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MAX VALUE OR SPEW?

  
 
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socal1111
Old 06-14-2008, 07:03 AM     Post subject: MAX VALUE OR SPEW? #1 (permalink)  
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socal1111
Live $40/80.

Villain is VERY GOOD, who usually plays in the $60/120 & $100/200. Very good, tricky... absolutely not ABC, making you think on multiple levels.

I open 9c,9s from CO. Villain 3-towns from SB. I cap.

His range is extremely wide here (especially if he puts me on steal, which I'm sure he does). He's NEVER EVER calling from the SB... only raising/folding.

FLOP (4.5 BB's)
Qh, 5s, 7c

He bets out, I raise, he insta-calls. Not quite sure what the insta-call means, but my instinct is telling my NO Q.

TURN (6.5 BB's)
8h {Qh,5s,7c}

He leads again... I RAISE!

Talk to me-
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DrivingDog
Old 06-14-2008, 02:22 PM #2 (permalink)  
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I prefer calling down here. The turn donk after you capped pre and raised his flop donk is very strong. He will never fold a better hand and we will get mauled by sets and two pair hands.

Raising would make sense if he would donk a 6x or FD hand here but if he's doing that he'd probably bet the river again anyways. If you raise he's almost always going to c/f the river UI, so you still only win two bets when you're ahead.

Of course, if he's on a complete bluff raising will just make him fold whereas calling will give him the chance to bluff again on the river.

There may be a few situations where raising gets you value - e.g., he has a pair and a draw and will call down UI, or thinks his AK is good and will call down, etc., but I don't think these arise often enough to make raising correct. It seems more likely he would just c/c these hands down since you've given no indication of being willing to fold.
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euphoricism
Old 06-14-2008, 04:03 PM #3 (permalink)  
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I like the flop raise. I call down on the turn. I dont want to put more than 2 bets in on the turn and river. I think you'll end up in a spot where youre putting 3 or more in (he raises, or donks the river too) while behind and 2 in while ahead if you raise turn (he folds)

The trickier a player is, the more straightforward I think you should play him. They have a tendency to out-trick themselves. The one thing a LAG hates is a calling station ;]
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socal1111
Old 06-14-2008, 05:51 PM #4 (permalink)  
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socal1111
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrivingDog
I prefer calling down here. The turn donk after you capped pre and raised his flop donk is very strong. He will never fold a better hand and we will get mauled by sets and two pair hands.

Raising would make sense if he would donk a 6x or FD hand here but if he's doing that he'd probably bet the river again anyways. If you raise he's almost always going to c/f the river UI, so you still only win two bets when you're ahead.

Of course, if he's on a complete bluff raising will just make him fold whereas calling will give him the chance to bluff again on the river.

There may be a few situations where raising gets you value - e.g., he has a pair and a draw and will call down UI, or thinks his AK is good and will call down, etc., but I don't think these arise often enough to make raising correct. It seems more likely he would just c/c these hands down since you've given no indication of being willing to fold.
Initially, I thought of only calling down, but...

I knew that he knew I couldn't check turn thru, due to my aggression... so if he was REALLY that strong, he'd C/R. His lead smelled very weak, and (IMO at the time) was done to slow down, and confuse me, not for value! I wanted to punish his middle pairs and all drws, w/ the ability to take free showdown if needed.
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DrivingDog
Old 06-14-2008, 06:59 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by socal1111

Initially, I thought of only calling down, but...

I knew that he knew I couldn't check turn thru, due to my aggression... so if he was REALLY that strong, he'd C/R. His lead smelled very weak, and (IMO at the time) was done to slow down, and confuse me, not for value! I wanted to punish his middle pairs and all drws, w/ the ability to take free showdown if needed.
How does leading and giving you the chance to raise slow you down? If he wants to see a river card cheap he should check and call if you bet. If he wants to confuse you and create some fold equity he should c/r and rep a big hand himself. With all the draws popping up on the turn I think the former is better since you're more likely to put him on a draw.
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socal1111
Old 06-14-2008, 09:15 PM #6 (permalink)  
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socal1111
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrivingDog
Quote:
Originally Posted by socal1111

Initially, I thought of only calling down, but...

I knew that he knew I couldn't check turn thru, due to my aggression... so if he was REALLY that strong, he'd C/R. His lead smelled very weak, and (IMO at the time) was done to slow down, and confuse me, not for value! I wanted to punish his middle pairs and all drws, w/ the ability to take free showdown if needed.
How does leading and giving you the chance to raise slow you down? If he wants to see a river card cheap he should check and call if you bet. If he wants to confuse you and create some fold equity he should c/r and rep a big hand himself. With all the draws popping up on the turn I think the former is better since you're more likely to put him on a draw.
Good question. My answer: I don't know!

What I DID know: His turn lead was weak. I was ahead. He was going to put in 2 BB's to see river!

-Your points are all valid, and well thought.
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socal1111
Old 06-14-2008, 11:33 PM #7 (permalink)  
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socal1111
Quote:
Originally Posted by euphoricism
I like the flop raise. I call down on the turn. I dont want to put more than 2 bets in on the turn and river. I think you'll end up in a spot where youre putting 3 or more in (he raises, or donks the river too) while behind and 2 in while ahead if you raise turn (he folds)

The trickier a player is, the more straightforward I think you should play him. They have a tendency to out-trick themselves. The one thing a LAG hates is a calling station ;]
Ok, here are the results:

TURN
He lead, I raised... he only called (smoothly, no hesitation)

RIVER
Qc {Qh,5s,7c,8h}

He checked... and I hesitated, just for a split second (on accident-- very bad)... but I BET!
He immediately RAISED!!

SON-OF-A-!!!!!!!!

My head was screaming at me:
"Fold... you only beat a bluff! Idiot, he outplayed you so badly! Fold! Fold! Fold! Save the bet and the embarassment of getting chumped by a better player! FOLD! FOLD! FOLD!"

My gut was screaming at me:
"Call... go w/ your initial read! He doesn't have a Q, he would've C/R or 3-bet turn w/ Q! Call! Call! You're good, idiot! He's acting from your hesitation, this C/R wasn't planned... DON'T FOLD! DON'T FOLD! DON'T FOLD!"

I sat there for over an hour, ordered a pizza (xtra cheese), split it w/ the table, and then...

As if god, herself, grabbed my left hand... made me pick up eight, $10 chips, and threw them in the pot. "I call," is all I heard come from my mouth.

"Good call!" he said. "TY," as I waited for him to turn his hand over (I wasn't going to move until he did.)

He flipped over Ah,7h --{Qh,5s,7c,8h,Qc} ...wheeeeewwwwww

I CALMLY WALKED TO THE RESTROOM, AND THRU-UP ALL OVER THE SINK!
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