www.flopturnriver.com

Poker Forum

Over 1,246,000 Posts!

Already Registered? Username: Password: Remember Forgot Password
Tweet

Lose if I call, win if I raise

LinkBack

Thread Tools

Display Modes

pawn_k4

01-29-2006, 01:51 AM Post subject: Lose if I call, win if I raise

#1 (permalink)

Join Date: Jan 2006

Posts: 4

Let's say I'm holding 54o in the BB in a 5/10 game. Four callers to me and I check.

Flop: K 3 6

Three callers join me. Pot = $45

Turn: J

I check and 2 others call. Pot = $65.

For this example, let's say that player_1 holds K3 and Player_2 holds K4. My only hope of winning is to hit the straight.

Let's say I do make the straight this time.

This is where things get murky for me.
If I simply call the river bet, I lose money in the long run. The only winning situation for me is to raise and have both players call (or reraise).

If both fold to my raise, I lose money.
If only one calls my raise, I lose money. (Talking about long term here).

So what seems on the surface to be a most favorable play is not a certainty at all.

Poker Stove gives me a 19% chance of making the straight in this setup. I'll use that for the following:

Let's repeat this play 100 times:
81 times I miss the river and fold.
81 x 20(my total bet) = $1620 lost.

19 times I make the straight.

If I just call the river or both players fold to my raise:
Pot = $105

gain = Pot - 30(my total bets) = $75

gain = 19 x 75 = $1425
1620 - 1425 = $195 loss

If one player calls my raise:
Pot = $115

gain = Pot - 40(my total bets) = $75

gain = 19 x $75 = $1425
1620 -1425 = $195 loss

Raise called by both players:
Pot = $135

gain = Pot - $40(my total bets) = $95

19 x 95 = $1805
1805 - 1620 = $185 gain. The more raises that come, the better.

So it would appear that my fortunes on this play would depend on the type of opponents I have and cutting my losses by not raising until the river. I would likely lose to the Rock types and calling stations. Loose aggressives would be ideal. One LAG and one calling station would not be good for me either.

Are there other situations like this or is this just a drawing problem?
How can you tell in advance when you are coming into a situation like this? I couldn't run through these mental gymnastics with a 15 second clock ticking.

Play for FREE and practice your game at...

Join the FTR Poker Forum to disable these banners and start posting!

Mike_Ann

01-29-2006, 03:00 AM

#2 (permalink)

Join Date: Jan 2006

Posts: 61

when You win the pot will be much more than $105. I think that's what you're missing here.
If you call the flop that'll make $75 pot
if you call the turn that'll make $ 105 pot
the river if 2 caller no raise will be $135 pot. or even more if you check raise them.
the pot odd is correct you call them and you'll make money by that 19% not losing them -195

pawn_k4

01-29-2006, 03:38 AM

#3 (permalink)

Join Date: Jan 2006

Posts: 4

thanks for your response but the numbers are correct.

Preflop:
5 callers at $5 = $25

flop:
4 callers at $5 = $20 + $25 = $45

turn:
3 callers at $10 = $30 + $45 = $75

river:
3 callers at $10 = $30 + $75 = $105

euphoricism

01-29-2006, 05:08 AM

#4 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Mar 2005

Location: Your place or my place

Posts: 3,610

So what you've proven is, "Drawing without odds is gaurenteed to lose us money". Um. Ok.

<Staxalax> Honestly, #flopturnriver is the one thing that has improved my game the most.
Directions to join the #flopturnriver Internet Relay Chat - Come chat with us!

midas06

01-29-2006, 05:18 AM

#5 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jun 2005

Location: NZ

Posts: 2,196

Amazing that.

elipsesjeff

01-29-2006, 05:21 AM

#6 (permalink)

Moderator

Join Date: Jul 2004

Location: Northern Virginia

Posts: 4,900

elipsesjeff is an unknown quantity at this point

I really don't understand what is going on here. But I bet the turn.

Check out my videos at Grinderschool.com

More Full Ring NLHE Cash videos than ANY other poker training site. Training starts at $10/month.

aleksandr

01-29-2006, 08:35 AM

#7 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Jan 2005

Posts: 305

I check and 2 others call. Pot = $65.

I missed a raise somewhere and I'm a bit confused about this whole plan. Basically what you're saying is that if you make your straight you want as many raises as possible on the river - k cool. Thereby you want to be playing against aggressive players that you can count on them raising or falling for a checkraise on the river to give you good implied odds.

Operation Learn to Read
Reads: 7 posted
Money: $31
SNGs: 0
MTTs: 0

Ragnar4

01-29-2006, 08:38 AM

#8 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Sep 2005

Location: Billings, Montana

Posts: 1,284

19%

So what you're drawing to is an open ended straight draw.. Correct? (8 outs X 2.2% = shade under 19%)

Drawing odds is all about knowing 2 things. 1: What are the odds of you hitting your hand. and 2: How much of the pot are you responsible for. The 2nd part is ridiculously important.

In this situation. You are responsible for 33% of the money that goes into the pot. But you're going to hit your hand 19% of the time. Whoa nellie!!! You lose 14% of the money that you're putting into the pot every time you make this call.

Making an up and down straight draw a poor choice against only 2 players. (We call this underlay.)

The only time you get overlay (the opposite of under-lay) is when you've got 5 other players in the pot with you. you're responsible for 16.5% of the pot, and you're going to win 19% of the time. Giving you a 2.5% overlay, and you actually stand to earn 2.5% of the money that goes into the pot back every time you make that call.

You must also remember that any time you calculate pot odds, count the bets of your opponents, and not your own bets. Don't count the money you put into the pot, and the math just gets simple. You're going to hit this hand 1 out of 5 times, meaning you need at least 30 dollars in the pot that isn't yours in order to put 6 dollars towards trying to win the pot.

Go back to poker stove and try this hand again with 5 players not including yourself and try again. Betchya make money in the long run. 4 players not including yourself will lose money over time, but only a little bit. (it's almost break even.)

The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?

Demiparadigm

01-29-2006, 12:14 PM

#9 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Feb 2005

Location: Party 6 max

Posts: 1,602

you only lose $10 when you miss the straight. (your call on the turn) since you will fold on the river unimproved.
What you put in already does not factor in to your equation, since the money is no longer yours.

I think that is where your math is off.

The pot is $65, you need 4 to 1 odds, 4x10 = $40, you have a profitable call.

So you lose $10 81 times ($810)
and win at least $65 19 times ($1235)
plus any bets you make on the river.

good luck

To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.

pawn_k4

01-29-2006, 07:22 PM

#10 (permalink)

Join Date: Jan 2006

Posts: 4

Demiparadighm,

pf= $5 flop=$5 turn=$10 =$20 total

Pot after turn bets = $75
potential gain = $55 (Pot - my bets)

81 x 20 = $1620 loss
19 x 55 = $1045
1620 - 1045 = $575 loss

Ragnar, this is my point. What appears to be a fold situation may not be so after all if you're in with the right kind of opponents.

What is old news to you veterans is a revelation to a noob like me.

So what I'm asking about is other situations where negative odds can become positive.
Hopefully, this is more clear than the original post I made.

Ragnar4

01-29-2006, 08:03 PM

#11 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Sep 2005

Location: Billings, Montana

Posts: 1,284

Just be careful Pawn.

Implied odds is a path to the dark-side, and more often a leak than a gain. People will call with longshot bets and think to-themselves. I'll get odds if I can somehow get these boyz to cap at the river....

The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?

euphoricism

01-29-2006, 08:23 PM

#12 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Mar 2005

Location: Your place or my place

Posts: 3,610

Well, you've also got some folding equity which can make up some off the lost % points. Hard to quantify that, though. Betting your draws becomes standard at about 3/6 - 5/10 6max.

<Staxalax> Honestly, #flopturnriver is the one thing that has improved my game the most.
Directions to join the #flopturnriver Internet Relay Chat - Come chat with us!

Xanadu

01-29-2006, 08:24 PM

#13 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: May 2005

Location: st. paul, MO

Posts: 966

After all your posts on this thread, I am still not sure exactly what your question is. Is it whether hands like 54 are playable in the first place? You can't just add up all the money you've put in the pot and compare the pot size to your winning chances to see if it's a profitable hand. Each decision on each street is made indepedently. A seperate analysis of winning chances, pot odds, implied odds, fold equity must be made for every decision. For example:

1. preflop ... your decision is correct ... you are in the BB and check with a crap hand ... raising is out of the question.

2. flop ... you have an OESD to the nuts in a 5-way pot. Your pot equity is a shade over 32% (31.5 for the oesd, a tiny bit for winning with a pair, trips, 2-pair). As long as 3 people call you, this is a bet for value as you are putting in a smaller share of the bets on that street than your winning %. 2 people calling is only very slightly -EV, so a bet is correct.

3. turn ... you missed your draw, but still have about a 17.5% chance at making the best hand (your 19% # is off a bit). There are 3 left in the pot. You will have to put in 25% of the money if you bet, but will win a little less than 18% of the time. A bet here almost definitely has a negative expected value. If you knew that either all 3 would call or all 3 would fold, the bet may be slightly profitable. The reason for this is that if all 3 call, they will be somewhat more likely to pay you off if you hit your draw on the river as you bet without odds on the turn (which would be a mistake on your part). Problem is, most of the time you will get 1 or 2 callers in which case you are paying too much to see the river when there is a chance you could see it for free. I suspect you would need a fold equity in the range of 15-20% for this bet to be profitable. I could do the math for you, but it would take a while, and deal with setting up and solving a cubic equation (1 or 2 opponents is much simpler) with 4 cases. If you really want to know I would be happy to demonstrate. Bottom line, it is unreasonably to expect all 3 opponents to fold 15+% of the time, so betting the turn is a mistake. (Interestingly enough, 3 opponents may be the worst time to be betting an OESD on the turn with miniscule chance of winning by spiking a pair ... with 1 or 2 your chances of getting the required fold equity increase, and with 4 or more, your bet is more for value)

4. river ... what you do here does not depend on making profitable your decisions on past streets. What is involved is check/folding if you miss your draw and betting/raising when you do hit your draw in the manner you suspect will get the most money from your opponents from the information you have from the hand and your opponents' prior actions.

Xanadu

01-29-2006, 08:39 PM

#14 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: May 2005

Location: st. paul, MO

Posts: 966

One more thing I left out about the turn last post ... It is correct to call in pretty much any situation. Even if the action goes: you check, bet, raise, 3-bet, you should probably still call unless you strongly suspect that both the bettor and raiser will fold to the 3-bet (unlikely). These people like their hands a lot, and since you will definitely win and almost never split when you hit your draw, the implied odds make the call correct in any situation (this is not necessarily true if the board has 2 each of 2 suits, in which case there is a good chance that 1 or more of your opponents has a hand with a flush draw which subtracts either 2 or 4 of your outs).

koolmoe

01-30-2006, 12:52 AM

#15 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jun 2004

Location: Drowning in prosperity

Posts: 1,279

Quote:

Originally Posted by pawn_k4

pf= $5 flop=$5 turn=$10 =$20 total

What appears to be a fold situation may not be so after all if you're in with the right kind of opponents.

What is old news to you veterans is a revelation to a noob like me.

You've got it wrong. You should not fold the flop or the turn in this situation. You can't consider the preflop and flop bets as part of your turn decision.

Doing so implies that every time you flop an OESD you miss your draw on the turn. If you don't understand this point, you need to think about it for a while. As a thought exercise, consider that the way you did your analysis would be the same if the board came: flop - KJ3, turn - 6. But clearly calling a bet on that flop would be terrible. If you can figure out why the two are different, you should be able to see why your analysis is wrong.

What your analysis suggests is that when you get to the turn with an OESD and nothing else, you generally will lose money in the long run. It doesn't say anything about the equity you had along the way. Also, even though you will lose money overall from the aggregate of these situations, you will lose more money if you fold your draw on the turn instead of calling when the pot is offering you 4:1 odds or better. Make sense?

However, when you are in a 5 handed pot with an OESD on the flop, you will profit from any bets that go into the pot if at least three of your opponents call.

When you flop an OESD, the turn changes the value of your hand drastically. If you make your straight, your equity will more than double usually, while if the turn doesn't help you, your equity will generally be cut in half. But ignoring the times you turn your straight has given you the impression that you need to pick up a lot of bets on the river to make your correct play profitable, and that's just flat out wrong.

Poker is freedom

ArcticKnight

01-30-2006, 03:52 AM

#16 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Dec 2004

Location: golf course

Posts: 416

Quote:

Originally Posted by koolmoe

Quote:

Originally Posted by pawn_k4

Post of the day!!! Excellent explanation

Gone golfing ..see ya in the Fall of 2006
PS. What did the snail on the turtle's back say?
Wheeeeeeeee........

pawn_k4

01-31-2006, 02:47 AM

#17 (permalink)

Join Date: Jan 2006

Posts: 4

koolmoe, thanks for that response but at no point did I say anything about folding the flop or the turn. If you look back at my OP I said:

Let's repeat this play 100 times:
81 times I miss the river and fold.
81 x 20(my total bet) = $1620 lost.

Your point about the turn bet decision standing on its own is well taken.

As for needing raises on the river to make a profit I would like to see a played out demonstration of how that conclusion is wrong. Change the betting patterns any way necessary to make the point but leave the cards as is and the number of players on each round as given along with the 19% hit rate.

koolmoe

01-31-2006, 03:50 AM

#18 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jun 2004

Location: Drowning in prosperity

Posts: 1,279

Quote:

Originally Posted by pawn_k4

koolmoe, thanks for that response but at no point did I say anything about folding the flop or the turn.

Yes you did, but it was not in your original post.

Quote:

Originally Posted by pawn_k4

What appears to be a fold situation may not be so after all if you're in with the right kind of opponents.

I took this to mean that you think you should fold at some point prior to the river if your opponents are too passive to call a river raise.

Quote:

Originally Posted by pawn_k4

81 x 20(my total bet) = $1620 lost.

This is your mistake, and several people have explained why.

Quote:

Originally Posted by pawn_k4

As for needing raises on the river to make a profit I would like to see a played out demonstration of how that conclusion is wrong. Change the betting patterns any way necessary to make the point but leave the cards as is and the number of players on each round as given along with the 19% hit rate.

Calling the turn is more profitable than folding the turn. As for the specific hand you laid out, if you raise the flop and still get three callers, you will increase your EV.

It's pretty clear you don't understand how pot equity changes during a hand. Not trying to be harsh, but you are very confused if you think that the hand you laid out "seems like a fold situation" anywhere besides a blank river against any type of opponents.

Poker is freedom

Latest Poker News
KoRnholio	05-26-2012, 03:08 PM Australia Legalized Online Poker coming up in next 6 to 12 Months
According to an email sent out by Mark Bryan, a gaming analyst at Merrill Lynch, the Australian government plans to legalize online poker sometime in the next six to 12 months. This move will coincide ... more at Poker Blogs »

« Previous Thread | Next Thread »

Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Email this Page
Display Modes
Linear Mode Switch to Hybrid Mode Switch to Threaded Mode

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads You may not post replies You may not post attachments You may not edit your posts BB code is On Smilies are On [IMG] code is On HTML code is Off Trackbacks are On Pingbacks are On Refbacks are On Forum Rules

All times are GMT. The time now is 11:49 AM.

Play Texas Holdem Online, Online Texas Holdem Strategy, & Poker Forum

This is not a gambling website.

Poker Forum

Over 1,246,000 Posts!

Poker Forum

All Other (Limit) Poker

Lose if I call, win if I raise

Play for FREE and practice your game at...