.

Pride can be the downfall of an otherwise good poker player. Or rather, misplaced pride can be. I wasn't a winning player until I stopped taking pride in winning pots, and started taking pride in playing well. I can lose 100BB in a sitting and still be proud of my play.

Quote:

Originally Posted by sejje

4) I'm also not one of those "I wanna move up so I can play the guys who aren't morons" kind of guys. I like these tables, I just want to beat them.

And you will beat them. You are probably already making theoretical money at these tables, even though you are losing real money. And theoretical money is worth so much more. You've read and understand much of SSH. That's already a huge step above most of the people that play online poker. You are posting on a poker strategy forum. That's another huge step up. Just don't let variance or frustation get to you and you will be a winner. When you reach 20k hands, you will look back at this thread and laugh.

KoRnholio

08-30-2005, 02:58 AM

#12 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2005

Posts: 2,165

KoRnholio will become famous soon enough

SSH is a very good book, but at the 2/4 level online I've found that the games aren't quite that crazy/loose (I don't play party, maybe they are there). Personally I've found that other semi-advanced limit books helped my game much more for 2/4 and 3/6 online.

gutshot

08-30-2005, 05:17 AM

#13 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Feb 2004

Location: lemonade was a popular drink and it still is

Posts: 608

Your sample size sucks. I've seen the same swings in less hands at Party 2/4. Come back in 6k and report stats.

-jay

"i think the biggest leak in my game is using 2nd level thinking against players who can't think on the first level." -Renton

jmontis

08-30-2005, 05:34 AM

#14 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Dec 2004

Posts: 1,296

"Fnord: 10k hands is not long term"

take your ego out of the equation and judge the situation dispassionately

Hate

08-30-2005, 11:53 PM

#15 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Jul 2005

Posts: 322

First of all, the ONLY time you should look at what holding on to your hole cards would have meant is when you would LOSE. It's simply not good for morale/self control to look at a flop of 666 after folding 62o and thinking "damn...i would have floped quads". Yeah, if you find it funny, it's ok...but don't beat yourself up about it. I like it when i throw KJo, flop nut straight with 2 of a suit and someone rivers a flush after having the odds to chase it, looking at the hand and thinking "wow...i would have lost SO much money on that if i'd made the wrong play to stay in with KJo".

I am new at limit. Started playing on 10 Aug at party's 0.5/1 beginner tables. Had 2 sessions which got me to +40 BB then a monster -30BB session, which i looked back to with pride because i played it beautifully but got sucked out on, and just caught the ass end of variance. The thing is, i shrugged it off (for the first time EVER) and just kept playing the same way and now i'm at +116 BB (okay, not a huge amount or a sustainable win rate but i'm just learning the game).

The idea is that variance does happen, and if your play is correct (and FTR helps a lot with this), just shrug it off, and the suck-outs to the buddy list, and eventually you WILL make up your losses and then some because of the same crappy plays that got you into a downswing.

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