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Made straight with nut draw

  
 
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Bullet Tooth
Old 01-25-2007, 09:28 PM     Post subject: Made straight with nut draw #1 (permalink)  

Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 18
Bullet Tooth
The two opponents were taking how they were drunk and their play seemed to reflect it. They were normally passives but the last few orbits, they were doing some real stupid stuff like CR air on the river.

Limit: $2/$4
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is CO with Q Q
2 folds, Hero raises, Button calls, SB calls, BB folds.

Flop: J K A (7SB, 3 players)
SB bets, Hero calls, Button raises, SB calls, Hero calls.

I think the call is OK here, I am figuring for a draw given the Ace so don't really want Button going anywhere. Thoughts?

Turn: T (6.5BB, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, Button raises, SB 3-bets, Hero caps, Button calls, SB calls.

So I 've made the nut straight and have a draw to the nut flush (and royal, which would be nice). Given the three bet, I may be behind to a flopped flush, but they are pretty rare aren't they. I am fairly sure button will call if I cap. Is the cap good or spew?

River: 2 (18.5BB, 3 players)
SB bets, Hero calls, Button folds.

Results:
Final pot: 20.5BB
SB shows 2d 6d

I mean... how do you play against crap like this
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bigspenda73
Old 01-25-2007, 10:36 PM #2 (permalink)  
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Straight Flush

Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
bigspenda73 will become famous soon enoughbigspenda73 will become famous soon enough
 Especially when they don't even deal a river card!!
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Bullet Tooth
Old 01-26-2007, 01:05 AM #3 (permalink)  

Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 18
Bullet Tooth
Dam... I knew that site was rigged

It was a brick, 2 of clubs or something
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bigspenda73
Old 01-26-2007, 01:11 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Straight Flush

Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
bigspenda73 will become famous soon enoughbigspenda73 will become famous soon enough
 I think the SB c/3betting the turn has to be a flush. At best you're freerolling 20% on the river and at worst you are drawing to about 7 outs. Im not sure if the cap is really a spew on the turn or not. Once the SB donks the river after your cap you can do nothing but call.
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Bullet Tooth
Old 01-26-2007, 11:28 AM #5 (permalink)  

Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 18
Bullet Tooth
OK, I'm going to work the numbers. This all might be basic stuff for you guys, but I am still learning this and have only recently discovered EV.
Please give me comments on the methodology.

But first, why 7 outs? I see 9; any diamond. If the Td falls and pairs the board, I still have the nuts.

So firstly, working from the point of the SB 3-bet (I am happy with everything up to that point)... I am faced with 2 bets back to me. I have 6.3:1 pot odds on the call and 4.1:1 to make the nuts so no way this is a fold.

Maybe obviouse but going through the calcs has shown me, the whole thing hidges on the chance he is overplaying a strong second / third best hand like a set. As soon as there is a small chance that I'm good, or chop with 1 of the 2, then the raise is correct. If I am 100% sure he flopped the flush, then it's just a call. These are the numbers I came up with. Any comments?

I draw the nuts - 17%
He has a weaker hand (set etc) - 10%
He has a Q and we chop (2 way) - 20%
I assume he is not bluffing / semi bluffing with T
He beats me -53% . (Is 53% correct here? being 100% minus all the chances I win).In essence, I am saying I am 70% he has the flush and have a 17% re draw.

For the pot, I am assuming if I miss, I call his bet, and if I hit, he will check call. so either way, after a Cap, the final pot is 20.5 at a cost of 4 and if I call, the pot is 17.5 at a cost of 3... so

CAP EV = (17% x 20.5) + (10% x 20.5) + (20% x 10.25) + (53% x -4) = 5.5
Call EV = (17% x 17.5) + (10% x 17.5) + (20% x 8.75) + (53% x -3) = 4.9

The higher the chance he doesn't have the flush (obviously), the more the raise increases EV.

I am very aware that I haven't figured in the doomsday scenario where they both have flopped a flush and a raising war ensues on the river. To be honest, i don't know where to start on estimating a percentage of that happening. I think the odds of that scenario though are so small as to be irrelevant. Agree?

For sake of completeness, if we assume we are 100% sure he has the flush and we are reliant on a diamond river
Cap EV = (17% x 20.5) + (83% x -4) = 0.2
Call EV = (17% x 17.5 + (83% x -3) = 0.5
Arguably, if we were that sure we are beat, we fold to a river bet to reduce the cost and improve the ev numbers

All of these calcs are dependent on how sure we are on our read. From Theory of Poker, Sklansky says if we play the same if we could see his cards , we have played correctly. By that theory, I made a mistake by raising. In fact, by that theory, the optimum play is call & fold river UI.

I am worried now that all this EV stuff is just giving me excuses to showdown more. Should I be a bit more cut and dry with my reads? He c/3bet the turn, this guy has the flush, I'm calling and folding the river UI . That would be some laydown... Maybe I ought to compromise and just call down and not push this edge if it exists. Less EV but less swingy too I guess... I think I am over analysing... what am I doing....confused... help... I think my head just burst
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Bullet Tooth
Old 01-26-2007, 11:40 AM #6 (permalink)  

Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 18
Bullet Tooth
I want to add, that I now think this typifies one of my biggest leaks. I flop a pretty strong hand, it kicks off on the turn but I feel there is a fair chance I am still ahead and I also have outs to improve. I raise and push but invariable end up paying them off. I am generally here with 2 pair or better and sometimes with overpairs and sadly, I think I do it with TPTK too. I think I have really got to evaluate my turn play / reads so any guidance is welcome.

My aggression is as follows.
PFR - 16%
AF Fop - 5.5
AF Turn - 4.4
AF river - 1.7
Post flop - 3.8 (its been growing 'cos I am making more folds and less calls)
AF Total - 2.5

How does that compare?
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