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Long winded conclusion on midpairs

  
 
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bigspenda73
Old 08-16-2006, 04:59 AM     Post subject: Long winded conclusion on midpairs #1 (permalink)  
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 Ok, some background, Im liking 6max and all the advice everyone is giving is great. I have currently been designing a hand chart for myself for the game I am in and for the future. It is a little tight for my current limits (.1/.2 and .25/.50) but I believe it is right for where I eventually would like to be (3/6 and 5/10).

Anyways....
I have been giving much thought to midpairs (for the sake of this discussion when I say midpair I refer to 77/88/99) and have come to a conclusion.

In hypers guide he says to fold to a 3bet pf unless one has the goods. Well I played a ton of hands over the weekend and openraised midpairs from UTG/UTG+1 and was raised by the CO/button enough times to realize I needed to decide what to do.

Without further ado, here is my conclusion.
----side note, I believe my calculations are correct, if not, feel free to bitch slap and correct me.

Refering to midpair play from UTG/UTG+1
At an aggressive table, cap/call/fold depending on position of 3bettor (is it from the button/CO or is it from the blinds or UTG?) If you get 3bet from the button/CO and call you will have to c/f the flop is you miss. Let’s fold 99-77 in this spot, having to face a flop donk which could hold multiple overcards is a tough proposition. TT will likely only see 1 overcard and thus can be played more profitably. All depends on read on one’s opponent.

But wait....

Let’s look into this further…
We hold 88 and raise from UTG+1, CO folds, then the button raises. Blinds fold and we cold call. We must ask ourselves, would button 3bet with air, with overs, a small PP, or with a larger pair than ours?
The probability in my typical 6max game that we are in a coin flip is like 35%. The odds that he has an overpair are about 50%, the odds that he has a smaller pair are somewhere around 10%. 5% of the time he’ll raise with a hand such as A5s.
This means: we should win this pot is (.35*.55) + (.5*.19) + (.1*.81) + (.05*.69)=.41
This equals: 40%
Conclusions: Now that we know we should win this pot 40% of the time we can assume than ck/c the flop/turn/river are nearly mandatory after the PF actions.
The PF pot size will equal 7.5 SB
We will have to call 2.5BB the rest of the way
2.5BB to win 10BB
4-1 pot odds
We are only a 3-2 underdog in all general occasions.
Hence, if we can just ck/c every possible situation, folding the one’s where we know we cannot possibly win (i.e.-board of TJQK with a 4 flush) and get an extra 2BBs in when we set up then we are in a profitable situation. However, let’s look at how much we totally put into the pot. Assume a 2/4 game. We are in for $6 of a $15 pot PF. This means we hold a 40% stake in this pot. With our PF raises we are just to call down no matter what. On top of this, if we can fold when we know we are totally dead and gain extra bets check raising the turn then we are certain to hold an edge in this situation in the long run.
So, if we know that we can raise from UTG/UTG+1 with hand TT-77 and likely get just one caller/raiser then we are +EV.

OK, longwinded I know, and may only happen once in a blue moon. However, what does everyone think about just calling down the CO/button in this spot. I won't even c/r the flop if it comes 732r. Not sure if I have proven this to be +EV or not, but in my mind I'm going to play it this way.

I know there is surely a more generalized answer for this situation, or many other midpair situations. However, I feel folding is now out of the question to a 3bet (7.5-1 pot odds PF is a 2-3 situation) before the flop and now out of the question post flop.

Wow, that took forever, but my biggest leak at the moment has to be the play of my midpairs. Geez, I think I have too much free time.

Thanks for giving me a place to ramble on boyz
'spenda
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midas06
Old 08-16-2006, 05:32 AM #2 (permalink)  
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I think Hyper's advice on folding to a 3bet preflop if you are the original raiser is flawed anyway. If I recall correctly, he advised to do it if you were stealing with marginal hands/trash from LP/SB, not if you opened from EP.

Capping midpairs out of position is pretty spewy.
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midas06
Old 08-16-2006, 05:35 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Playing midpairs postflop is pretty read dependant. At lower limits you'll probably find you lose out on value most of the time by not check/raising a 732r flop, since a majority of your opponents won't be aggressive enough to fire 3 barrels at you. Getting the c/r in will get an extra SB in and allows you to get a bet in on every street.
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kyc12
Old 08-16-2006, 05:45 AM #4 (permalink)  

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Is your conclusion that it is only marginally profitable to play this way?

If so, and if you opp sometimes check after he miss on flop/turn/river (say he has AJ and the flop came KQx), you may not win 40% of all bets even if you win 40% of hands because he has position on you
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elipsesjeff
Old 08-16-2006, 05:55 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
The probability in my typical 6max game that we are in a coin flip is like 35%. The odds that he has an overpair are about 50%, the odds that he has a smaller pair are somewhere around 10%. 5% of the time he’ll raise with a hand such as A5s.
I think these are pretty far off. How many different combinations of AJo+, KQo+, and even ATs+? All of which are coinflip hands and all three are very standard 3bettable type hands when facing a raise from a TAG. Secondly, how many combinations of 88-AA are there and how many of 22-66? Use this as your basis of what percent you are behind and not the limited sample you got from your play over the weekend.

Also, you don't HAVE to check/fold the flop, but if there's an Ace on the flop its pretty standard. I"ll usually checkcall down if there is only 1 overcard on the flop unless an Ace flops, or a combination of KQ or KJ and stuff like that, where, its just not likely he could have a hand that would 3bet you and not have you beat.


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elipsesjeff
Old 08-16-2006, 05:57 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by midas06
Capping midpairs out of position is pretty spewy.
Not necessarily, if you're known to only cap with AA-JJ and AK, throwing in the occasional 99 and 88 here and there isn't horrible, against TAGs usually that are more likely to have overcards than overpairs. It's also fun the times you flop a set and get paid.


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midas06
Old 08-16-2006, 06:31 AM #7 (permalink)  
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not in a game where metagame isn't very important at all
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koolmoe
Old 08-16-2006, 06:32 AM #8 (permalink)  
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The truth is, there are very few situations that you can reliably fold to a three bet when you raise any hand preflop. It would have to be something like you raise Ax and get three bet by an opponent that will only three bet AA. You will be getting a minimum of 5:1 odds, which is enough to see a flop against most opponent ranges, particularly with a pair in the hole.

As for your post-flop analysis, it is incomplete because you will usually be out of position. You have to make some assumptions about how your opponent will play with hands that you are ahead of and behind. For example, with many hands like big pairs or broadways that spike a pair on the flop, you will end up having to put a bet in on every street, while his hands that you beat, like unimproved overcards and smaller pairs, he will likely check behind one or more streets if you allow him. This means you tend to lose more when behind and win less when you are ahead.

But, even if you put in the max when you would eventually lose (2.5 bets 60% of the time) and won the least when you would eventually win (7.5 BB 40% of the time), you still have a profitable situation (7.5*.4 - 2.5*.6 = 1.5 BB - rake =~ 1 BB), so your conclusion still holds even though you didn't consider the positional disadvantage.

Some knowledge of your opponent can further improve your win rate in this scenario, but in general I think you want to see a showdown when you hold a pair and get isolated preflop provided that your opponent's range is reasonable and not just big pairs. Actually, getting isolated is a whole lot better for you than getting cold-called since the BB is likely to come along.
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elipsesjeff
Old 08-16-2006, 06:36 AM #9 (permalink)  
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 Koolmoe, explain how you got 2.5 BB when you lose and 7.5 BB when you win?

I don't think I'm seeing it.


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bigspenda73
Old 08-16-2006, 06:45 AM #10 (permalink)  
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 You know, as I hit the submit button I realized what you were saying Kool. I tend to lose the max but not win the max in the theory. If I am up against AK, and say it bricks, then I likely could only win the likely cbet after the flop, and my lead out on the river to a check check turn. So that part is flawed. If I am against AA i lose the max 2.5BBs. Although if I am up say against QQ, JJ, TT then I will not always lose the max as well considering overcards or scary paired boards.

I still believe I should go all the way to showdown against the range of hands I proposed. My stake in the pot vs. what I have to call down is certainly +EV even minus the rake.

Jeff's reference to my numbers being off is certainly a thought. However, as passive as my game is, I feel my opponent will have an overpair the majority of the time if I am 3bet in that spot. Of course, as I move up in levels and the players become more aggressive, the overpair percentage will drop and the two overcard percentage could increase.

I just thought it was some food for thought.
I really think these have to be the hardest hands to play in LHE. Does anyone have an PT stats on these three hands (99/88/77)? I'd like to see if anyone is a marginal winner with them and if so, how do you play these?
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elipsesjeff
Old 08-16-2006, 07:21 AM #11 (permalink)  
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 From the beginning of the month (11.5k hands):



I play them g00t.

I usually check/fold them on the flop OOP facing a 3 bet, as there is nothing wrong with it. But i'm also not afraid to call down:


Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 6, 6.
1 fold, Hero raises, Button 3-bets, 2 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 7, T, 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero calls.

River: (6.75 BB) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

Final Pot: 6.75 BB

Results in white below:
Hero has 6h 6s (two pair, sevens and sixes).
Button has As 5s (one pair, sevens).
Outcome: Hero wins 6.75 BB.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 9, 9.
Hero raises, 2 folds, Button 3-bets, 2 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 6, J, 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero calls.

River: (6.75 BB) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 8.75 BB

Results in white below:
Hero has 9h 9d (two pair, nines and sixes).
Button has Tc Ts (two pair, tens and sixes).
Outcome: Button wins 8.75 BB.

I might add that the only reason why I'm negative when 3 bet preflop is because I've lost 3 sets. They have HUGE implied odds if you flop your set as you are more likely to get paid off and less likely to get sucked out on (lower variance) because your opponent has a good hand with little chance of improvement. Like this line versus opponent with a high % chance of an overpair:

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 5, 5.
Hero raises, Button 3-bets, 2 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 3, 7, 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero raises, Button 3-bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.75 BB) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero raises, Button calls.

River: (10.75 BB) Q (2 players)
Hero bets, Button raises, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 14.75 BB

Results in white below:
Hero has 5h 5s (three of a kind, fives).
Button has Qd Qh (three of a kind, queens).
Outcome: Button wins 14.75 BB.

Nevermind that I lost the hand, but the pot ended up being 30 SB on the river after I only invested 1 more SB preflop to call his raise. Sidenote: TAG more likely to call down and pay you off if he has a strong Ace (like AK) if you pretend to bluff the pot. His 3bet on the flop is only obvious of the overpair.


So, to answer your original question, when you think you are ahead then play it post flop, if you are behind, then fold.


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bigspenda73
Old 08-16-2006, 07:44 AM #12 (permalink)  
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 Damn, quick response. Thanks man.

You guys are too good, looking at your hands I can only realize we do play a different game, if you put a decimal infront of your limits you have my game. Ha, guess I have a ways to go to make some real money. However, running 15BB/100 at .1/.2 makes me a tidy 15 bucks a day, thats like a blind steal for you.

On a serious note, I think our games are just too different to really make comparisons on how to play these hands. My opponents are just not likely at all to 3bet with air. Yours are much more likely to make a play than mine are. However, I am preparing myself to move up quickly and do not want to get into any bad habits at these lower levels.
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koolmoe
Old 08-17-2006, 01:55 AM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
Koolmoe, explain how you got 2.5 BB when you lose and 7.5 BB when you win?

I don't think I'm seeing it.
Yeah, on second look it's an error I made translating his OP. It should be 3.75 BB (7.5 SB preflop), so the worst case scenario I presented would be 3.75*.4 - 2.5*.6 = 0 which would be slightly negative after the rake.
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