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make the call here?

  
 
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Chopper
Old 05-05-2007, 08:43 PM     Post subject: make the call here? #1 (permalink)  
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Chopper
this one is 50/50 to me. i didnt do any math in my head, as i rarely do (other than the basic odds calcs). but wondered, in relation to pot size, if i have good equity in this particular situation?

PokerStars 0.10/0.20 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K, J.
1 fold, MP calls, Button calls, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) Q, 3, T (4 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, MP checks, Button bets, Hero calls, BB folds, MP calls.

Turn: (3.50 BB) 5 (3 players)
Hero checks, MP checks, Button bets, Hero folds, MP calls.

River: (5.50 BB) J (2 players)
MP bets, Button folds.

Final Pot: 6.50 BB

obviously i folded out before calling a turn bet, but were the implied odds there, iyo? i felt i didnt KNOW MP would call the bet (not closing action), and didnt know if i'd get paid off if i hit my hand. besides, i'm down 2 outs possibly due to the flush draw.

just wanted to know the math behind it, if this would be a "loose" call, or +EV. granted, at these stakes, almost any draw is +EV thanks to the call stations. thanks
LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
 
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Ragnar4
Old 05-05-2007, 11:20 PM     Post subject: my take #2 (permalink)  
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Going to flop 4 SB.

Your outs?

You had one King, which is an over. You could hit it and win about half of the time you hit it. We take those 3 outs, and make it worth 1.5
Backdoor flush draw. Again, if you hit it, it's entirely possible you could win. I know it's a low nut. But if things stay quiet, on the turn after another diamond hits, you can be pretty sure you're ahead. another 1.5 outs.
6 outs to the stone cold nuts. with 2 more outs, being only partial outs. Lets value them figguring if they flush on you, it happens 1/2 of the time.

so a total of 10 outs.

Your first mistake? Not leading with a bet on the flop. You're more likely to get more callers and more action with a raise if you donk the flop here. Check-call isn't terrible. don't get me wrong. You may have just gotten more action, and built a bigger pot, which you figgure, at this point, to be the favorite to win 10 outs = right about 38+ ish percent of the time if you go to the river.

Anyway, as played. You get to the turn and. you brick your backdoor flush draw. But you still have 1.5 outs to the over, and 7 outs to the straight (remember I"m discounting a dirty flush out). 8.5 outs. Meaning you need to get 4-1 on your money to win.

On the Turn Button bets, hero CALLS! Mostly because it will cost you 1 bet to call, win, or lose. But you stand to make your 4.5 after implied odds even if all that happens is, he bets, you call. Or if he checks, you bet. If he bets... you raise. all 3 situations get you past the 4-1 odds you needed to call here.

When the jack comes. On the river. You have to assume that MP is bluffing 1 in 7 times on this board, with a lower pair, or pure garbage in order to call profitably. If he is bluffing more than 1-7 you call, if not. You lay down. The way the hand was played, if you checked here, and MP bet, and button folded. Since button was the aggressor the whole hand, I would at least call, because my read all along put the button on the Q. He folds, I have to figure there's SOME equity in my hand. Hope that MP didn't have AJ, or JJ for the riverspiked set. AK doesn't seem too likely here for the rivered straight because he would have had to have limped from MP.

Long story short, call the river here because of the odd, random play and make a mental note about your opponent in the future and the way he played this hand, which was soooo strange.
The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?
 
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Chopper
Old 05-06-2007, 12:45 AM #3 (permalink)  
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thats the kind of reply i need. pretty straightforward, and i usually dont play this situation aggro enough. i still beat the game because of the even "easier" situations that present themselves. but i cant help but wonder what the BB/hr would be if i were better with these decisions. always more to learn, even when the decisions seem obvious like this one.

i just didnt think this was a big enough pot to fight for with a marginal holding. but, in limit, i know there are situations like this where it is actually incorrect to fold, and wondered if this was one. i assume it is. an over, b/d flush, and oe str8.

so i can pokerstove your ideas, what range do YOU put villains on here? i will "stove" my own range, and see where my equity likely was.

but again, at this level, i had to have enough to call down and chase a str8. its the flushes that dont pay here. the str8's always do.

thanks for the detailed answer, it helped a good bit.
LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
 
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Ragnar4
Old 05-06-2007, 02:29 AM #4 (permalink)  
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I wish I could get into more detail. But quite honestly. I can't put Button or MP1 on any sort of range of hands because you haven't given me a detailed explanation of what kind of player they are. I honestly want to put button on a pair of tens with a weak kicker, and MP1 could have absolutely any hand, and to be quite honest, I have this strange feeling that he had J3 off... lol.

Do you use a HUD like Poker Ace, do you use a profiler like Poker Tracker? With the info provided from there, I could give you a very likely range of hands. As of right now. I would suggest calling, paying off if you're behind, and adding that to the range of hands you're trying to put MP1 on.
The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?
 
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Chopper
Old 05-06-2007, 03:20 AM #5 (permalink)  
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yuup, got PT and GT+, but i wanst at the table long enough to pick up anything reliable. and i just came back from NL to "dabble" again. i like limit, but after a while, i open up my game too much, and need to get back to my roots.

btw, i tried to give pokerstove some time, and came up with nothing, too. i couldnt narrow down the ranges enough to make stove worth the effort.

oh well. i run into these situations that i call "50/50" enough that i will start posting them when i come actoss them. i just need to remember to grab 'em.

oh, and i know, to the experienced limit player, they are no where near 50/50 decisions. they should be no-brainers to some of you guys.

thanks again.
LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
 
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Ragnar4
Old 05-06-2007, 04:13 AM #6 (permalink)  
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no problem dawg.

You're here trying to learn how to play a better game. I'll never look down on someone who's making a mistake, or missing a "no-brainer" on this forum.

I'm here trying to learn a better game too. Sadly, some people have really given me a hard time, because I'm willing to stick to the wrong argument cuz I'm too hard headed.

If you want to keep dabbling in these limits. I reccommend Small Stakes Holdem, by Sklansky and Malmuth. AKA SSH
It's a low limit stakes bible.

I must note, though, there is a little bit of math in there, stuff you should already know, but the application is much different from no-limit.
The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?
 
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Chopper
Old 05-06-2007, 11:01 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Chopper
i got and read the book. i feel comfortable with the concepts; although, i dont think they necessarily apply to 6max.

theres just so much more concern with long-term equity in limit because it takes so much longer to see the "correctness" of play come out in the numbers. i think thats why i like the game...in smaller doses.

however, the reason i want to get good at limit is twofold: 1) i feel having a thourough understanding of hands like the one i posted help your NL game tremendously. 2) the fish factor. fish are able to play much higher stakes in limit because of bankroll and the slower busting out.

and i like fish. they just dont stick around long above 50 NL, much less 200 NL. and its hard to make anything other than chicken scratch at 50 NL. not that i'm trying, but who knows what the future holds...you know?
LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
 
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