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Lunch hand VI....and question

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Chopper

10-06-2009, 05:53 PM Post subject: Lunch hand VI....and question

#1 (permalink)

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READ: villain at sd is 55/25/1 and villain that folds turn is 17/14/1.6. i think my turn raise sucks because when villain 1 goes AI, i may actually be behind him, however, i am likely well ahead of villain 2.....and should therefore cherish a side pot with him.

my flop play is also suspect upon further review. however, i didnt want to force the fish out (i realize this lets them draw to whatever for cheap). but, i also dont want this 4way capped pot getting too out of control when i only hold an overpair, either. i elected to call here to keep initiative with the preflop/flop aggressor and c/r the turn when i could better protect my hand with relative position. comments there accepted, too.

thoughts? or, is the pot too large and our priority should be to take it down asap?

Stacks:
UTG (10.1)
UTG+1 (20.85)
UTG+2 (17.2)
MP1 (8.4)
Hero (16.45)
MP3 (12)
CO (9.65)
BTN (2.3)
SB (7.4)
BB (6.2)

Pre-Flop: (1.4 SB, 10 players) Hero is MP2

3 folds, MP1 calls, Hero raises, MP3 3-bets, 1 fold, BTN 4-bets, 2 folds, MP1 calls, Hero calls, MP3 calls

Flop:

(17.4 SB, 4 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets, MP3 calls, BTN raises, MP1 calls, Hero calls, MP3 calls

Turn:

(12.7 BB, 4 players)
MP1 checks, Hero checks, MP3 checks, BTN bets, MP1 folds, Hero raises, MP3 folds, BTN 3-bets

River:

(16.3 BB, 2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: 16.3 BB

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Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

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LawDude

10-06-2009, 06:52 PM

#2 (permalink)

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I am reminded of Fnord's wonderful line-- it went something like "when a fish wakes up with an inspired act of aggression, unimproved pocket aces are at the bottom of his range".

Usually, that raise on the flop means that el pescado has 2-pair or better. At that point, you basically have two choices-- (1) try and blow everyone else out (as you did) so that you are heads up against the fish, because you might draw out with an ace, a crazy straight or full house, or (most commonly) a paired board that counterfeits his two pair, or (2) just control the size of the pot and hope to see the showdown for the minimum.

KoRnholio

10-06-2009, 07:29 PM

#3 (permalink)

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I don't know if I overslept or what, but I don't see what all the fuss is about?

Everything looks fine to me. On the flop raising just bloats the pot even more, and if they are chasing a gutshot or 2 pair they are getting way more than enough odds. As for your question, we can't really take this down by 3betting the flop. The pot is large, but our best chance to protect our hand is the wait for the turn to raise.

BTN is a micro stacked donk who is going all the way with his preflop capping range regardless, so we know he will bet if we check. I like the turn check-raise.

LD, how can BTN ever have 2 pair on this flop? He started the hand with <5BB and capped it preflop. I know the Fnord quote you speak of, but this situation just isn't that at all. If a player like MP1 in this hand suddenly raised the turn, *that* is the cue to slow right down.

Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.

Chopper

10-06-2009, 08:02 PM

#4 (permalink)

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korn, my question was more of greed. i raised the turn based on my thoughts on the flop to kick them out. however, once they dropped out anyway, and btn was going to go AI, i think i should have only called and led the river to get that extra bet out of mp. however, if played that way, mp probably folds since he folded the turn. but, i didnt know that at the time, and wanted his dead money in the middle because i KNEW i had him beat. it was btn's crazy aggression that made me feel i could be behind him.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

LawDude

10-06-2009, 08:32 PM

#5 (permalink)

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So the theory is that a 55/25/1 is a ridiculous spew-monkey post-flop? Do we have a read that backs this up.

Look, in the end, I think you played the hand correctly, because you have to protect your hand if you are ahead (you should almost NEVER want to keep 3 or 4 players along to the river with unimproved AA) and there's nothing wrong with being heads up against the fish if you are behind.

BennyLaRue

10-06-2009, 08:35 PM

#6 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by LawDude

So the theory is that a 55/25/1 is a ridiculous spew-monkey post-flop? Do we have a read that backs this up.

Not necessary. You're convinced that BTN has two pair or better on the flop, right? What is in his pre-flop capping range that makes two pair or better on that flop?

KoRnholio

10-06-2009, 08:36 PM

#7 (permalink)

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Ah okay, that makes more sense. I guess I could go either way, but I think betting is better because I don't expect MP3 to ever fold 99+ here for 2 bets on the turn. Just calling will likely let him chase AJ-AK overcards if that's what he has, but even if we raise he might still call with those hands too in this huge pot.

The only bad thing is that btn still has a 3bet left on the turn, which might be enough of a threat to make MP3 dump his overcards since he should realize he will be paying 3bb to see a river.

Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.

Chopper

10-06-2009, 09:08 PM

#8 (permalink)

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Quote:

So the theory is that a 55/25/1 is a ridiculous spew-monkey post-flop? Do we have a read that backs this up.

definitely not. the af of 1 suggests he is a bit passive post flop. however, he is a bit aggro pre. his aggression is not suggesting spew, its suggesting strength to me....maybe not right away, but when i check-bomb the turn and he 3bets me, i am almost convinced that i have to be beat. however, by what, i dont have a clue. it looks like an overplayed overpair, but i dont see passives doing this too often. they tend to shut down to c/r's on the turn. i dont see 2pr in his capping range, but i do see 77. (however, there is no way i am narrowing a 55/25 down to one holding at the bottom of his possible capping range....ever. so, i am confused and the nitty side of me is seeing imaginary monsters.

Quote:

The only bad thing is that btn still has a 3bet left on the turn, which might be enough of a threat to make MP3 dump his overcards since he should realize he will be paying 3bb to see a river.

this is the crux of the problem, and the reason i posted the HH. however, i think i see it now. it all goes back to his cap. he is severely overplaying something here that i have crushed.

but, back to the problem. BTN has a 3bet left, yes, but its going in no matter what happens. turn, river, ocean, whenever. its under 50 cents. when shorties get committed like this they keep the aggression on. i just dont know where his "commitment" line is. he likely crossed it at some point. but, his spewing range right now is incredibly light, and shouldn't intimidate ANYONE. if MP3 doesnt see this, he is incredibly blind. no matter how we got to this point, that last bet of BTN's is going in whether he does it, or i do.

i was wondering if i should have held out, sucked in MP3 and got into his stack a little in the name of commitment, also. i can get one more from him, and he possibly flips the spew bit, and raises me...allowing me to call that on the river for two more. there is NO possible draw for MP3 to be playing like this, especially with his AF of 4. i just want to entice him to call me down and soften the beat i may take from BTN.

and, the only reason i think this is because BTN is basically AI at this point. if he is ahead, and i spike a miracle A on the river, i cant get any more from BTN. so, i may rather keep MP3 in this hand since i am well ahead of whatever he is playing in this capped pot.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

LawDude

10-06-2009, 10:19 PM

#9 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Chopper

and, the only reason i think this is because BTN is basically AI at this point. if he is ahead, and i spike a miracle A on the river, i cant get any more from BTN. so, i may rather keep MP3 in this hand since i am well ahead of whatever he is playing in this capped pot.

What I don't like about this is that you are forgetting the concept of ranges. BTN has some range of hands. I suspect that most of them are ahead of you, because I still don't buy the idea of a 55/25/1 spewing chips like crazy post-flop without a very strong hand. But some of them are behind you, and perhaps I am wrong and most of them are behind you. Nonetheless, it's a range.

Now, you have pocket aces. Pocket aces is both (1) the best unimproved hand and (2) a hand very unlikely to improve when beat. This is exactly why you want to be heads up whenever possible. When you are heads up, there's only one hand that has a chance of beating you, which is crucial because your hand isn't likely to improve.

So, if your judgment is that you have enough equity in the pot to continue against BTN's range (and, by the way, I don't dispute this for one second), then you generally want to blow out anyone else you can. As I said, it is very seldom that you actually want your unimproved aces to go to a multi-way showdown.

Chopper

10-07-2009, 01:45 AM

#10 (permalink)

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i am not forgetting ranges. i am just not concerned with them anymore in this hand because they no longer make sense as to beating us.

let me clarify...MP3 3bet us, but hasnt done shit since. i doubt its 77, and it cant be a drawing hand because there just arent any draws. BTN had something big preflop, likely still has something big, but because he is short now, he is overplaying it in an attempt to get his money all in hoping he is best. his metrics suggest a wide range pf, but he cold-capped us? that isnt that wide when there is a raise, 3bet, and he decides to cap. and, it isnt mid-pp's under TT, unless he is a complete retard. again, there are no sensible draws to hands other than 2 outs or 5. and, i hold 2 of the Aces, so his "kicker" doesnt bother me if he capped A7/A8 and is severely overplaying it. since he is short, he may be doing something really stupid.

however, as for multi-way and blowing others out....i only worry about MP3 and i have him smoked according to his line. so, i am not thinking about a range. he is playing this like another overpair or AKish. AK, i smash and would be a fool to knock him off. 99-QQ have two outs, and they dont worry me at this point with one card to come.

the more i debate/think about this hand, the more i kick myself for not seeing this sooner. i am so ridiculously ahead of any "logical" holdings that i should not have been worried about BTN either. and, since he was all in, i should have turned my focus to MP3 and planned a new line as to how to keep him around since he is virtually drawing dead.

that is greedy, but i think it is justifiable here.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

LawDude

10-07-2009, 03:29 AM

#11 (permalink)

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Here's the problem, though. Unless you think both villains have unimproved pocket pairs, what you are doing when you allow people to stay in a pot with unimproved AA is cutting your equity. Each player you let stay in who has a pair with a card on the board cuts your equity about 20 percent. This means you better be getting a 25 percent larger pot in the end by letting them stay in.

This is the math behind the statement "don't slowplay aces". And it's true. Now, if you can put your villains on hands that either didn't hit the board, are dominated by you, or are lower pocket pairs, then you want them to stay in. But anyone who has made their pair on the flop is cutting into your equity significantly and you want them out of there.

Chopper

10-07-2009, 03:55 AM

#12 (permalink)

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i guess what i am saying/asking is....what else could it be?

AK doesnt stick around unless its BTN bluffing off his stack and praying for an A. AQ/AJ/AT ditto, and AJ/AT probably dont cold-cap. KQ? nope.

pretty much has to be pocket pairs, right?

MP1 and MP3 could have sets, but they would have raised pretty soon in such a big, multiway pot, right? so, 77 and 88 are out. that leaves 99-KK.

there are no straight draws for hands that would be involved in a capped pot, or call 3 cold pre. there isnt a flush possible. so, what else is left? 99-KK. and, i have those smoked.

there is a total of 4 outs (schooling) and only one card to come. i think that is the very definition of when it's ok to slowplay, right? very few outs against and necessary for the villains to catch up and/or feel like they could be ahead?

you all know me better than to slowplay too terribly often. however, i think given the reads, and the legitimate accuracy behind them at this point, i think its justifiable.

if you saw their hands (fundamental theorem), would you raise MP3 out when he has only 2 outs and likely folds to 2 BBs back to him? i think you would let him stay in and pay you one more on the river....possibly two if he sensed weakness and got jiggy with the side pot. he was an aggro villain, so bluffy with worse is highly possible AND it doesnt cost you your bet from the turn because he will at least call one more.

thats the way i see it. and, i doubt the situation will ever come up again....that i will notice.

i never saw MP3's hand, but i saw BTN obviously. care to know what it was? at the time it surprised me, but not after all this review. its really only one of a very few possibilities.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

KoRnholio

10-07-2009, 06:38 AM

#13 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by LawDude

You're forgetting that this guy had 4.6BB to start the hand with, and put 2 of them in cold preflop. You're saying he shows up with 74/72/42? Gimme some of that crack, it must be good.

Honestly though, you are focusing way too much on that hud stat and failing to use all the other, much more pertinent, facts.

Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.

asdpikas

10-07-2009, 10:24 AM

#14 (permalink)

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55/25/1 is borderline maniac FR
AF depends on VPiP. AF 1 for a 20/12 is passive, but for a 55/25 it is aggressive
The more hands you play the more flops u miss and check/fold or make marginal hands and c/call down HU. This brings down your AF even if you play pretty aggro otherwise.
So, a 20/12/1.5 is more or less a straightforward player, but this fish is playing almost 3x the amount of hands.

consider my FR stats and what you think of my style.
22/14/2.2
villain plays more than twice the hands than me and raises more than my full vpip range. His AF of 1 equates to my AF of 2.2 postflop.

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Chopper

10-07-2009, 01:14 PM

#15 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by asdpikas

i know that stuff, but it isnt maniacally aggressive post flop in my experience. yes, a bit bluffy, but not all out jamming every street at every opportunity. and, yes, its hard to run a 2 for AF if you are seeing 55% of your hands. the AF of 1, in conjunction with 55 vpip, is more indicative of overplaying marginal hands than just being a douchebag bettor and raiser. if he didnt have something he thought was strong, he would back off, whereas a 1.7 or 2 wouldnt, he would just continue to blow me off the pot....or try.

so, again, he cold-capped. so, that has to be fairly tight, imo. and, he doesnt just go balls out w/o some kind of hand. he is going balls out here on a flop that shouldn't have hit a "logical" range.....even for him. so, it suggests he is overplaying something. its a pocket pair or a big ace, and big aces arent 3betting this turn. that leaves us with pp's, and i beat all of those but 77 and 88.....which would be a stretch to cold-cap with pre.

the more we go, the more solid i am getting in my read....almost argumentative now. i apologize, that isnt the intent. of course, i also know the results...lol. but, they make perfect sense once you see them.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

BennyLaRue

10-07-2009, 01:43 PM

#16 (permalink)

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Results?

Chopper

10-07-2009, 02:26 PM

#17 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by BennyLaRue

Results?

thank you....someone finally asked...lol.

BTN had QQ. i never saw the others. but, i assume MP3 dropped TT/JJ or AK. likely AK.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

DrivingDog

10-08-2009, 10:36 PM

#18 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Chopper

Quote:

Originally Posted by BennyLaRue

Results?

thank you....someone finally asked...lol.

BTN had QQ. i never saw the others. but, i assume MP3 dropped TT/JJ or AK. likely AK.

Pretty much guaranteed to be QQ+ once he caps preflop and goes nuts on the low board. He's not spazzy enough to have 77 or 88 here imo. Your hand is pure gold!

Since btn's going AI sooner or later the only question is how best to get value/protect your hand.

I like capping the flop because the pot is so big they'll be putting in loose bets there, and your bets are taken less seriously. Check-raising the turn is like waving a red flag that makes everyone fold their overcards.

"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).

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