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JeffreyGB
Old 03-10-2005, 06:26 AM     Post subject: Low Pocket Pairs #1 (permalink)  
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In my NL play, I've recently adapted myself to the power of the low pocket pair hitting a set on the flop (kudos to ilikeaces!). Obviously, a big part of that comes from being able to hit a huge payday (or even double up) the 12% of the time that you hit. If you don't hit on the flop, it's an easy laydown under most circumstances.

In limit, you don't have the potential to hit a payday with them the same way. So, how do you play pocket pairs? My current thinking is (from what I recall of SSH + what I reason out) limp pretty much anything lower than TT (possibly raising 99 or 88 if there's only one caller). Fold to a raise unless the pot is multiway.

How multiway are you looking for? Obviously 8 people makes this an easy call. With a PFR raise, chances are you'll be able to extract at least a couple BB if you hit. You're 1:8 to hit, so would that lead to wanting at least 4 others in to cold-call and pretty much always leave you wanting to call post limp/from blinds?

When you hit your set, how do you extract the most from it? How do you play it if there's a straight draw on the board?

- Jeffrey

(I went 0 for somewhere around 15 pocket pairs setting tonight. Does that make me due? )
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Gatlin Dan
Old 03-10-2005, 06:48 AM #2 (permalink)  
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you read SSH so you should know that every hand is an independant event and the cards have no memory. Just because you went o for 15 doesn't mean you are any more likely to hit a set the next time. Your odds will be the same.

As far as playing pocket pair and flopped sets.
I will limp from any position with any pocket pair. I will raise TT from any position. I will call two cold with any pocket pair if I have at least two other cold-callers in front of me.

I think you can limp with any pocket pair profitably because they pay off so well when you do hit, that you can occassionally pay to see the flop for an extra bet if it is raised behind you. Because of the nature of the set being hard to detect, you can often get lots of extra bets from callers.

I like to wait for the turn to raise after flopping a set if the board in uncoordinated and rainbow. With a straight or flush draw, I'm going to raise a bet in an unraised pot to make drawing to the straight or flush unprofitable. If it is a raised pot, I find myself waiting for the turn to raise.
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Fnord
Old 03-10-2005, 10:06 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Overall, small to medium pocket pairs excell when you can either often get in for 1 small bet or the game is really aggro post-flop allowing you to win multiple bets from holdings you have crushed on the flop.

Alright, best to think of these in groups:

22-55
These are the baby pocket pairs. They really need a set to win. You won't flop open ended often and will suffer some set over set beats. Also, these hands don't tend to win showdows as often unimproved because a two pair board will often counterfeit the pair in your hand (it's not uncommon for 22 to be the nut low!)

In a tight game I will limp them behind a two limpers, maybe one limper depending on who it is, my position, aggression of the table, etc. As the game becomes more loose/passive pre-flop you can open limp them from any position (most live games qualify.) I will only cold call them behind lots of other cold-calls, preferably with position. Also, I will call any single raise from the blinds with them if the pot is going to be 3+ way. Worst case, you're making a small mistake playing these in an unprofitable spot so if you want to just play a hand or not look like too much of a rock...

66 & 77
These hands start the medium pocket pair range. Unlike the smaller pairs these guys are more likely to flop open ended (always beating a wheel), less likely to lose set over set and you're safer picking up a pot with them because you're more likely to have the best pair and not get counterfeit.

I will open limp these UTG at just about any table. Sometimes I raise. Sometimes I will try to isolation raise a single loose limper with them as well. I will only cold call them behind lots of other cold-calls, preferably with position. Also, I will call any single raise from the blinds with them if the pot is going to be 3+ way. If a blind stealer is really out of line, they're able to be 3-bet. Also a good 3-bet vs a true blue maniac.

88 & 99
Similar thoughts as 66/77. However, these guys have more firepower. I almost always open 99 for a raise when I get the chance. I'm also more inclined to cold call behind another cold caller with these hands as I figure I can pick up a pot unimproved every now and then. They make good 3-bet hands against known loose raisers. Finally, against a large field of loose limpers, you should be raising these for value as they will win more than their fair share.
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JeffreyGB
Old 03-10-2005, 02:12 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatlin Dan
you read SSH so you should know that every hand is an independant event and the cards have no memory. Just because you went o for 15 doesn't mean you are any more likely to hit a set the next time. Your odds will be the same.
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Sed
Old 03-10-2005, 03:09 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Fnord,

What do you consider a loose preflop raiser?

I know to avoid PFR under 5% without the goods. But where is the cutoff for a a situation like a 99 3-bet?

- sed
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ChezJ
Old 03-10-2005, 03:30 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 i think the most frustrating situation is to flop a set with a 2 flush on the board. you are never going to get rid of the flush chaser, and one bet on the flop will only give him odds to draw on the turn. you basically have to wait until the turn to bet, unless you happen to be right next to someone who bets the flop and you have the opportunity to raise everyone else out. (and even then, the original bettor could be betting a draw.)

you have to pray for a bad turn, which in my experience comes 4 out of 5 times. then you can't lay it down, so you go into chase mode and pray for a boat on the river. and even when you miss there, the pot is now so big you can't fold the river, so you lose even more. :P

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Chicago_Kid
Old 03-10-2005, 05:04 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChezJ
i think the most frustrating situation is to flop a set with a 2 flush on the board. you are never going to get rid of the flush chaser, and one bet on the flop will only give him odds to draw on the turn. you basically have to wait until the turn to bet, unless you happen to be right next to someone who bets the flop and you have the opportunity to raise everyone else out. (and even then, the original bettor could be betting a draw.)

you have to pray for a bad turn, which in my experience comes 4 out of 5 times. then you can't lay it down, so you go into chase mode and pray for a boat on the river. and even when you miss there, the pot is now so big you can't fold the river, so you lose even more. :P

ChezJ
I definitely sweat it when I flop a set with a coordinated board with lots of people in. With 6-7 players, someone always seems to be on the flush/str8 draw. I just buckle down and fire at 'em...because often I notice that there might be 2 people on the same flush, hurting both their chances.

I flopped trip K's last night UTG with a huge field, and uncoordinated board. I capped the flop to a CO reraise. Then I lost on a runner-runner 4 str to the CO...23BB pot down the tubes. Bummer...
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RiverMonkey
Old 03-10-2005, 07:38 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChezJ
i think the most frustrating situation is to flop a set with a 2 flush on the board. you are never going to get rid of the flush chaser, and one bet on the flop will only give him odds to draw on the turn. you basically have to wait until the turn to bet, unless you happen to be right next to someone who bets the flop and you have the opportunity to raise everyone else out. (and even then, the original bettor could be betting a draw.)
I completely agree, but here's something I've been struggling with:

You are in a game where people chase their flush draws ( or str8 draws) whether they have the the correct odds or not. My experience is that they still chase the flush/str8 regardless of the odds the pot is laying them.

Do you still wait for the turn to bet on your set? The thinking being that you don't want to invest $$ into your set until you have reasonable confidence that it will hold up.

Or, do you pump up the pot now regardless? The thinking being that yah, the turn card might give someone a str8 or a flush, but you might also pair the board and fill up for yer boat which will really get paid off by those str8s and/or flushes.

In other words, do the implied odds from the set holding up and getting paid off and/or you hitting your full boat, make up for the times you put in bets on your set, but lose to a flush or str8 (a reverse implied odds situation).

In order to assess any given situation, you'd have to make assumption about how many people are left in the hand, what their holdings are, and what the future action will be in the hand.

Does anyone care to lay out some of the relevant, possible situations and do the EV/pot equity calcs?

Any words-of-wisdom without the math to back it up would be ok too
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ChezJ
Old 03-10-2005, 08:11 PM #9 (permalink)  
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 the way it usually turns out is: you flop your set and it's checked to you and you have no choice but to bet the flop because the raise/checkraise that you want just ain't gonna happen. and yes, this doesn't really make much of a difference because your loose opponents are going to chase their draws regardless of the odds.

you are actually very likely to fill up, but psychologically it just feels like it never happens when you need it most. but when you do fill up with a card that completes your opponent's draw, oh man is that a good feeling, and it probably pays you back for all your previous beats.

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Gatlin Dan
Old 03-11-2005, 08:42 AM #10 (permalink)  
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In games where there are a lot of players who seem to have no concept of pot odds and will draw to their flush, open ended str8 or gutshot for that matter, no matter the odds, I pump the pot with as many bets as I can when I flop a set. With so many people in the pot as is common in the stakes I play, there have to be unprofitable calls even if one or two of them make a profitable call on the straight or flush draw. if I pump the pot up, they are more likely to stay in, even if they have no reason to continue to be. I do everything I can to bloat the pot up so I can get maximum payoff when it does hold up, especially on the flop. I will also raise and re-raise on the turn if the pot is still 4 or more handed. If a lot of people fold on the turn, or the turn makes four two a flush or four to a straight, I back off and check call.
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Fnord
Old 03-11-2005, 08:45 AM #11 (permalink)  
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If drawing to a flush or OSD on an unpaired board is wrong, then I don't want to be right.

Anyway, with a set just get as much money as you can in the pot on the flop and turn. You have a redraw to a full house, hence the other draws aren't as much of a threat to you. Everyone else is pretty much crushed so get your money in!
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Fnord
Old 03-12-2005, 08:48 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Opps...

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Fnord is Button with 9, 9.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 4 folds, CO raises, Fnord 3-bets, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls, CO caps, Fnord calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (13.33 SB) 3, 3, 6 (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, CO bets, Fnord raises, UTG+1 folds, CO 3-bets, Fnord calls.

Turn: (9.66 BB) 4 (2 players)
CO bets, Fnord calls.

River: (11.66 BB) 9 (2 players)
CO bets, Fnord raises, CO calls.

Final Pot: 15.66 BB

Results in white below:
CO has Jc Js (two pair, jacks and threes).
Fnord has 9s 9h (full house, nines full of threes).
Outcome: Fnord wins 15.66 BB.
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