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Married to AK?

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Bullet Tooth

01-22-2007, 07:33 PM Post subject: Married to AK?

#1 (permalink)

Join Date: Jan 2007

Posts: 18

3 consecutive AK's today. Comments appreciated.

Hand 1 - MP is 83/14/1.6 BB is 70/2/0.4
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $2/$4
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG with A

Hero raises, UTG+1 calls, CO folds, Button 3-bets, SB folds, BB calls, Hero caps, UTG+1 calls, Button calls, BB calls.

Flop: A

(16.5SB, 4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, Button folds, BB calls.

Turn: 5

(9.75BB, 3 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 calls, BB 3-bets, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: J

(18.75BB, 3 players)
BB bets, Hero calls, UTG+1 folds.

Results:
Final pot: 20.75BB

Hand 2 - Against a couple of calling stations SB is 41/5/0.6 CO is 41/0/1.1
Limit: $2/$4
5 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is BB with K

UTG folds, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls, Hero raises, CO calls, SB calls.

Flop: 7

(6SB, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, CO calls, SB calls.

Turn: 6

(4.5BB, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, CO calls, SB calls.

River: T

(7.5BB, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, CO calls, SB calls.

Results:
Final pot: 10.5BB

Hand 3 - SB is the 83/14/1.6 lag from hand 1, BB is 21/0/1 and has been calling me to the river and seeing me make my hand on the river a couple of times.
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $2/$4
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is Button with K

2 folds, CO calls, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, BB calls, CO calls, Hero caps, SB calls, BB calls, CO calls.

Flop: K

(16SB, 4 players)
SB bets, BB calls, CO calls, Hero raises, SB calls, BB calls, CO calls.

Turn: 6

(12BB, 4 players)
SB checks, BB bets, CO folds, Hero raises, SB calls, BB 3-bets, Hero calls, SB calls.

River: 7

(21BB, 3 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero calls, SB calls.

Results:
Final pot: 24BB

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bigspenda73

01-22-2007, 11:07 PM

#2 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Jul 2006

Location: Pwnsylvania

Posts: 7,545

bigspenda73 will become famous soon enough

Just took a quick look (I'm at work) and I don't hate any of them. Im generally taking TPTK to showdown unless the board is screaming at me to fold.

bigspenda73

01-23-2007, 01:11 AM

#3 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Jul 2006

Location: Pwnsylvania

Posts: 7,545

Now that I've had time to look at them these hands seem more complex

Hand 1
Against a regular sane opponent the 3bet is generally not just TPGK. Thinking we have to at least peel the river though. One of our King outs is dirty (king of hearts) b/c UTG+1 has to have a flush draw. If we put BB on Ax for 2 pair then we are drawing thin. We do probably have some counterfeit outs against his range though. His AF is low leading me to think his 3bet means A LOT.

Hand 2
Pretty darn standard. If someone made 2 pair they'd tell you and you could probably fold.

Hand 3
Why are we raising the turn in hand 3. BB calls a bet and then a raise and then bets out on the turn. Hmm, set much? His PF action leads me to believe he has a pocket pair even more.

So much for standard eh

Bullet Tooth

01-23-2007, 09:24 AM

#4 (permalink)

Join Date: Jan 2007

Posts: 18

Thanks for that.

Hand 1
yeah, I think your right, a 3 bet on the turn from a passive says monster. I am not sure passives would even 3 bet 2 pair. So are we probably looking at set or better. Does that ring true in your experience? If that is the case, then any re draw is dead (not to mention the FD)... maybe we should be finding a fold to the 3 bet

Hand 2
Yeah, I found this one really odd. Question, do you check through the river with a 4 str8 on the board. I don't think SB even knew what he had when he just called with 98.

Hand 3
Is the same situation as #1 and a passive is 3 betting the turn aka "monster". I have been finding recently, that my Cbet on the flop gets called and then some fish donks the Turn. When the hand plays out, they show they flopped top pair. I guess I thought this was one of those situations so he was going to pay for his line. Again, the three bet, maybe I am drawing dead to a set or better and should get out the way.

Is folding too weak? It's just I am not much for calling down. I kind of take the view I am ahead (or could be by the river) or I'm not. If I'm ahead, they are going to pay, If I'm not, I don't really want to be paying them. Trouble comes when I get the "I'm ahead" read wrong

FWIW, I lost all 3 hands to gutshots

Bullet Tooth

01-23-2007, 01:16 PM

#5 (permalink)

Join Date: Jan 2007

Posts: 18

Looking at this again and specifically hand 1 and 3. I played around with how good a read do I need to make folding to the turn 3 bet the best play. After all, we have a large pot (21bb) here by the river if we call down.

There is a chance (slim i think) that he is bluffing. There is a small chance I have him outkicked or it's a chop. There is good chance he has 2 pair and I am re drawing, and a strong chance he has hit a set or better and I am drawing dead. So remembering this is against passives, some estimates..

Bluff - 2% (and I think that may be optimistic)
Ahead to weaker kicker - 2%
Chop to the same kicker - 3%
I re draw - 10% (~5 outs) and am good say ?? 30% ?? = 3%
And am, therefore, toast -90%

Pot is 21bb by the river and it cost 2bb to showdown from the turn 3-bet. Win it 7%, chop it 3% and lose 90%

In EV - (7% x 21) + (3% x 10.5) + (90% x -2) = -0.02bb

All seems pretty marginal base on a read that says I am 90% beat. Doubling my win chances to 14% and chop to 6% (lose 80%) results in EV +1.97. or half them so I lose 95% =EV -1

So how good is the read? Can you ever be better than 90% certain in this situation when 89% makes calling it +ev (just). At what point does EV start to become influencial. In this case, I call down, I might not win, but I don't lose either.

Overall, I think I have learnt, that the way I played them is probably optimum. I think I like the raise at the turn for hand protection / fold equity and the % chance I am beat are far lower to a single turn donk (I think anyway).

How does that all sound

Talking Boll***s ?

euphoricism

01-23-2007, 05:09 PM

#6 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Mar 2005

Location: Your place or my place

Posts: 3,610

Youve just proven an important fact -- these are not the type of mistakes that cost you a lot of money in the long run. Spend more effort finding those.

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euphoricism

01-23-2007, 05:12 PM

#7 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Mar 2005

Location: Your place or my place

Posts: 3,610

FWIW -- I'm folding top pair pretty much everytime someone with an aggression factor under 1 raises me.

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Bullet Tooth

01-23-2007, 06:39 PM

#8 (permalink)

Join Date: Jan 2007

Posts: 18

Quote:

Originally Posted by euphoricism

Youve just proven an important fact -- these are not the type of mistakes that cost you a lot of money in the long run. Spend more effort finding those.

Good point well made, although, a fold here, which I was certainly contemplating is a loss of my investment so far whilst the call down is zero sum.

bigspenda73

01-23-2007, 07:37 PM

#9 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Jul 2006

Location: Pwnsylvania

Posts: 7,545

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bullet Tooth

Talking Boll***s ?

Very nice analysis. I think we need more stuff like this around here.

KY_Ace

02-24-2007, 02:25 PM

#10 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: May 2005

Location: Toronto, Canada

Posts: 259

Most turn donk bets are weak, I like to raise these bets thinking if they had a real hand they'd CR. Some players( like myself ) will pick up on peoples tendancy to raise a turn donk bet and start donking the turn with monsters. Call them down the first time, see what they have, notes: donks the turn with the nuts, next time fold to the 3-bet from the same player or don't raise if your hand is not too vulnerable. If you pay them off the first time they do it, consider it an investment, if you pay them off the second time you're spewing. The definition of stupidity is doing the same thing twice and expecting a different result.

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|~|ypermegachi

02-24-2007, 07:54 PM

#11 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Aug 2004

Location: emo-kid

Posts: 3,580

hand 1 and 2 are pretty standard.

hand 3, you can call the flop to keep the pot size manageable. but it's also to the point where even by doing so you won't be able to make your opponent call unprofitably on the turn, so you might as well just push your equity knowing you can't make your opponents play draws incorrectly.

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