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LOL Who loses more on this hand?

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Demiparadigm

03-29-2006, 04:07 PM Post subject: LOL Who loses more on this hand?

#1 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Feb 2005

Location: Party 6 max

Posts: 1,602

SO this is mostly a poorly disguised bad beat post, but I realized there is a little discussion possible.
a few months ago, I cap this river.
Today I wanted to fold.

Poker Stars
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $2/$4
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is CO with K

UTG calls, UTG+1 raises, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, BB calls, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: K

(10.5SB, 3 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG+1 folds.

Turn: 2

(6.25BB, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero 3-bets, BB calls.

River: 8

(12.25BB, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero calls.

Results:
Final pot: 16BB

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euphoricism

03-29-2006, 04:38 PM

#2 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Mar 2005

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looks very similar to my one-outted hand I too posted as a poorly disguised bad beat post about a week ago

Theres just no way you can threebet there. One outters FTWWWWWWwwww

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elipsesjeff

03-29-2006, 05:16 PM

#3 (permalink)

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Location: Northern Virginia

Posts: 4,900

elipsesjeff is an unknown quantity at this point

I probably still cap this river. Some AK guys will freeroll here with you thinking they are going to split at worst. I dont mind paying off one outers.

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drmcboy

03-29-2006, 05:27 PM

#4 (permalink)

DrButtInski
Administrator

Join Date: Aug 2004

Posts: 9,601

^^^ I'm glad to see that because reading the original post I thought "Man, I suck (worse than I think)".

thenonsequitur

03-29-2006, 07:20 PM Post subject: Re: LOL Who loses more on this hand?

#5 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Nov 2004

Location: Location: Location

Posts: 637

I think it's a tough call.

First I'm going to assume that after he check-raises you on the river he has either a K or an 8 (lets discount the only other reasonable alternative, AA; or if you prefer, lump it in with the times he has K since you still win if he has AA). So you have to decide to 3-bet or to call.

There's only one 8 and one K left unkown, so frequency-wise they are both as likely. But more people will call two cold preflop with a K than an 8, making an 8 a little less likely. But he did go for a check/raise on the river when K will often bet out, making 8 a little more likely again. Overall I'd say the chance he has an 8 is just a little less than the chance he has a K. But that's not the whole story.

This is how I see it:

I'm going to assume that if he has an 8 and you 3-bet, he will always cap. And if he has a K and you 3-bet he will cap Z of the time (where Z is between 0 and 1).

If you raise and he has an 8 win -2 (as compared to a call).
If you raise and he has a K you win 2(Z)+1(1-Z)=1+Z

So lets say he has an eight X of the time, then you win money by 3-betting if:

-2(X) + (1+Z)(1-X) > 0
X < (1+Z)/(3+Z)

So if this statement is is true then you should 3-bet.

I think he has an 8 about X=45% of the time, and that when he has a K and you 3-bet he caps about Z=75% of the time. Plug it in and I get:

45%<46.6%

This is true, so I 3-bet here. Of course, if you come up with different X's and Z's than me, you might have a different answer. Also based on this equation, if you think he has an 8 less than 33.3% of the time, you should always 3-bet and if you think has an 8 more than 50% of the time, you should always call.

pokerfanatic

03-29-2006, 09:21 PM

#6 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

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i think i still raise if he has an 8 ohh well...

“Dream as if you’ll live forever. Live as if you’ll die today.” ~ James Dean ~

"Poker is a lot like sex, peoples perceived ability usually blinds the truth" ~ me ~

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euphoricism

03-29-2006, 10:14 PM

#7 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

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Location: Your place or my place

Posts: 3,610

Who check raises the turn here with a K? Oh, I dunno, no one. Who check raises the river here with a K? Oh, I dunno, no one. He'd donk a river king. Threebet2spew

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elipsesjeff

03-29-2006, 10:29 PM

#8 (permalink)

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Join Date: Jul 2004

Location: Northern Virginia

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Quote:

Originally Posted by euphoricism

Who check raises the turn here with a K?

Uh, lots 'o people.

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euphoricism

03-30-2006, 03:33 AM

#9 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

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Nah, king leads the flop, leads the turn. Theres no way this is a K

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elipsesjeff

03-30-2006, 04:10 AM

#10 (permalink)

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Join Date: Jul 2004

Location: Northern Virginia

Posts: 4,900

with no read, how can you say that?

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pokerfanatic

03-30-2006, 04:37 AM

#11 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Aug 2004

Location: 6max limit tables

Posts: 1,968

Quote:

Originally Posted by euphoricism

Nah, king leads the flop, leads the turn. Theres no way this is a K

I c/r aganst an argo with any hand i think i'm ahead in...

You can't say what a player will and will not do without some justification...

03-30-2006, 12:12 PM

#12 (permalink)

Guest

Posts: n/a

In my game a check raise means FIVE eights here. That's right, FIVE eights.

thenonsequitur

03-30-2006, 01:30 PM

#13 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Nov 2004

Location: Location: Location

Posts: 637

Quote:

Originally Posted by iopq

In my game a check raise means FIVE eights here. That's right, FIVE eights.

Online poker is rigged!

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